Turkey, Syria, Russia and refugees being released to head to Europe

Developments in the armed conflict between NATO ally Turkey and Russian ally Syria. Turkey is fighting on Syrian territory to create a zone in which to settle Syrian refugees and replace, i.e., ethnically cleanse an area long populated by Kurds.

Linah Alsaafin and Virginia Pietromarchi report in Turkey-Syria tensions escalate after troops killed: Live updates Aljazeera 02/28/2020:

Dozens of Turkish troops have been killed in Syrian government air raids, marking a dramatic escalation in the conflict between Ankara and Moscow-backed forces in northwestern Syria.

The 33 deaths followed an attack in Idlib late on Thursday and come as Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air power, are attempting to seize the last remaining territory held by Turkey-backed Syrian opposition forces.

Der Standard characterizes the situation a little more bluntly (André Ballin und Jürgen Gottschlich, Die Türkei steht in Syrien immer knapper vor dem offenen Krieg 28.02.2020):

Der seit langem befürchtete Ernstfall ist eingetreten. Die militärischen Auseinandersetzungen in der syrischen Rebellenprovinz Idlib sind in einen regelrechten Krieg zwischen der Türkei und den Truppen des Assad-Regimes ausgeartet. In der Nacht von Donnerstag auf Freitag sind bei einem Luftangriff syrischer Kampfflugzeuge auf Stellungen türkischer Soldaten mindestens 33 Soldaten getötet und 40 weitere schwer verletzt worden.

Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will mit dem Einsatz seiner Armee erreichen, dass Assad zumindest einen Teil von Idlib nicht mehr angreift, damit dort für fast drei Millionen Menschen, von denen nach UN-Angaben bereits eine Million in Zelten entlang der türkischen Grenze kampieren, eine Schutzzone entsteht. Die Türkei fürchtet, dass sonst erneut hunderttausende syrische Flüchtlinge über die Grenze kommen könnten, die das Land nicht mehr aufnehmen könne. ...

So nah an einem Krieg waren Russland und die Türkei jedenfalls seit 2015 nicht mehr. [meine Hervorhebungen]

{The long-feared emergency has arrived. The military clashes in the Syrian rebel-held province of Idlib have degenerated into a veritable war between Turkey and the Assad regime's forces. During the night from Thursday to Friday, an airstrike by Syrian warplanes on positions of Turkish soldiers killed at least 33 soldiers and seriously injured 40 others.}

With the deployment of his army, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants Assad to stop attacking at least part of Idlib, so a protection zone can be created for nearly three million people, of whom, according to the UN, one million have already camped in tents along the Turkish border. Turkey fears that otherwise hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees could cross the border, which the country can no longer accept.

Russia and Turkey have not been so close to war since at least 2015. [my emphasis]}

The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet on the Turkey-Syria conflict this evening at 21:00 GMT.

Semih Idiz reports on how Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan plans in the situation has gone serious awry (Idlib and the collapse of Erdogan’s foreign policy Al-Monitor 02/27/2020):

Turkey is an isolated country today that has confrontational ties with the United States and Russia, as well as the Arab world and Europe. It is trying to ensure its vital security interests against this difficult backdrop.

But the few friends Ankara has left, such as Qatar, Pakistan or Azerbaijan, provide Turkey with no strategic value that could strengthen its hand against its adversaries.

The only option Erdogan has is to try and play the United States and Russia against each other, as he has been doing for some time now, but this approach seems to also have run its course.

Erdogan’s ambitious intervention in Libya, also on the other side of Russia, is also not going well. At the same time, it has complicated relations with its NATO allies by Russian arms purchases:

Erdogan’s decision to purchase Russian made S-400 air defense systems — over the objections of Turkey’s NATO allies — was also considered to be more of an act of defiance of the West than a coherent move based on a sound military rationale.

Erdogan’s biggest miscalculation is proving to be the reliance he placed on Russia.

And, contrary to his 2016 agreement with Angela Merkel, he's now sending an increased flow of refugees into Europe (Turkey says it will let refugees into Europe after troops killed in Syria Reuters 02/28/2020). And the EU is not prepared for a new refugee surge like that of 2015-16. "Greece and Bulgaria reinforced their borders in response to Turkey’s threat to reopen the frontier, shut under an agreement that halted the migration crisis of 2015-2016, when more than a million people crossed into Europe by foot."

Syria and Turkey and the Idlib crisis and the US and Russian involvements

European policymakers and the public as well need to be preparing for the refugee fallout from Syria's current brutal military operations in Idlib province.

Aljazeera reports on the situation in 'Nowhere is safe': UN warns of urgent danger of Syria escalation 02/19/2020, noting that Syria's action in Idlib has produced "the biggest wave of displacement since the start of the war nearly nine years ago."

Syria recently killed some Turkish troops. And Turkey is threatening expanded military action against Syria, which backed by Russia:

"An operation in Idlib is imminent," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his party's legislators in Parliament on Wednesday. "We are counting down, we are making our final warnings".

Ankara, which supports several rebel groups in northwest Syria, has been outraged since recent Syrian government attacks in Idlib province killed 13 Turkish military personnel in two weeks. It is also eager to prevent another flood of refugees into its territory adding to the 3.6 million Syrians it already hosts.

Responding to Erdogan's comments, Russia - the main ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - said any operation against Syrian forces in Idlib would be the "worst scenario".

Mark Katz discusses the Turkey-Russia angle in How long can Russia and Turkey cooperate amid a myriad of conflictual hazards? Responsible Statecraft 02/17/2020. Here's one of the immediate risks:

And those differences are serious, especially in Syria where the Russian-backed Assad regime’s determination to retake Idlib from the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition there is now coming to the fore. What Ankara fears is that if the Assad regime retakes Idlib, a flood of refugees will stream north into Turkey where Ankara is already struggling to support previous waves of refugees from the Syrian civil war that has been going on since 2011. Further, if the Assad regime retakes Idlib, it may then seek to retake areas further north that Turkey now has influence over, such as Afrin. Conflict between Turkish and Assad regime forces involving Russian personnel has already occurred and could grow worse. [my emphasis]

Turkey and Russia are also on opposing sides in Libya. "A similar dynamic may be developing in the conflict between Libya’s U.N.-recognized government and General Khalifa Haftar in which Turkey is aiding the former and Russia (via private military contractors) is helping the latter."

Turkey is a NATO ally of the US and European NATO members. NATO is a mutual defense treaty obligating members to defend each other against outside aggression, although the commitment to supportive military action isn't automatic. Libya is in no shape to invade Turkey and Syria is highly unlikely to do so. But NATO ally Turkey is currently in a shooting conflict with Syria and is occupying part of Syria territory.

Bakr Sidqi reports for the Middle East Monitor (As Tensions Flare between Russia and Turkey in Syria, will Trump be Drawn in on side of Ankara? 02/21/2020) on the complicated diplomatic triangle of Ankara, Washington, and Moscow:

Yesterday, there was a telephone conversation between Erdogan and US President Donald Trump, the latter stated they had discussed matters regarding Idlib, adding that they are working together.

This American statement, at the highest level, indicates American support for Turkey regarding the conflict in and around Idlib, but it is nothing more than a statement. American Special Envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, had already announced this support in Ankara. However, the National Security Advisor, Robert O’Brien, said on the same day that the US would not send troops into the Idlib conflict zone. While O’Brien’s words are not surprising, as no one expected otherwise, it seemed to be a response to the statement made by Jeffrey and a warning to Ankara not to cling to illusions about the extent of Washington’s involvement in Syria in support of Turkey, after having withdrawn most of its forces from Upper Mesopotamia. ...

Regardless of the extent to which Washington can go in support of the Turkish war effort in the Idlib and Aleppo regions, it is clear that the Turkish president is playing, in this conflict, the game of blackmailing Russia with the Americans and the Americans with Russia. [my emphasis]