Syria and Turkey and the Idlib crisis and the US and Russian involvements

European policymakers and the public as well need to be preparing for the refugee fallout from Syria's current brutal military operations in Idlib province.

Aljazeera reports on the situation in 'Nowhere is safe': UN warns of urgent danger of Syria escalation 02/19/2020, noting that Syria's action in Idlib has produced "the biggest wave of displacement since the start of the war nearly nine years ago."

Syria recently killed some Turkish troops. And Turkey is threatening expanded military action against Syria, which backed by Russia:

"An operation in Idlib is imminent," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his party's legislators in Parliament on Wednesday. "We are counting down, we are making our final warnings".

Ankara, which supports several rebel groups in northwest Syria, has been outraged since recent Syrian government attacks in Idlib province killed 13 Turkish military personnel in two weeks. It is also eager to prevent another flood of refugees into its territory adding to the 3.6 million Syrians it already hosts.

Responding to Erdogan's comments, Russia - the main ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - said any operation against Syrian forces in Idlib would be the "worst scenario".

Mark Katz discusses the Turkey-Russia angle in How long can Russia and Turkey cooperate amid a myriad of conflictual hazards? Responsible Statecraft 02/17/2020. Here's one of the immediate risks:

And those differences are serious, especially in Syria where the Russian-backed Assad regime’s determination to retake Idlib from the Turkish-backed Syrian opposition there is now coming to the fore. What Ankara fears is that if the Assad regime retakes Idlib, a flood of refugees will stream north into Turkey where Ankara is already struggling to support previous waves of refugees from the Syrian civil war that has been going on since 2011. Further, if the Assad regime retakes Idlib, it may then seek to retake areas further north that Turkey now has influence over, such as Afrin. Conflict between Turkish and Assad regime forces involving Russian personnel has already occurred and could grow worse. [my emphasis]

Turkey and Russia are also on opposing sides in Libya. "A similar dynamic may be developing in the conflict between Libya’s U.N.-recognized government and General Khalifa Haftar in which Turkey is aiding the former and Russia (via private military contractors) is helping the latter."

Turkey is a NATO ally of the US and European NATO members. NATO is a mutual defense treaty obligating members to defend each other against outside aggression, although the commitment to supportive military action isn't automatic. Libya is in no shape to invade Turkey and Syria is highly unlikely to do so. But NATO ally Turkey is currently in a shooting conflict with Syria and is occupying part of Syria territory.

Bakr Sidqi reports for the Middle East Monitor (As Tensions Flare between Russia and Turkey in Syria, will Trump be Drawn in on side of Ankara? 02/21/2020) on the complicated diplomatic triangle of Ankara, Washington, and Moscow:

Yesterday, there was a telephone conversation between Erdogan and US President Donald Trump, the latter stated they had discussed matters regarding Idlib, adding that they are working together.

This American statement, at the highest level, indicates American support for Turkey regarding the conflict in and around Idlib, but it is nothing more than a statement. American Special Envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey, had already announced this support in Ankara. However, the National Security Advisor, Robert O’Brien, said on the same day that the US would not send troops into the Idlib conflict zone. While O’Brien’s words are not surprising, as no one expected otherwise, it seemed to be a response to the statement made by Jeffrey and a warning to Ankara not to cling to illusions about the extent of Washington’s involvement in Syria in support of Turkey, after having withdrawn most of its forces from Upper Mesopotamia. ...

Regardless of the extent to which Washington can go in support of the Turkish war effort in the Idlib and Aleppo regions, it is clear that the Turkish president is playing, in this conflict, the game of blackmailing Russia with the Americans and the Americans with Russia. [my emphasis]