Turkey, Syria, Russia and refugees being released to head to Europe

Developments in the armed conflict between NATO ally Turkey and Russian ally Syria. Turkey is fighting on Syrian territory to create a zone in which to settle Syrian refugees and replace, i.e., ethnically cleanse an area long populated by Kurds.

Linah Alsaafin and Virginia Pietromarchi report in Turkey-Syria tensions escalate after troops killed: Live updates Aljazeera 02/28/2020:

Dozens of Turkish troops have been killed in Syrian government air raids, marking a dramatic escalation in the conflict between Ankara and Moscow-backed forces in northwestern Syria.

The 33 deaths followed an attack in Idlib late on Thursday and come as Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air power, are attempting to seize the last remaining territory held by Turkey-backed Syrian opposition forces.

Der Standard characterizes the situation a little more bluntly (André Ballin und Jürgen Gottschlich, Die Türkei steht in Syrien immer knapper vor dem offenen Krieg 28.02.2020):

Der seit langem befürchtete Ernstfall ist eingetreten. Die militärischen Auseinandersetzungen in der syrischen Rebellenprovinz Idlib sind in einen regelrechten Krieg zwischen der Türkei und den Truppen des Assad-Regimes ausgeartet. In der Nacht von Donnerstag auf Freitag sind bei einem Luftangriff syrischer Kampfflugzeuge auf Stellungen türkischer Soldaten mindestens 33 Soldaten getötet und 40 weitere schwer verletzt worden.

Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will mit dem Einsatz seiner Armee erreichen, dass Assad zumindest einen Teil von Idlib nicht mehr angreift, damit dort für fast drei Millionen Menschen, von denen nach UN-Angaben bereits eine Million in Zelten entlang der türkischen Grenze kampieren, eine Schutzzone entsteht. Die Türkei fürchtet, dass sonst erneut hunderttausende syrische Flüchtlinge über die Grenze kommen könnten, die das Land nicht mehr aufnehmen könne. ...

So nah an einem Krieg waren Russland und die Türkei jedenfalls seit 2015 nicht mehr. [meine Hervorhebungen]

{The long-feared emergency has arrived. The military clashes in the Syrian rebel-held province of Idlib have degenerated into a veritable war between Turkey and the Assad regime's forces. During the night from Thursday to Friday, an airstrike by Syrian warplanes on positions of Turkish soldiers killed at least 33 soldiers and seriously injured 40 others.}

With the deployment of his army, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants Assad to stop attacking at least part of Idlib, so a protection zone can be created for nearly three million people, of whom, according to the UN, one million have already camped in tents along the Turkish border. Turkey fears that otherwise hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees could cross the border, which the country can no longer accept.

Russia and Turkey have not been so close to war since at least 2015. [my emphasis]}

The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet on the Turkey-Syria conflict this evening at 21:00 GMT.

Semih Idiz reports on how Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan plans in the situation has gone serious awry (Idlib and the collapse of Erdogan’s foreign policy Al-Monitor 02/27/2020):

Turkey is an isolated country today that has confrontational ties with the United States and Russia, as well as the Arab world and Europe. It is trying to ensure its vital security interests against this difficult backdrop.

But the few friends Ankara has left, such as Qatar, Pakistan or Azerbaijan, provide Turkey with no strategic value that could strengthen its hand against its adversaries.

The only option Erdogan has is to try and play the United States and Russia against each other, as he has been doing for some time now, but this approach seems to also have run its course.

Erdogan’s ambitious intervention in Libya, also on the other side of Russia, is also not going well. At the same time, it has complicated relations with its NATO allies by Russian arms purchases:

Erdogan’s decision to purchase Russian made S-400 air defense systems — over the objections of Turkey’s NATO allies — was also considered to be more of an act of defiance of the West than a coherent move based on a sound military rationale.

Erdogan’s biggest miscalculation is proving to be the reliance he placed on Russia.

And, contrary to his 2016 agreement with Angela Merkel, he's now sending an increased flow of refugees into Europe (Turkey says it will let refugees into Europe after troops killed in Syria Reuters 02/28/2020). And the EU is not prepared for a new refugee surge like that of 2015-16. "Greece and Bulgaria reinforced their borders in response to Turkey’s threat to reopen the frontier, shut under an agreement that halted the migration crisis of 2015-2016, when more than a million people crossed into Europe by foot."