Turkey's current touchy tangle with Syria, Russia, Kurds, NATO, and the EU

The architects of the Iraq War wanted to wreck existing governments in the Middle East - not including Saudi Arabia, of course - through "wars of liberation" and thereby strengthen the relative positions of the US and Israel. The chain of events runs from the US invasion of Iraq, to the resulting installation of an Iraqi government with a pro-Iranian foreign policy orientation, to the rise of the Islamic State and a long civil war in Syria now currently has NATO ally Turkey on the verge of a war with Syria and Russia.

There were many other factors involved, of course. But to a very great extent, the current precarious political-military situation on the Syrian border is a direct result of the Iraq War. And, to a large extent, this instability, death, and massive social disruption was a desired outcome of the advocates of the Iraq War.

According to this report from Al-Monitor (Maxim Suchkov, Will Russia, Turkey go to war over Syria's Idlib? 02/28/2020):

Earlier today [Friday], two Russian warships armed with cruise missiles transited from Sevastopol, Crimea, through the Bosporus Strait in Istanbul to Mediterranean waters.

Turkey reacted to the attacks by launching military strikes on the Syrian positions, allegedly “neutralizing 309 regime troops.” It also opened its borders for Syrian refugees to enter Europe, likely to pressure the Europeans to take a harsher stance on Russia and Syria. Erdogan's decision triggered angry reactions from Greece, which depolyed [sic] police reinforcements to the country’s border checkpoints with Turkey to prevent the influx of new migrants. Ankara also called for an emergency NATO meeting over the situation in Syria. [my emphasis]

Austria's rightwing (ÖVP) Chancellor Sebastian "Basti" Kurz wasted little time in banging his favorite xenophobic drum against refugees and immigrants:

#Österreich ist auch bereit, die Länder an der Außengrenze mit zusätzlichen Polizisten zu unterstützen, wie Innenminister @karlnehammer bereits gestern betont hat. Wenn der Schutz der EU-Außengrenze nicht gelingen sollte, dann wird Österreich seine Grenzen schützen.

— Sebastian Kurz (@sebastiankurz) February 29, 2020

My Translation:

A situation like [the large refugee influx to Northern Europe in] 2015 must not be repeated. Our aim must be to properly protect the EU's external borders, to stop illegal migrants there and not to wave them through.

Austria is also prepared to support the countries on the external border with additional police officers, as Interior Minister Karl Nehammer stressed yesterday. If the protection of the EU's external border is not successful, Austria will protect its borders.

I've written before about the EU's sad neglect of the real immigration needs and refugee problems, e.g., Langfristige Herausforderungen der EU bei Einwanderung und Flüchtlingen (3 Teilen); EU long-term challenges on immigration and refugees (3 Parts).

The EU "solved" the acute phrase of the refugee crisis in 2015-16 which far-right parties exploited for demagogic appeals with non-trivial ´benefit to their electoral position, by an agreement that Angela Merkel negotiated with Turkey to hold refugees. Turkey's latest action appears to breach that agreement. And that agreement gave Turkey the ability to threaten the EU in other policy areas, which he is now doing.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan's foreign policy is currently a mess. He thumbed his nose at his NATO partners by accepting weapons sales from Russia that were opposed by other NATO members. Then he launched a military operation inside Syria, which is backed by Russia. He also intervened in the Libyan civil war underway, on the opposing side to the one backed by Russia.

Turkey's expressed goal in its recent invasion of northern Syria was to repatriate some of the millions Syrian refugees they were hosting. But Erdoğan used that as an excuse for “ethnic cleansing” of Kurds out of that region, generated additional refugees in the process. Because Erdoğan also wants to establish a Turkish-controlled buffer zone against a possible Kurdish independence movement. The US had previously supporter the leftist Kurdish YPG organization. But Trump abandoned them under pressure from Turkey. See: Juan Cole, Abandoned by Trump, Syrian Kurds frantically turn to Moscow for Protection from Turkey Informed Comment 12/28/2018.

Linah Alsaafin reports (Erdogan, Putin discuss Syria as Turkey demands truce in Idlib Aljazeera 02/28/2020:

Nearly a million people have been forced from their homes in Idlib since the Syrian government launched its offensive to capture the province from Turkey-backed opposition forces in December - a crisis the United Nations has called a "man-made humanitarian nightmare". ...

Earlier this month, forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad captured the arterial M5 highway, which links all of the country's major cities and six provinces, and consolidated control over Aleppo province. This has come at a heavy cost to the Turkish military, which has 12 observation posts in the region under a 2017 and 2018 "de-escalation zone" agreement with Russia.

Some of these positions now lie in areas seized by the Syrian government.

Speaking in Ankara on Friday, Turkey's Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said his country's military had responded to the Syrian government attack by striking 200 of their targets from the air and ground. Some 309 Syrian troops were "neutralised", he said. Among the targets were Syrian government helicopters, military tanks, armoured vehicles, howitzers and ammunition depots.

"This attack [on Turkish soldiers] occurred even though the locations of our troops had been coordinated with Russian officials in the field," he said. The Russian foreign ministry, denied the claim, saying: "Turkish soldiers who were in the battle formations of terrorists came under the fire of Syrian troops."

Maxim Suchkov assess the current state of Turkish-Russian relations this way:

Putin and Erdogan are increasingly unhappy with one another but both still need each other in Syria and beyond. To extend the “marriage of convenience” metaphor that is frequently applied to describe the Russia-Turkey partnership, the two have to stay together “for the kids” — joint trade, growing interdependency in energy supplies, the Akkuyu nuclear power plant and the S-400 missile deal as well as other possible contracts and political investments the two leaders have made into developing the relationship.

For Russia, the value of Turkey in these and other domains has not depreciated. It's even grown since the last stress test Moscow and Ankara experienced when Turkey downed the Russian jet in November 2015. Against this particular measurement, the partnership with Syria seems a lot less significant. Yet the price of not standing up for its ally in Damascus is measured in different currency in Moscow — one that buys global status.

Metin Gurcan describes the recent diplomatic maneuvers between Turkey and its NATO allies in Can Ankara’s sudden change of heart on NATO save the day in Idlib? 02/25/2020.

With Turkish losses mounting in #Syria , President Erdogan is brushing up against the limits of his pivot to Russia. Putin has chosen Assad over Erdogan. https://t.co/98TeSXfShS

— Joshua Landis (@joshua_landis) February 29, 2020