Showing posts with label european refugee crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label european refugee crisis. Show all posts

Monday, April 12, 2021

"Sofagate", refugees and EU-Turkish relations

I recently commented on EU-Turkey relations, in which current points negotiation include The range of issues includes the long-standing dispute between Turkey and Greece over Cyprus and maritime rights, Turkey's interventions in Libya and Syria, travel between Turkey and the EU, expanding the EU-Turkey customs union arrangement (which goes back to 1963), and human rights issues. (Europa geht auf die Türkei zu und lockt mit Zollunion und Visa-Freiheit Oberösterreichische Nachrichten 27.03.2021.)

Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan made a diplomatic snub of The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that gave headline writers something to label "Sofagate," in which European Concil President Charles Michel was given distintly privelged seating for an official photo-op and Von der Leyen was visibly snubbed.

It was diplomatic mischief on Erdoğan's part. But there is also reason to think that Michel was happüy to go along with it, because it was the EU Council that handled the diplomatic protocol in the meeting preparations. The Commission and the Council are both executive bodies of the EU. But the Commission is generally seen as representing more the EU institutions, while the Council is set up more as a body representing the member states as such. The protocol explanation for the Sofagate setup was that Michel was treated as a head of state and Von der Leyen as head of government, the implication being that the Commission President was higher representative of the EU than the Council President, which scored a point for Michel and the Commission in internal EU politics. (Sylvia Wörgetter, Welche Rolle spielte EU-Ratspräsident Michel?Oberösterreichische Nachrichten 10.04.2021)

Former Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker kinda-sorta agreed with the protocol point about the Council President being the senior official while adding: "'I think it would have been better to have her sitting at the same level' as Michel, 'but from a protocol point of view the president of the Council is No. 1.”" (Lily Bayer, Juncker tries to take the sting out of Sofagate Politico EU 04/07/2021)

But Erdoğan was no doubt happy to be seen snubbing a senior woman official of the EU.

In the previous post, I talked about the centrality of the 2016 refugee agreement in EU-Turkey relations. Gerald Knaus, head of the think tank European Stability Initiative (ESI) and an immigration activist, was one of the main players in putting together the 2016 deal. Broadkly speaking, the deal involved Turkey holding refugees, largely coming from Syria, in Turkey. The agreement assumed that Turkey would allow a certain number of refugees to come to the EU after having their asylum requests processed in Turkey. For asylum-seekers that fled to Greece, Turkey would be accept them back. In turn, Turkey would then be able to send an equal number of additional approved ssylum applicants to the EU. The idea was that the EU would regularly absorb a certain number of refugees from Turkey. And the facilities for the refugees in Turkey would be financed by the EU. The arrangement was designed to reduce the need for desperate refugees to undertake highly risky sea crossings to be able to seek asylum in the EU.

The basic assumptions of the deal were resonable. As Knaus wrote in Welche Grenzen brauchen wir? (2020):
Andere Kritiker erklärten, es sei absurd zu erwarten, dass Flüchtlinge und Asylsuchende in der Türkei sicher seien. Dabei leben in der Türkei nun bereits seit vielen Jahren Millionen Flüchtlinge, gehen Hunderttausende syrische Kinder in türkische Schulen. Die Türkei hat zudem eine lange Tradition, Asylsuchenden - darunter auch Afghanen - Aufenthalt zu gewahren, während der UNHCR Asylverfahren durchführte und Neuansiedlungen organisierte. Es sollte darum gehen, das türkische System durch Anreize und Unterstützung zu verbessern, zum Wohl von Schutzbedürftigen.

[{Some} critics said it was absurd to expect refugees and asylum seekers to be safe in Turkey. {But} millions of refugees have been living in Turkey for many years now, and hundreds of thousands of Syrian children are going to Turkish schools. Turkey has a long tradition of keeping asylum seekers - including Afghans - resident, while the UNHCR asylum procedures are carried out and resettlement organized. It should be about improving the Turkish system through incentives and support, for the benefit of those needing protection.]
But, as he also explains in that book and elsewhere, the processing of asylum seekers has not gone as planned. In Knaus' view, Greek officials with the approval of EU officials have failed to process asylum-seekers at a reasonable pace. Knaus believes it's a deliberate strategy of scaring refugees away from trying to head toward Europe. (See p. 196 in his book)

As the Oberösterreichische Nachrichten (Fünf Jahre Flüchtlingsdeal: Brüssel versucht einen Neustart mit Erdogan 20.03.2021) puts it:
Kernpunkt des Deals ist, dass die Türkei jeden Migranten, der irregulär auf die griechischen Inseln gelangt und keinen Anspruch auf Asyl hat, zurücknimmt. Im Gegenzug nimmt die EU für jeden rückgeführten Syrer einen anderen Syrer aus der Türkei auf. Für die Flüchtlingsbetreuung soll die Türkei wiederum mit bis zu sechs Milliarden Euro von der EU unterstützt werden.

Die Rückführung irregulär eingereister Migranten in die Türkei funktioniert jedoch kaum. Seit 2016 schickte die EU insgesamt nur rund 2740 Menschen zurück in die Türkei, wie die EU-Kommission mitteilte. Das liegt jedoch nicht an der Türkei, sondern daran, dass Griechenland teils massiv überfordert mit der Bearbeitung der Asylanträge war und ist.

Asylsuchende auf griechischen Inseln müssen monatelang, teilweise über ein Jahr, auf einen Ersttermin bei den Behörden warten. Viele von ihnen sitzen mehrere Jahre in den oft als menschenunwürdig kritisierten Camps, bis ihr Verfahren abgeschlossen wird. Immer wieder wurde der griechischen Regierung vorgeworfen, dieses Szenario bewusst zu provozieren, um damit möglichst viele Flüchtlinge abzuschrecken.

Umgekehrt nahmen EU-Staaten bisher 28.621 Migranten aus der Türkei auf – deutlich weniger als im Abkommen 2016 in Aussicht gestellt. Mit Beginn der Corona-Pandemie wurde der Mechanismus überhaupt ausgesetzt.

[The key point of the deal is that Turkey will take back any migrant who reaches the Greek islands irregularly and is not entitled to asylum. In return, the EU accepts another Syrian from Turkey for every Syrian repatriated. Turkey is to receive up to €6 billion in EU support for care of the refugees.

However, the repatriation of irregular migrants to Turkey hardly works. Since 2016, the EU has sent a total of only around 2,740 people back to Turkey, according to the EU Commission. However, this is not due to Turkey, but to the fact that Greece has been, and still is, massively overwhelmed with the processing of asylum applications.

Asylum seekers on Greek islands have to wait months, sometimes more than a year, for a first appointment with the authorities. Many of them sit in the camps, which are often criticized as inhumane, for several years until their trial is completed. Time and again, the Greek government has been accused of deliberately provoking this scenario in order to deter as many refugees as possible.

EU states have so far taken in 28,621 migrants from Turkey – significantly fewer than the 2016 agreement promised. With the onset of the corona pandemic, the mechanism was suspended completely.
As of last September, the UN refugee agency put the number of refugees in Syria at 3.6 million.

Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Turkey, the EU, and the US early in Biden's Presidential term

The EU is making moves to try to ease relations with Turkey and its authoritarian President Tayyip Erdoğan. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen of Germany and and European Council President Charles Michel of Belgium just held a meeting with Erdoğan in Ankara to discuss some major current issues. (EU-Spitzen beraten mit Erdogan über Beziehungen Oberösterreichische Nachrichten 06.04.2021) The EU Commission and the European Council are the two executive bodies of the European Union.

The range of issues includes the long-standing dispute between Turkey and Greece over Cyprus, Turkey's role in the conflicts in Libya and Syria, travel between Turkey and the EU, and human rights issues, including Turkey's recent decision to leave the Council of Europe treaty on combatting violence against women known as the Istanbul Convention. (Turkey quits Istanbul Convention on violence against women Deutsche Welle 20.03.2021)

Turkey's human and diplomatic club: refugees

One connection between Turkey and the EU that I don't think receives sufficient prominence in news reports is the 2016 deal Angela Merkel negotiated with Erdoğan to hold millions of refugees from conflicts in the Greater Middle East. Robin Alexander gave a good account of the negotiating of that deal in Die Getriebenen: Merkel und die Flüchtlingspolitik (2018).The Oberösterrichische Nachrichten describes it this way (Die EU-Spitzen reisten mit Zuckerbrot und Peitsche zu Erdogan nach Ankara 07.04.2021):
Beide brauchen einander – auch in der Flüchtlingsfrage. Diese nannte die Kommissionspräsidentin als eines von vier Themenfeldern, um die es in einem ersten Gespräch mit Erdogan gegangen sei. Themenfelder, "in denen beide von einer verstärkten Zusammenarbeit profitieren können".

2016 hatte die EU mit der Türkei einen Deal geschlossen, wonach das Land keine Flüchtlinge in die EU durchwinkt und dafür sechs Milliarden Euro für deren Versorgung erhält. Geflossen sind davon bisher mehr als vier Milliarden Euro. Erdogan fordert mehr Geld, die EU will ihre Außengrenze dicht halten. Also wird es auf eine Verlängerung des Deals hinauslaufen.

[Both {Turkey and the EU} need each other, including on the refugee issue. The President of the Commission mentioned this as one of the four topics discussed in an initial discussion with Erdogan. topics "in which both can benefit from enhanced cooperation".

In 2016, the EU struck a deal with Turkey under which the country will not to wave refugees through into the EU and receives six billion euros for its trouble. More than four billion euros have been spent so far. Erdogan is demanding more money, the EU wants to keep its external border close. So it will result in an extension of the deal.] {my translation}
That mention comes at the very end of the news article. But it's not only an intense issue between Turkey and the EU. It's also dramatic evidence of a current weakness in the EU, which is to rely far too heavily on a kick-the-can-down-the-road approach to significant problems. The EU faced a big and very unusual surge of refugees in 2015-16, which was met with a great deal of disarray among EU member nations. And not only far-right parties responded in many countries with a xenophobic political reactions to which the center-right and left parties generally did a poor job of responding in a constructive way.

The agreement with Turkey was established in early 2016, and it gives Turkey the ability to pressure European governments by threatening to send more refugees north. As of last September, there were some 3.6 million refugees in Turkey. (UNHCR Turkey - Fact Sheet September 2020 22.09.2020) As Robin Alexander reported in his 2018 book, "Erdoğan nutzt seinen Machtzuwachs und sein Erpressungspotenzial gegenüber der EU dazu, die Demonrage der jahrzehntelang gewachsenen Demokratie in der Türkei zu beschleunigen." ("Erdoğan is using his increased power and his blackmail potential against the EU to accelerate the dismantling of Turkey's democracy, which has been growing for decades.") He threatened the EU just over a year ago with sending a large number of refugees north toward Europe. (Turkey says millions of migrants may head to EU BBC News 03/02/2020)

The EU has had five years now to work on reducing this threat, which is basically only seen as a threat because of xenophobic and Islamophobic sentiments in various EU countries that way too many EU leaders would rather duck that deal with them straightforwardly. An EU burden-sharing agreement to absorb a significant number of those refugees could have steadily reduced that particular blackmail potential. And would have been a decent thing to do. A concerted effort during that time to reduce European arms sales to warring parties in Libya and the Middle East would have also been very helpful.

All this compromises the EU's human rights position considerably. Turkey has used some of the Syrian refugees to carry out an ethnic cleansing operation in formerly Kurdish areas it gained military control over in northern Syria, moving out Kurds and repopulating those areas with non-Kurdish Syrian refugees. The 2016 deal makes the EU at least passively complicit in that kind of operation.

And whether the issues are human rights or democratic governance or Turkish foreign policy mischief, the current refugee situation gives Turkey a big addition of diplomatic clout. Erdoğan knows it, and EU leaders know it. In Germany and Austria, rightwing politicians like to bitch and moan about Turkish funding of mosques that my promote jihadism and worries that Turkey tries to inappropriately manipulate the considerable Turkish minorities in those countries in service of Turkish foreign policy. Whatever real concerns there may be on that score - and my impression is that those are relatively limited - those are legitimate concerns. But, for better or worse, Germany and Austria are significantly constrained in taking action on such perceived threats because of Turkey's refugee club.

So it's not surprising to see Wolfgang Münchau's Eurointelligence blog expressing low expectations and a bit of disgust at the EU's current situation with Turkey (Beware of photo-ops with Erdogan 04/07/2021):
They had to have the photo op with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and it turned out to be bad idea, as we predicted. ...

A video clip from the meeting went viral. It showed Charles Michel taking the seat next to Erdogan, forcing Ursula von der Leyen to sit on the sofa opposite the Turkish foreign minister. Symbols speak more than words, especially in countries like Turkey. The same is true for the official photo in which the two EU leaders smiled, while Erdogan looked like he just wanted to get it over and done with. If the EU does not know how speak in images, they are better off keeping meetings behind closed doors.

Erdogan may not be Sergey Lavrov, but his seating arrangements were enough to display the rift between European Council and the Commission, and male dominance over a female leader. The EU's concern over Turkey's exit from the Istanbul Convention on Discrimination and Violence against Women suddenly lost its bite.
He's referring there to this obnoxious symbolic move by Erdoğan, Ursula Von der Leyen snubbed in chair gaffe at EU-Erdoğan talks Guardian News 04/07/2021:



Erdoğan pulled a similar stunt when Angela Merkel came to Ankara in 2016 to negotiate the refugee deal.
In the press briefing afterwards, von der Leyen said human rights are non-negotiable and that Turkey should respect the recent rulings of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) for the release Turkish businessman Osman Kavala and Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtain. She said the Commission will come up with a proposal for how to support Syrian refugees in Turkey in a show of good will. So goodwill first, non-negotiables after?
Hiding under the covers from the refugee challenge has a significant price for the EU, diplomatic as well as financial.

Joe Biden's early positioning with Turkey

US President Joe Biden sent an important diplomatic signal at the time of the recent EU (video) summit by singling out Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Misotakis as the only one of the Greek heads of government to whom he made a personal call, a significant diplomatic signal early in his administration that he's leaning toward Greece in its current disputes with their fellow NATO member Turkey.

Ekathimerini reports (Biden offers full support to Mitsotakis 03/28/2021):
Washington’s intention to support Athens was reportedly made loud and clear in the telephone call between US President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis last Thursday on the occasion of the 200th anniversary of the start of the Greek War of Independence.

“If you need anything, call me. I’m here to help,” Biden reportedly told Mitsotakis – an offer which carries added significance given that no one can discount Ankara’s stance in the coming months. At the same time the foundations were laid for Mitsotakis to visit to the White House within the year.

If anything, the phone call reflected the open line of communication between the two capitals, and the US involvement in the region after its resounding absence during the era of Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump, during which time Ankara challenged Greece’s sovereign rights, not least with its Oruc Reis research vessel conducting surveys over several months last year.
Biden doesn't have hotel branding deals to worry about for his personal business, so he can take a more Presidential posture in dealings with other countries including Turkey than Trump did. (John Haltiwanger and Sonam Sheth, Trump’s disastrous retreat from Syria raises new questions about his financial interests in Turkey Business Insider 10/18/2019) You can check out photos of Trump Tower Istanbul here.

Biden also doesn't seem to share Trump's particular fondness for leaders like who strike authoritarian tough-guy postures.

Monday, March 16, 2020

Overlapping crises: COVID-19, eurozone, refugees

Wolfgang Münchau, who was one of the best commentators on the eurozone crisis in the Great Recession is hearing new alarm bells going off. (Eurozone stability is under threat again Financial Times 03/15/2020)

The last ten years showed that there were two big issues that could blow up the EU: the flaws in the structure of the euro currency and the refugee crisis on the southern border. Both in practice promoted nationalistic attitudes that encouraged anti-EU sentiment. Neither has been adequately addressed. Now the COVID-19 crisis is showing the cost of kicking the can down the road on both issues. The scandalously overcrowded refugee in Greece are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 outbreaks, which Doctors Without Borders have been sounding the alarm about. (Immediate evacuation of migrant camps in Greece needed to contain coronavirus, says MSF Euronews 03/14/2020)

And that makes both the current refugee emergency and the COVID-19 pandemic more difficult to address.

The "social distancing" that is requiring a massive reduction of immediate economic activity in EU countries, along with the lack of EU-wide fiscal policy to compensate for it, could very well bring a new round of the euro crisis. Which is what Münchau focuses on here:
Taken together, the national policies will constitute a stimulus of sort, but they will end up increasing the eurozone’s internal imbalances. The fiscal deficits of Italy, Spain and France will increase a lot. Those of Germany, the Netherlands and Finland may go up too, but by a lot less. The fiscal gap between the north and the south will widen. ... we are back to arguing about Italy’s solvency, which depends on low bond yields.
In other words, it can set off a new euro crisis. "Italy has not forgotten the reluctance of other EU member states to take in Syrian refugees who landed on Italian shores. Italy will emerge from its Covid-19 nightmare to a different world. It is not good for the EU to antagonise a founding member state."

Yanis Varoufakis talks about the economic repercussions of the COVID-19 crisis in Yanis Varoufakis on the economic and political impact of the coronavirus DiEM25 03/15/2020:

Friday, February 21, 2020

Syria and Turkey and the Idlib crisis and the US and Russian involvements

European policymakers and the public as well need to be preparing for the refugee fallout from Syria's current brutal military operations in Idlib province.

Aljazeera reports on the situation in 'Nowhere is safe': UN warns of urgent danger of Syria escalation 02/19/2020, noting that Syria's action in Idlib has produced "the biggest wave of displacement since the start of the war nearly nine years ago."

Syria recently killed some Turkish troops. And Turkey is threatening expanded military action against Syria, which backed by Russia:
"An operation in Idlib is imminent," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his party's legislators in Parliament on Wednesday. "We are counting down, we are making our final warnings".

Ankara, which supports several rebel groups in northwest Syria, has been outraged since recent Syrian government attacks in Idlib province killed 13 Turkish military personnel in two weeks. It is also eager to prevent another flood of refugees into its territory adding to the 3.6 million Syrians it already hosts.

Responding to Erdogan's comments, Russia - the main ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - said any operation against Syrian forces in Idlib would be the "worst scenario".
Mark Katz discusses the Turkey-Russia angle in How long can Russia and Turkey cooperate amid a myriad of conflictual hazards? Responsible Statecraft 02/17/2020. Here's one of the immediate risks:
And those differences are serious, especially in Syria where the Russian-backed Assad regime’s determination to retake Idlib from the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition there is now coming to the fore. What Ankara fears is that if the Assad regime retakes Idlib, a flood of refugees will stream north into Turkey where Ankara is already struggling to support previous waves of refugees from the Syrian civil war that has been going on since 2011. Further, if the Assad regime retakes Idlib, it may then seek to retake areas further north that Turkey now has influence over, such as Afrin. Conflict between Turkish and Assad regime forces involving Russian personnel has already occurred and could grow worse. [my emphasis]
Turkey and Russia are also on opposing sides in Libya. "A similar dynamic may be developing in the conflict between Libya’s U.N.-recognized government and General Khalifa Haftar in which Turkey is aiding the former and Russia (via private military contractors) is helping the latter."

Turkey is a NATO ally of the US and European NATO members. NATO is a mutual defense treaty obligating members to defend each other against outside aggression, although the commitment to supportive military action isn't automatic. Libya is in no shape to invade Turkey and Syria is highly unlikely to do so. But NATO ally Turkey is currently in a shooting conflict with Syria and is occupying part of Syria territory.

Bakr Sidqi reports for the Middle East Monitor (As Tensions Flare between Russia and Turkey in Syria, will Trump be Drawn in on side of Ankara? 02/21/2020) on the complicated diplomatic triangle of Ankara, Washington, and Moscow:
Yesterday, there was a telephone conversation between Erdogan and US President Donald Trump, the latter stated they had discussed matters regarding Idlib, adding that they are working together.

This American statement, at the highest level, indicates American support for Turkey regarding the conflict in and around Idlib, but it is nothing more than a statement. American Special Envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, had already announced this support in Ankara. However, the National Security Advisor, Robert O’Brien, said on the same day that the US would not send troops into the Idlib conflict zone. While O’Brien’s words are not surprising, as no one expected otherwise, it seemed to be a response to the statement made by Jeffrey and a warning to Ankara not to cling to illusions about the extent of Washington’s involvement in Syria in support of Turkey, after having withdrawn most of its forces from Upper Mesopotamia. ...

Regardless of the extent to which Washington can go in support of the Turkish war effort in the Idlib and Aleppo regions, it is clear that the Turkish president is playing, in this conflict, the game of blackmailing Russia with the Americans and the Americans with Russia. [my emphasis]

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Yanis Varoufakis and the DiEM25 movement at the end of 2018

This is a 20-minute segment of Yanis Varoufakis talking about European politics in the context of his DiEM25 group's participation in the March 2019 European Parliament elections, Progressive International: Yanis Varoufakis; Bernie Sanders Launch New Global Mvt Against Far Right Democracy Now! 12/07/2018. Transcript here.


DiEM25 has functioned since its creation in 2016 as an advocacy group for left ideas in the European Union, including a focuses on economic stimulative politics instead of the destructive Herbert Hoover/Heinrich Brüning austerity economics. (The Progressive International is a new, loose alliance for various left-leaning groups and movements just stared by DiEM25 and the Sanders Insitute.) Their website defines their vision this way:
Europe is currently suffering from five crises: debt, banks, poverty, low investment and migration. DiEM25 is the infrastructure which European democrats of all political persuasions will use in order to develop common answers to these crises. We also demand more fundamental change: EU institutions, which were initially designed to serve the industry, need to become fully transparent and accountable to European citizens. Our long-term vision is for Europeans to write a democratic constitution for the EU.
Varoufakis has been DiEM25's most prominent leader to date. And, of course, he led a dramatic fight against the ruinous EU response to the debt crisis in Greece as Greek Finance Minister in 2015.

Varoufakis detailed that effort in Adults in the Room (2017) - German title Die ganze Geschichte: Meine Auseinandersetzung mit Europas Establishment - which gives a very valuable look at the vulnerability of the EU to economic crises and at the deep flaws of the euro currency. Varoufakis' account of austerity economics and the euro's problems is broadly consistent with those of Joe Stiglitz (The Euro: And its Threat to the Future of Europe, 2017) and of Varoufakis' close associate and ally Jamie Galbraith (Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe, 2016). Paul Krugman is more closely tied to neo-Keynesian views, particularly in his emphasis on the risks of budget deficits, but his account of the euro and the Greek crisis was substantially the same as that of Varoufakis. As were those of Brad DeLong and Wolfgang Münchau.

Up until this year, DiEM25 has been more of a left advocacy group, trying to rally left-leaning activists, parties, and voters around a pro-European (i.e., pro-EU) view that also rejects austerity and embraces progressive economic policies. Its current political manifesto strikes a left-populist tone (emphasis in original):
At the heart of our disintegrating EU there lies a guilty deceit: A highly political, top-down, opaque decision-making process is presented as ‘apolitical’, ‘technical’, ‘procedural’ and ‘neutral’. Its purpose is to prevent Europeans from exercising democratic control over their money, finance, working conditions and environment. The price of this deceit is not merely the end of democracy but also poor economic policies:
  • The Eurozone economies are being marched off the cliff of competitive austerity, resulting in permanent recession in the weaker countries and low investment in the core countries
  • EU member-states outside the Eurozone are alienated, seeking inspiration and partners in suspect quarters where they are most likely to be greeted with opaque, coercive free trade deals that undermine their sovereignty.
  • Unprecedented inequality, declining hope and misanthropy flourish throughout Europe
But in 2019, they will be standing up candidates for the EU Parliament election. They formed a party, Demokratie in Europa, to campaign in Germany, with Varoufakis himself heading the list. Obviously a provocative choice!

(Also, the usual German abbreviation for that party name would be DiE, which has a particular meaning in English! Proabaly, they intend the short form to be DE, which is the typical German abbreviation for Deutsch [German]).

I would describes DiEM25's position as a left social-democratic one framed as a left-populist appeal. Pascal Beucker notes that a Varoufakis candidacy in Germany definitely brings star power to the ticket. (Varoufakis plant Kandidatur taz 20. 11. 2018) He has said he will use his candidacy to promote solidarity between northern and southern EU countries.

There doesn't seem to be much if any polling on Demokratie in Europa's potential performance next year. So there's not much "horse race" information available.

I've been saying since 2015 that the EU has two major threats that could break out again in a new immediate crisis that could wreck the EU: the faulty construction of the eurozone and immigration. Both came together in 2015, when Angela Merkel and the EU establishment promoted nationalist contempt against Greece in the debt crisis in the early part of that year, which severely complicated the response of the EU in the acute phase of the immigration crisis in 2015-16.

DiEM25 is not only in favor of reforming the eurozone structure to make the eurozone into what economists call an "optimal currency zone," they are also distinctly pro-immigration. On the last point, Varoufakis states that position polemically in the Democracy Now! interview above:
To answer an earlier question which I did not answer fully, our reaction to the arguments that we are being swarmed by foreigners and so on is: Let them in. Borders are a scar on the surface of the planet, on the face of the Earth. They make no sense. The only thing that they do is they increase the profits of the traffickers. And at the same time, we are failing to understand that Europe is aging. We need migrants. We need refugees.

So, in other words, you cannot compete with the fascists with fascism-lite, like Hillary Clinton the other day stupidly—and I use that word with a great deal of thought—suggested that the way to defeat populism in Europe is to erect borders around Europe and to stop migrants from coming in. Hillary Clinton said that, proving that she was unfit to be president of the United States yet again. You cannot compete with them playing their own misanthropic game. The only way you can compete with them is by appealing to the humanity of humans and also to their rationality. And using migrants as a football, in the end, backfires. So, we are going to fight them on the beaches - and when I say “them,” I mean the fascists, I mean those that Steve Bannon is organizing. They’re going to face up to the fact that we’re going to be there, and we’re going to be undermining their movement with arguments that appeal to rationality and to humanity. [my emphasis]
I don't assume that Varoufakis is advocating the immediate abolition of borders, but rather is making a provocative point which would benefit Demokratie in Europa's campaign if xenophobes pick up that quote to use against them. That would give them the chance to respond along the lines Varoufakis does there: "we are failing to understand that Europe is aging. We need migrants. We need refugees."

On both the euro and immigration, I would say that the EU leadership is generally aware that the kind of solutions toward which DiEM points are the practical and necessary ones. On the euro, Varoufakis in Adults in the Room recounts how eurozone finance ministers would agree with him in private on his proposals but reject them in public.

There may not be the same level of (private) agreement among European leaders on immigration. But the fact is, especially given the trend of climate change, the EU has a longterm immigration crisis. They are also experiencing shortages in candidates for various kinds of necessary jobs. To take just one example, in Austria, home care for the sick and especially the elderly is facing growing demand because the population is aging. And the demographics say that will only increase. But already in 2018, virtually every one of those jobs is filled by non-Austrian citizens. Many of them are from other EU countries, where borders already don't count when it comes to the movement of people.

But that also means that some eastern EU members are experiencing emigration of their own citizens, particularly younger ones, to wealthier EU countries offering more opportunity and higher pay. This is an important part of the background to rightwing-populist reactions against the EU in countries like Hungary, Rumania, and the Czech Republic. So, in other words, "Europe is aging. We need migrants. We need refugees."

Back in 2011, Charlie Pierce used to say of the Occupy Wall Street movement that sometimes it's enough to be shouting at the right buildings. DiEM25 is shouting at the right buildings in the EU.

Saturday, November 24, 2018

Hillary and European immigration

The Guardian headline is jarring: Hillary Clinton: Europe must curb immigration to stop rightwing populists (Patrick Wintour 11/22/2018). I happened to be in Vienna on Friday, and the large news screen in the subway stations were showing a German version of it with Hillary's photo. I doubt anyone took it as a pro-immigrant statement on her part.

Here are some German-language headlines on the story: Clinton: Europa muss Einwanderung in den Griff bekommen Kurier; Hillary Clinton wirbt für Begrenzung der Einwanderung in Europa Schleswig-Holsteinische Zeitung; Clinton fordert striktere europäische Flüchtlingspolitik Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; Hillary Clinton empfiehlt Europa Begrenzung der Einwanderung Der Standard.

Some further English headlines: Hillary Clinton Says Europe Must ‘Get a Handle’ on Migration to Thwart Populism New York Times; Hillary Clinton urges Europe to curb migration to stop populists Politico; Hillary Clinton tells Europe to curb immigration and stop populism CNBC

I'm going into some detail on this because it's important to the immigration issue and the fight against xenophobic anti-democracy parties and because of what it tells us about Hillary Clinton and her brand of Third Way centrist politics. Which, within the US Democratic Party, is not at all unique.

These headlines are obviously helpful to the xenophobes and damaging to pro-immigration advocates in Europe. But I also learned long ago to be careful about taking reporting on the Clintons at the face value of headlines. The historical journalistic malpractice by even the "quality" American media was well documented by Gene Lyons in Fools for Scandal (1996) and by him and Joe Conason in The Hunting of the President (2000). A trend that nevertheless continues. (Joe Conason, still debunking Clinton pseudoscandals 11/19/2017) But, first:

European Immigration and rightwing populism

Europe faces longterm immigration problems which can be legitimately described as a chronic crisis. The huge influx of immigrants in 2015 was an acute phase, the shock of which has been widely exploited by rightwing demagogues like Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to further their project of undermining liberal democratic institutions and the rule of law.

Recently, Orbán made a propaganda point by announcing Hungary will not sign a diplomatically significant but legally completely non-binding UN Global Compact for Migration scheduled to be signed in December at a summit meeting in Morocco. He was following the lead of like-minded authoritarian Donald Trump, who withdrew the US from the pact in December 2017. (Leonid Bershidsky, Immigration Politics Aren’t Really About Immigration Bloombereg Opinion 11/20/2018)

Austria's baby-faced Chancellor Sebastian Kurz jumped on the bandwagon in November, while Austria holds the current six-month rotating Presidency of the EU's European Council. And several countries have since followed up with their own rejection: Poland, Israel, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria. Australia has just joined the anti-Migration Pact group. (Joseph Berlinger, Australia joins US, Israel in refusing to sign UN migration pact CNN 11/31/2018) And notable last-minute controversies on signing the Migration Pact have arisen in Germany, Italy, Croatia, and Slovenia. (Fabian Urech et al, Diese Länder lehnen den Uno-Migrationspakt ab – oder zögern mit der Zustimmung Neue Zürcher Zeitung 22.11.2018)

But that's only a diplomatic manifestation of the real effects of the xenophobic wave headed by far right parties and groups in Europe. As we see in the United States, anti-immigration measures are often brutal for those affected and too often deliberately cruel. The Trump Administration's policy, supposedly abandoned for now, of kidnapping the children of asylum-seekers arriving from Mexico, is a prime examaple of performative cruelty for its own sake.

Another is the let-them-drown-in-the-sea policies that have been adopted by Italy's current government, formally a coalition with the left-populist Five Stars movement as senior partner and the far-right populist Lega as junior partner. When it comes to immigration policy, though, the Lega's Matteo Salvini is clearly calling the shots.

Once Libya became a failed state in the wake of the US-French-British military intervention of 2011, that country has become a major route for refugees trying to make it to Europe from the Middle East and Africa. The people-smugglers (Schlepper is the German equivalent of the Mexican coyote). The Schleppers often send the refugees into the Mediterranean Sea in flimsy and overcrowded boats.

The international Law of the Sea requires capable vessels who encounter ships in danger of sinking to act to rescue the people on the endangered vessel. Humanitarian missions have played a singificant role in rescuing such refugees coming from Libya. But anti-immigrant governments like Italy have been trying to interfere with such missions. Even Austria's Chancellor Babyface has joined that chorus. (Kurz setzt Schlepper und Hilfs-NGOs faktisch gleich Der Standard/APA 14.10.2018)

But Italy's Salvini in his role as Interior Minister has also taken the step of refusing to allow ships carrying rescued people to dock in Italy. This is an active discouragement to ship captains to follow the Law of the Sea and basic human decency in rescue situations. In practice, it really is a let-them-drown-in-the-sea policy.

And a report in the 17.11.2018 issue of Der Spiegel ("Tödliche Befehle"; English version: Raphael Thelen, Are Ships in the Med Ignoring Refugees in Distress? Spiegel International 11/21/2018) indicates that it is having that effect. It includes a report on the US Navy ship Trenton:
When they first saw the USNS Trenton, waves were already crashing into their inflatable boat out on the open sea. The 117 people onboard had crammed into the 12-meter (40-foot) vessel to escape the torture in the Libyan camps and to continue their journey to Europe. Now, they ripped off their T-shirts and began waving them and crying for help. Among them was Josef, a Nigerian man whose name we changed for this story. On this Tuesday, June 12, 2018, he was hoping for a new life in Italy, both for himself and his pregnant girlfriend.

But the USNS Trenton, a 103-meter, high-speed, twin-hull catamaran outfitted with a helicopter and surveillance equipment, did not turn toward the distressed migrant ship, but away. And soon, the U.S. Navy vessel disappeared over the horizon.
The boat began to sink, and people started to drown. "About half an hour later, a helicopter appeared and then three motorboats sent from the Trenton showed up. They pulled 41 people out of the water. All the others had drowned, including Josef's girlfriend and their unborn child. A total of 76 people lost their lives that day."

Thelen's article notes that it is "unclear" why the Trenton "did not provide assistance earlier." It may have been a legitimate judgment call by the Trenton officers. But the practical consequence was just as fatal. And, "Sicilian investigators are looking into the matter. A formal inquiry into whether the Navy failed to render assistance in an emergency had not yet been initiated." The US Navy, unsurprisingly, claimed they did nothing wrong.

And the effect of Salvini's anti-immigrant policy puts even more pressure on commercial craft who site boats in distress. Thelen quotes Jana Ciernioch of the NGO SOS Mediterranée saying that she "believes trade ships don't provide assistance because they are wary of spending days looking for a port of call now that Europe has closed its ports to survivors."

(For regularly updated information on refugees to Europe, see: UNHCR Operational Portal Refugee Situations.)

What Hillary Said

Hillary's immigration headlines followed on a series of interviews The Guardian did with three center-left political figures: Britain's Tony Blair, Italy's Matteo Renzi, and Hillary. Unlike Blair and Renzi, Hillary recently enjoyed a major political success: winning the popular vote in the 2016 US Presidential election by a margin of three million or so. Even though America's 18th-century Electoral College gave the Presidency to the disgraceful Donald Trump, her popular victory gives her opionions current political weight. And she could run for the Presidency againt in 2020.

Not surprisingly, what she said in the interview as quoted in the article cited above was more nuanced than the headlines:
“I admire the very generous and compassionate approaches that were taken particularly by leaders like Angela Merkel, but I think it is fair to say Europe has done its part, and must send a very clear message – ‘we are not going to be able to continue provide refuge and support’ – because if we don’t deal with the migration issue it will continue to roil the body politic.” ...

Clinton urged forces opposed to rightwing populism in Europe and the US not to neglect the concerns about race and identity issues that she says were behind her losing key votes in 2016. She accused Trump of exploiting the issue in the election contest – and in office.

“The use of immigrants as a political device and as a symbol of government gone wrong, of attacks on one’s heritage, one’s identity, one’s national unity has been very much exploited by the current administration here,” she said.

“There are solutions to migration that do not require clamping down on the press, on your political opponents and trying to suborn the judiciary, or seeking financial and political help from Russia to support your political parties and movements.”

Brexit, described by Clinton as the biggest act of national economic self-harm in modern history, “was largely about immigration”, she said.
Unfortunately, this is classic ”Third Way“ centrism. And some of the Social Democrats, including the SPÖ in Austria, are taking similar positions.

But this kind of posturing is the opposite of helpful for people in EU countries trying to get a realistic, pragmatic, and humanly decent immigration policy and to counter rightwing nationalism. EU countries need immigrants as much as the US.

It‘s doubly odd because she‘s also quoted in that piece being very blunt about how she thinks Trump voters just want to be told what to do. If she’s saying that, why can‘t she say that xenophobes need to take their heads out of their rear ends?

Her description here of authoritarian voters is fairly lead-footed. (I.e., supporters of rightwing populism have "a psychological as much as political yearning to be told what to do, and where to go, and how to live and have their press basically stifled and so be given one version of reality.") Which raises the further question: If she‘s saying stuff like this, why did she walk back her ”deplorables“ comment in 2016? She could have followed up the ”deplorables“ remarkt by responding to criticism with talking about some of the white supremacists and woman-haters backing Trump.

On the other hand, the excerpts from the interview reported in this article give a better picture of her critique of Trump's politics and its enablers, although it doesn't include further comments about immigration: Patrick Wintour in New York, The US media must 'get smarter' to tackle Trump, says Hillary Clinton Guardian 11/23/2018.

And another Guardian article gives some additional comments of hers on US immigration that provide at least more context (Patrick Wintour, Clinton, Blair, Renzi: why we lost, and how to fight back 11/22/2018):
Clinton articulated a position that she felt Democrats should adopt on immigration in the US, where there are an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants, as Trump exploits fear of migrants to inflame his political base.

Democrats, she said, must never stoop to treating migrants cruelly. “You deport the bad actors, you deport the criminals, you deport people who have some other kind of threat to our national security. People who have been here for a long time, you have a cut-off point and after that point, they have to learn English, they have to pay taxes, they have to follow the law, they have to wait in line, and you have a process.

“For people who then keep coming, you turn them back, unless they qualify for asylum, which has been in our law for hundreds of years.” [my emphasis]
After the Guardian excerpts were published, Hillary tried to walk them back a bit (Dareh Gregorian, Hillary Clinton calls for reform, 'not open borders,' in explaining European migration remarks NBC News 11/24/2018.

She struck a more immigrant-friendly tone in a Tweetstring:


And she links to the text of an October 9 speech of hers on the subject, Remarks at Bonavero Institute of Human Rights, in which she says:
Of course, security and the rule of law must be upheld. Of course, nations have a right and duty to control their borders, in concert with their neighbors. But we can’t let fear or bias force us to give up the values that have made our democracies both great and good.

Our goal should be to build societies that are secure and welcoming, where everyone counts and everyone contributes – people who are newcomers to our lands and people who have lived in the same place for generations.
Which sounds pleasantly harmless. But her comments to the Guardian were of a different nature. It's hard not to read her statements there as classic Clinton "triangulating" advice: take the immigration issue away from the rightwing populists by adopting their position on immigration.

Obama as President tried something like the same approach. The theory was, crack down on illegal immigration and show the Republicans that you're serious about controlling immigration. And then that will make the Republicans more willing to agree to a more reasonable comprehensive immigration reform. To say it didn't work out that way would be wildly understating the reality.

At this point, it's hard not to agree with Nesrine Malik's verdict on Hillary's immigration comments: "as a response to the right it is a proven failed strategy, a race to the bottom where populists will only benefit from the endorsement." (Hillary Clinton’s chilling pragmatism gives the far right a free pass Guardian 11/23/2018)

Economist Robert Reich, Labor Secretary in the Clinton Administration, is also not impressed with Hillary's position on European immigration:

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Austrian government postures against immigrants and refugees. Again.

The Austrian government of Chancellor Sebastian "Babyface" Kurz (ÖVP, "türkis"/turquoise) and Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ, blau/blue) have specialized in posturing against immigrants with gratuitous symbolic stances and mean-spirited measures to make life more difficult for immigrants. What they have not done is seek real, substantive, and practical solutions to the larger immigration problem facing Austria and the rest of the EU, which also means no serious measures to prepare for a situation like that faced in 2015 with a large surge in refugee inflows.

KurzStrache took another anti-immigrant mo ve on Tuesday, which is symbolically and therefore diplomatically significant, but has no direct practical effect. They announced Austria's rejection of UN's New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants, a broad statement on the rights of migrants with no binding effect. (Gianluca Wallische, Österreichs Ausstieg aus dem Uno-Migrationspakt: Entscheidung mit Anlauf Standard 31.10.2018; Austria says will not sign global migration pact Reuters 10/31/2018)

One can reasonably question whether such non-binding agreements amount to anything more than pious aspirational documents. But substantive agreements have to start somewhere. Austria joins the dubious company of Trump's America and Viktor Orbán's Hungary in rejecting the agreement. (Clark Mindock, US withdraws from United Nations agreement to establish international rights for migrants Independent 12/03/2017)

Reuters also notes that the authoritarian government of "Poland, which has also clashed with Brussels by resisting national quotas for asylum seekers, is considering the same step."

What's also notable about KurzStrache's action is that through the end of 2018, Austria's holds the rotating presidency of the European Council. So this is a deliberate gesture of contempt toward the EU on their part. And a reminder that they are not at all serious about a European solution of the refugee issue.

Here are the terrifying provisions of the agreement that so frighten the bold leaders of the Nationalist International (from UNHCR New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants n.d., accessed 10/31/2018):
In adopting the New York Declaration, Member States:
  • expressed profound solidarity with those who are forced to flee;
  • reaffirmed their obligations to fully respect the human rights of refugees and migrants;
  • agreed that protecting refugees and supporting the countries that shelter them are shared international responsibilities and must be borne more equitably and predictably;
  • pledged robust support to those countries affected by large movements of refugees and migrants;
  • agreed upon the core elements of a Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework; and
  • agreed to work towards the adoption of a global compact on refugees and a global compact for safe, orderly and regular migration.

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Austria's Sebastian Kurz, conservative star?

Newsweek International has a current cover story about Austria's baby-faced Chancellor Sebastian Kurz that's such a puff piece that it could have come from one of Kurz' PR flacks: Elizabeth Schumacher, Sebastian Kurz is Remaking Europe's Future From its Darkest Past Newsweek International 10/17/2018.

No, it's not "fake news" or "Lügenpresse". It's just good, old-fashioned sloppy and/or lazy reporting. The fact that the headline doesn't make sense is the least of its problems.

Kurz is the Chancellor of a parliamentary coalition government that's been in office for a year. His party is the Christian Democratic classically conservative party ÖVP. The junior partner is the far-right populist party FPÖ, headed by Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache. If there has been any major differences between the two governing parties the last year, it hasn't been readily apparent.

This article gets one thing right: KurzStrache have emphasized their hostility to immigrants What you can't tell from the article is that their anti-immigration policy is mainly fear-mongering, fantasy solutions, publicity stunts, and gratutious measures to punish refugees for existing.

One example: KurzStrache and their fans like to complain that immigrants aren't learning German quickly enough. So they cut funding for German classes for immigrants. That's how they roll. And if they have made new provisions for handling a high influx of regugees like in 2015, they are keeping that well concealed, too.

The article doesn't even mention two of the most dramatic incidents of the last year. There is a current parlimentary investigation into what known as the BVT affair. The BVT is Austria's internal security agency charged with thwarting terrorist plots and the like. KurzStrache's far-right Interior Minister's department staged a highly irregular raid in which they used a Vienna city police unit controlled by Strache's FPÖ (!!!) and took a large number of documents relating to security investigations. The Washington Post has reported that several other European intelligence agencies have significantly reduced their cooperation with the BVT because they don't trust them to keep sources and methods secret. The likely though unadmitted reason for the raid was to find out which people close to the FPÖ were being investigated and who was provided the BVT the information.

The other was the amazing show KurzStrache staged for Vladimir Putin. Strache's FPÖ entered into a formal, publicly acknowledged cooperation agreement with Putin's United Russia party in 2016. The Foreign Minister invited Putin to her wedding, along with Kurz and Strache, of course. Austria press was not allowed there, but Putin's state channel RT was. RT filmed a dance of the Foreign Minister with Putin, after which she literally bowed down on her knee before him. Kurz is well-known for his obsession with Message Control. No way that Kurz and Strache didn't stage this exactly the way they and their friend Vlad wanted it. Putin dances, speaks German at Austrian FM’s wedding RT 08/18/2018:


This is a surprise to see: "For the first time in 100 years, since the end of the Habsburg Empire — when Austria ruled much of Europe for close to 500 years - the country finds itself in a position of power." Austria's power consists of direct diplomatic influence in the Balkans and traditional business and financial ties in both western and eastern Europe. The reporter seems to be basing that on Kurz' current role of President of the EU's European Council. But that's a rotating six-month role that is more a diplomatic ritual than any real authority. That role can be used to help set the EU's political agenda. But KurzStrache has mainly used it to promote their own anti-immigration PR show. They did produce some empty discussions about fantasy pseudo-solutions like asylum centers in North Africa (ain't gonna happen).

To the extent the KurzStrache economic policies are being felt, they are along Herbert Hooverish lines: lower wages, more job insecurity, weaker unions, cuts in public services to ordinary people, etc.

See also:

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Österreichs Kurz will keine NGO See-Rettungen

Österreichs Kanzler Sebatian "Milchgesicht" Kurz machte ein Gespräch mit Stephan Löwenstein und Thomas Gutschker von der FAZ (Sonntag): „Diese Politik beendet das Ertrinken“ 14.10.2018. (Die ganze Interview ist nur mit Abo erreichbar.)

Sie haben ihn bei einem zarten Punkt berüht: "Sie wollen in Ihrer Zeit als EU-Ratspräsident das Problem der illegalen Migration nach Europa angehen. Politisch hat sich seit Juli kaum etwas getan." Das stimmt. Und seine EU-Ratspräsidentschaft ist schon mehr als die Hälfte vorbei.

Der Standard berichtet über die FAZ-Sonntag Interview in Kurz setzt Schlepper und Hilfs-NGOs faktisch gleich 13.10.2018.
Der "Frankfurter Allgemeinen Sonntagszeitung" sagte Kurz: "Es kann doch nicht sein, dass ein paar Nichtregierungsorganisationen das klare Ziel der 28 Staats- und Regierungschefs in Europa konterkarieren. Und das nicht nur mit dem Ziel, Leben zu retten, sondern gemeinsam mit den Schleppern Menschen nach Mitteleuropa zu bringen."
Der ÖVP-Chef nannte das Schiff "Aquarius 2", das von Ärzte ohne Grenzen und SOS Mediterranee betrieben wird. Schiffe wie die "Aquarius" versuchten, der libyschen Küstenwache beim Bergen von Migranten zuvorzukommen. Das schaffe absurde Situationen. "Wenn nicht europäische Schiffe retten, sondern libysche oder ägyptische, stellen sich komplexe Rechtsfragen gar nicht erst", sagte Kurz.
Kanzler Milchgesicht liebt leere Rhetorik. Und Österreich hat natürlich keine Küste. Aber trotzdem sind solche Aussagen nicht ganz harmlos. Kurz gibt dabei verbale Unterstützung zu rechts-populistischer, anti-Immigration Parteien und Politiker wie Ungarns Viktor Orbán (Fidesz), Italiens Innenminister Matteo Salvini (Lega) (der auch de facto Regierungschef ist), und seinem eigenen Vizekanzler Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ).

Friday, October 12, 2018

Norbert Röttgen on Angela Merkel's way of dealing with crises

Norbert Röttgen is a member of the German Budestag for the CDU (Christian Democratic Union), Angela Merkel's party. He was Environment Minister in Merkel's Cabinent 2009-2013 and is currently the chair of the Bundestag Foreign Policy Committee.

He gave an interview to Der Spiegel that has been rightly interpreted as a wide-reaching criticism of Angela Merkel's crisis management. Whether or not he has a better course for the country and his party to follow, Röttgen has some perceptive observations that focus on the key problem of how Merkel approaches crises. ("Den Bach runter", Der Spiegel 41:2018 {06.10.2018}; Röttgen greift Merkel an Süddeutsche Zeitung 05.10.2018)

Röttgen says that Merkel's politics are unraveling. The immediate background of his comments are the state elections in Bavaria this coming Sunday. The Bavarian CSU (Christian Social Union) has allied with the CDU since the immediate postwar era, so much so that one could easily talk about the "CDU/CSU" as a single party on the national level. But it is a separate party. Their political strategy has always been to capture the conservative vote, even when it means taking nasty positions that weren't obviously consistent with either the "C" or the "S" in their party's name.

But now the CSU is facing a credible challenge on the right from the far-right, the TrumpPutinist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which won enough votes nationally in 2017 to enter the Bundestag. They are currently the third largest party, and the biggest opposition party to Merkel's GroKo (Grand Coalition) of the CDU/CSU and the SPD. And given the xenophobic fears that the CSU and some its leaders have happily stoked since 2015, it's very possible that the AfD will win a significant number of voters from the CSU. ( Matthew Karnitschnig, The man who lost Bavaria Politico EU 10/12/2018) On the left-center, the Greens in Bavaria seem to be benefitting from the political shifts more than the Social Democrats (SPD), the latter currently at serious risk of becoming a minor party.

Röttgen makes three important points that should be at the center of political conversations about the refugee/immigration issue in Europe.

The immigration crisis that became acute in 2015-16 was obviously already there but Merkel's government didn't prioritize it.
Die Migrationskrise hat uns vollig unvorbereitet getroffen. Dabei hat Deutschland wie fast alle europäischen Staaten einen Hilferuf des Weltenährungsprogramnms der Vereinten Nationen ignoriert. Öffensichtlich stimmt etwas nicht in unserer Organisation von Politik, wenn es darum geht, Krisen zu erkennen. Selbst wenn sie eigentlich nicht mehr zu übersehen sind, reagieren wir nicht. Daraus muss man doch mal Schlüsse ziehen.

{The migration crisis caught us fully unprepared. Including the fact that Germany, like almost all other European states, had ignored a call for assistance from the UN World Food Program. Clearly something is wrong in the way we organize policies when it comes to recognizing crises. Even when they are really can't be overlooked any more, we don't react. We have to draw conclusions from that.}

Röttgen there does use the word preferred by anti-immigrant agitators, "migrant" rather than "refugee" or "immigrant."

The euro crisis that reached its most acute phase in 2015 with the negotiations over Greek debt also showed the serious failure of the government's prior kick-the-can-down-the-road approach.
Wir verlieren [Wähler] derzeit dramatisch, weil zu der Finanz- und zur Eurokrise noch eine weitere Krise hinzugekommen ist, welche die Menschen viel stärker berührt, nämlich die Migrationskrise. Die ist nicht mehr abstrakt, sondern mit Gesichtern verbunden. Es löst in vielen emotional und psychisch etwas aus, wenn in sehr kurzer Zeit sehr viele fremde Menschen kommen. Das hat die vorher schon vorhandenen Krisensymptome verschärft.

{We are losing [voters] dramatically right now, because in addition to the financial and euro crisis an additional crisis also added that touched people even more strongly, namely the migration crisis. It is no longer abstract, but rather is tied to faces. In many people, it releases something emotional and psychologica, if a lot of foreign people come. That intensified the crisis symtoms that were already there.}

The part about mass immigration triggering fear and anxiety for people is true. But a lot of bad faith can also hide behind phrases like that, too. So it's always important to keep in mind on this issue that polls in Germany and Austria show consistently that fear of immigration is inversely related to the presence of immigrants where the respodents live. The more people have contact with actual immigrants, the less xenophobic they are on average.But he's right to connect reactions to the finance crisis and the Greek crisis of 2015 in particular to the European responses to the 2015-16 refugee wave. Because it's hard to see how the nationalist venom that Merkel's government encouraged against Greece in early 2015 didn't contribute in some major way to the nationalist responses and the resentment of being dictated to by Germany in the 2015-16 refugee crisis.

None of that excuses the irresponsbile conduct of most EU countries in refusing to accept refugees in that crisis, of course. Nor have any of them stepped up to provide leadership on realistic solutions to the continuing refugee dilemma. They prefer to float imaginary solutions (long-term development aid to African and Middle Eastern countries, asylum application centers in North Africa, chest-pounding to "close the borders!!!") out of some combination of reckless irresponsbility and hope they postpone new crises until they become some other politicians' problem.

Röttgen recognizes that processes for assimilation of new immigrants, called "integration"in Germany and Austria, are currently inadequate and need to be systematically improved.

Um es klar zu sagen: Der Fehler war nicht, diejenigen nach Deutschland zu lassen, die schon in Europa waren. Das habe ich immer als praktisch, humanitär und alternativlos angesehen, wenn Sie mir dieses Wort gestatten. Aber es sind jetzt rund eine Million Menschen aus zum Teil sehr entfernten Kulturen hier. Anzunehmen, dass wir das mit unserem traditionellen Integrationsinstrumentarium, das einmal für türkische  astarbeiter entwickelt wurde, bewältigen konnten, ist unrealistisch. Wir brauchten ein ganz neues Integrationskonzept. Aber darüber debattieren wir nicht.

{To say it clearly: The mistake was not in allowing those who were already in Europe to come to Germany. I've always viewed that as practical, humanitarian, and without an alternative, if you will allow me this phrase. But right now there are about a million people here that in part are from very different cultures. To assume that with our traditional methods of integration, that were developed at an earlier time for Turkish guest workers, that we can handle that is unrealistic. We need a completely new integration concept. But we aren't even debating it.}

Realism alone can't overcome xenophobic fear-mongering. But it's a necessary part of it. And it's even more necessary to develop practical solutions and practical plans for the ongoing chronic immigration problem.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Prominent German historian Heinrich August Winkler takes a surprisingly shallow position on immigration in "Der Spiegel"

Heinrich August Winkler is one of Germany's best-known and highly respected historians. The author description Der Spiegel attaches to his article, "Der Westen erodiert" (4:2018 06/10/2018) calls him the most influential German historian.

That makes the section of his article on immigration all the more suprising. A new book by Winkler was just published, Zerbricht der Westen?. The article doesn't indicate whether it's excerpted from the book, and the book may present a more nuanced view of the issue.

But what made it into the Spiegel article can be generously described as frivolous. It could also be read as a concern-troll advocacy of the anti-immigration position nominally pretending to express sympathetic concern.

Labels for current issues change, sometimes quickly. The large influx of refugees in 2015 was certainly a crisis, and everyone recognized it as such. The solution that the EU found for it was the deal that Angela Merkel negotiated with Turkey's authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in early 2016. The deal was essentially that Turkey would hold refugees that reach Turkey in exchange for payments from the EU. The EU outsourced the problem to Turkey, in other words. Turkey now is holding something like three million refugees. My understanding is that a large majority of them live outside of refugee centers. The European press as well as politicians don't seem to feel a lot of impetus to report in great detail on their condition.

There has been a very visible increase in the number of immigrants from the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Northern Africa at least since 2011. That date corresponds with the US-French-British military intervention that ended with the outster of Muammar Gaddafi's government and his lynch-murder of Gaddafit himself. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (in)famously celebrated Gaddafi's murder (after first being anally raped with a bayonet) as a delightful thing (Clinton on Qaddafi: We came, we saw, he died CBS 10/20/2011):


This delightful moment for the Secretary of State meant that Libya would then descend into failed-state conditions. (Ted Galen Carpenter, Libya Is a Failed State (and It's America's Fault) The National Interest 11/24/2017; Giorgio Cafiero and Daniel Wagner, Four Years After Gaddafi, Libya Is a Failed State FPIP 04/06/2015)

Qaddafi's regime was a brutal one. But the removal of his government had various baleful effects, including facilitating arms trafficking and attracting Islamist fighters from other countries. And it meant that Libya was no longer employing the large numbers of immigrant workers from nearby countries that they had been under Qaddafi. And we would probably shudder to think of the ways in which Qaddifi's government blocked irregular immigrantion out of the country and restrained the human smugglers ("coyotes" in American English, Schleppers in German) who were willing to provide passage to Europe. But after Qaddafi's overthrow in 2011, those factors no longer functioned with the same effectiveness.

After 2015-16, thanks primarily to the Turkey deal, refugee flows declined radically in 2017 and 2018. If the large influx of 2015-16 put real strains on the emergency services of EU countries, it would be pure demogoguery to make the same claim for 2017 and 2018. Since there's no shortage of xenophobic demagoguery, advocates for immigration sanity now tend to refer to 2015-16 as a "crisis" but stress that what the EU is facing directly right now can't be described as a crisis. And I try to be mindful of that important distinction.

But looking at the future, I tend to think it would be more accurate to describe the ongoing refugee flows as a long-term crisis that has acute and less acute phases. If Turkey changes its mind about continuing with the 2016 agreement, a new acute phase would follow.

Winkler's argument

Winkler begins the immigration section of his Spiegel article this way:
Deutschland ist am krisenhaften Zustand der Europäischen Union nicht unschuldig. Der deutsche (oder, was die Sache nicht besser macht, deutsch-öterreichische) Alleingang in der Flüchtlings- oder besser Migrationskrise im September 2015 konnte nicht ohne Auswirkungen auf die europäischen Nachbarn bleiben.
[Germany is not innocent in the crisis-like condition of the European Union. The German (or German-Austrian, which didn't make things better) go-it-alone path in the refugee, or better put, migration crisis in September 2015 could not help but have effects on the European neighbors.}
I'm not going to try to deconstruct every sentence of Winkler's argument. But these first two sentences unfortunately telegraph the rest of it pretty well. "Migration" versus "refugees" has become a political slogan. The anti-immigration politicians and publicists prefer to call the people desperate enough to take the high-risk, deadly smuggler routes to get to Europe "migrants", which makes them sound like seasonal workers following the harvests year after year. Refugee is both a discription and a legal category grounded in international law: people who flee their countries due to political persecution or massive violence, like that in civil wars. The latter kind of refugee is entitled to asylum in safe countries, which grants them legal residence, the legal right to work and other advantages. The xenophobes prefer to brand refugees as "economic migrants" who are just looking for a better job or to take advantage of European taxpayers living it up in the "hammock" of the host countries' social systems.

The "German-Austrian go-it-alone path" is a head-scratcher, at best a very clumsy description of the immigrantion crisis events of 2015-16.

He goes on to say that the big problem for the EU in 2015-16 was that Germany tried to tell all the other contries what to do in the crisis. And he says that the other EU countries should have made it very clear that they weren't going to take direction from Germany. He also criticizes the position of Germany, identified with Merkel's stand on the refugee crisis, of presenting itself as "the leading moral nation of Europe." And thus he blames Germany (and Merkel) for mismanaging the refugee crisis and therefore causing the increased political success of the extreme right since then.

How this differs from the simplistic sloganeering of the anti-immigrant right is unclear to me.

If we rewind to 2015, the crisis began with the influx of large numbers of refugees into Hungary through what became known as the "Balkan route." Germany pushed for a "European solution" in which each EU country would agree to take contingents of specified numbers of refugees. This was not only reasonable and practical proposal then. It's still a part of what would be a longterm solution to the chronic refugee crisis.

Hungary's Viktor Orbán, egged on by Vladimir Putin's government in Moscow in pursuit of its longer-term strategy to disrupt the EU, saw an opportunity to exploit anti-immigrant sentiment politically. So once Germany had announced its willingness to accept refugees as part of an EU solution, Orbán's government brought thousands of refugees to the Austrian border, telling them they were being welcomed in Germany. Austria then had an immediate decision: repel the refugees by force or let them through.

The upshot was that Germany agreed to accept large numbers of refugees to solve the immediate crisis and their EU partners for the most part refused to participate. The two most notable exceptions were Sweden and Austria. Evenually, Sweden accepted the largest number of refugees in that wave relative to the country's population. Austria was second, Germany third. But Germany accepted by far the largest number of refugees.

Sweden at some point stopped accepting further refugees. There is an unavoidable chain-reaction effect in such a situation. Once a country shuts its borders to further refugees, the next country in the chain has to decide whether they will accept more or also further limit immigration. The solution, an inherently unstable one, because became the 2016 deal with Turkey.

From the reporting on the 2015-16 crisis, there seems to be real reason to believe that Merkel was motivated by humanitarian concerns in her initial decision to accept large numbers of refugees. But she was also motivated by very practical concerns in dealing with a real problem. Germany, Sweden, and Austria provided a three-country interim solution to a European problem. The picture of Merkel as some kind of self-righteous moralist is a propaganda concoction of the far right. (Well, mostly.) Her deal with Turkey isn't one that Mother Teresa would have likely approved.

Winkler's Spiegel article seems to assume that the right solution for EU countries to the very real and ongoing immigration problem is to imitate the appproach of demogogic politicians like Austria's Sebastian Kurz or Hungary's Viktor Orbán by symbolically pounding their chests, shouting "Close the borders!", and trying to dump the problem onto some other country.

Immigration is a huge and comlex problem for the EU that can be temporarily mitigated by close-the-border chain reactions. But the refugee issue doesn't exist in a vaccum. The EU countries have to decide whether they want an optimal solution to the problem or prefer to lurch from crisis to crisis with all the risks and limitations that go with the current approach, i.e., dump the problem onto Turkey. (And, to a significant but lesser extent, onto the EU outer-border Italy and Greece.)

I doubt that advocates of practical solutions can ever communicate their message in as simplistic slogans as those the fear-mongers use: We're being overrun by foreigners! Political Islam! They're all rapists and murderers! Lazy bums trying to sponge off our tax euros!

But the radical right's simplistic solutions depend on creating phony problems. ("Little girls with hijabs, aaa-iii-eeee!!")

The people trying to find practical longterm adjustments have reality on their side. That always counts for something.

[04/16/2018: Corrected for clarity of wording and typographical errors.]