Demographic change is not only one of the greatest but also one of the most ideologically contested challenges of our time. This was also shown by the exchange [I had] with the British demographer Dr. Paul Morland, known for his thoroughly provocative theses. As a migration researcher, I am of course particularly interested in the fact that the "theory" of the Great Replacement, invented on the drawing board of the extreme right (in quotation marks, because it is anything but a scientifically sound theory), was able to enter the political and social mainstream within a very short time. [my emphasis]
The Great Replacement Theory is one of the more prominent of the poisonous conspiracist narratives in the far-right gutter – which these days reaches into the White House:
[It is] in the United States and certain other Western countries whose populations are mostly white, a far-right conspiracy theory alleging, in one of its versions, that left-leaning domestic or international elites, on their own initiative or under the direction of Jewish co-conspirators, are attempting to replace white citizens with nonwhite (i.e., Black, Hispanic, Asian, or Arab) immigrants. The immigrants’ increased presence in white countries, as the theory goes, in combination with their higher birth rates as compared with those of whites, will enable new nonwhite majorities in those countries to take control of national political and economic institutions, to dilute or destroy their host countries’ distinctive cultures and societies, and eventually to eliminate the host countries’ white populations. Some adherents of replacement theory have characterized these predicted changes as “white genocide.” [my emphasis] (2)
When former President Donald Trump told millions of Americans during Tuesday's presidential debate that "our elections are bad, and a lot of these illegal immigrants coming in, they're trying to get them to vote," he was not just repeating a baseless claim intended to undermine the results of the upcoming 2024 election.
He was also echoing the latest iteration of a once-fringe racist conspiracy theory that has now become mainstream in the Republican Party. The conspiracy — known as the "great replacement" — claims there is a plan to bring nonwhite immigrants into the United States and other Western countries to replace white voters to achieve a political agenda. [my emphasis] (3)
Behind this [Great Replacement Theory] is a recipe that is as simple as it is dangerous: "They" are becoming more and more, while "we" are becoming fewer and fewer. At the same time, it will not be possible to maintain our labor markets, our social and pension systems without migration, as all demographic forecasts show us. A resource-oriented migration debate and a non-völkisch, dynamic understanding of belonging ([in which] "those" who come, become part of the "we") is therefore not only a humanitarian imperative of humanity, but [is] also economically without alternative in the long term.
After all, relying solely on measures to boost the birth rate of the native population to such an extent that they could stop or reverse the demographic transition is [a concept] oblivious to the future - even a migration-averse country like Hungary has recognized this and has begun to recruit seasonal workers (many of whom will probably stay permanently) on a large scale. Radical isolationism can only lead to insignificance of one’s own country. [my emphasis]
Notes:
(1)
(2) Duignan, Brian (2025): "replacement theory". Encyclopedia Britannica 08/232025. <https://www.britannica.com/topic/replacement-theory> (Accessed: 2026-08-02).
(4) Spain approves plan to grant legal status to thousands of migrants lacking right to stay. Euronews YouTube channel 01/27/2026. <https://youtu.be/LNEisoZLIH8?si=F89eFEIx5XnbEzsl> (Accessed: 2026-10-02).
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