Norbert Röttgen on Angela Merkel's way of dealing with crises

Norbert Röttgen is a member of the German Budestag for the CDU (Christian Democratic Union), Angela Merkel's party. He was Environment Minister in Merkel's Cabinent 2009-2013 and is currently the chair of the Bundestag Foreign Policy Committee.

He gave an interview to Der Spiegel that has been rightly interpreted as a wide-reaching criticism of Angela Merkel's crisis management. Whether or not he has a better course for the country and his party to follow, Röttgen has some perceptive observations that focus on the key problem of how Merkel approaches crises. ("Den Bach runter", Der Spiegel 41:2018 {06.10.2018}; Röttgen greift Merkel an Süddeutsche Zeitung 05.10.2018)

Röttgen says that Merkel's politics are unraveling. The immediate background of his comments are the state elections in Bavaria this coming Sunday. The Bavarian CSU (Christian Social Union) has allied with the CDU since the immediate postwar era, so much so that one could easily talk about the "CDU/CSU" as a single party on the national level. But it is a separate party. Their political strategy has always been to capture the conservative vote, even when it means taking nasty positions that weren't obviously consistent with either the "C" or the "S" in their party's name.

But now the CSU is facing a credible challenge on the right from the far-right, the TrumpPutinist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which won enough votes nationally in 2017 to enter the Bundestag. They are currently the third largest party, and the biggest opposition party to Merkel's GroKo (Grand Coalition) of the CDU/CSU and the SPD. And given the xenophobic fears that the CSU and some its leaders have happily stoked since 2015, it's very possible that the AfD will win a significant number of voters from the CSU. ( Matthew Karnitschnig, The man who lost Bavaria Politico EU 10/12/2018) On the left-center, the Greens in Bavaria seem to be benefitting from the political shifts more than the Social Democrats (SPD), the latter currently at serious risk of becoming a minor party.

Röttgen makes three important points that should be at the center of political conversations about the refugee/immigration issue in Europe.

The immigration crisis that became acute in 2015-16 was obviously already there but Merkel's government didn't prioritize it.

Die Migrationskrise hat uns vollig unvorbereitet getroffen. Dabei hat Deutschland wie fast alle europäischen Staaten einen Hilferuf des Weltenährungsprogramnms der Vereinten Nationen ignoriert. Öffensichtlich stimmt etwas nicht in unserer Organisation von Politik, wenn es darum geht, Krisen zu erkennen. Selbst wenn sie eigentlich nicht mehr zu übersehen sind, reagieren wir nicht. Daraus muss man doch mal Schlüsse ziehen.

{The migration crisis caught us fully unprepared. Including the fact that Germany, like almost all other European states, had ignored a call for assistance from the UN World Food Program. Clearly something is wrong in the way we organize policies when it comes to recognizing crises. Even when they are really can't be overlooked any more, we don't react. We have to draw conclusions from that.}

Röttgen there does use the word preferred by anti-immigrant agitators, "migrant" rather than "refugee" or "immigrant."

The euro crisis that reached its most acute phase in 2015 with the negotiations over Greek debt also showed the serious failure of the government's prior kick-the-can-down-the-road approach.

Wir verlieren [Wähler] derzeit dramatisch, weil zu der Finanz- und zur Eurokrise noch eine weitere Krise hinzugekommen ist, welche die Menschen viel stärker berührt, nämlich die Migrationskrise. Die ist nicht mehr abstrakt, sondern mit Gesichtern verbunden. Es löst in vielen emotional und psychisch etwas aus, wenn in sehr kurzer Zeit sehr viele fremde Menschen kommen. Das hat die vorher schon vorhandenen Krisensymptome verschärft.

{We are losing [voters] dramatically right now, because in addition to the financial and euro crisis an additional crisis also added that touched people even more strongly, namely the migration crisis. It is no longer abstract, but rather is tied to faces. In many people, it releases something emotional and psychologica, if a lot of foreign people come. That intensified the crisis symtoms that were already there.}

The part about mass immigration triggering fear and anxiety for people is true. But a lot of bad faith can also hide behind phrases like that, too. So it's always important to keep in mind on this issue that polls in Germany and Austria show consistently that fear of immigration is inversely related to the presence of immigrants where the respodents live. The more people have contact with actual immigrants, the less xenophobic they are on average.But he's right to connect reactions to the finance crisis and the Greek crisis of 2015 in particular to the European responses to the 2015-16 refugee wave. Because it's hard to see how the nationalist venom that Merkel's government encouraged against Greece in early 2015 didn't contribute in some major way to the nationalist responses and the resentment of being dictated to by Germany in the 2015-16 refugee crisis.

None of that excuses the irresponsbile conduct of most EU countries in refusing to accept refugees in that crisis, of course. Nor have any of them stepped up to provide leadership on realistic solutions to the continuing refugee dilemma. They prefer to float imaginary solutions (long-term development aid to African and Middle Eastern countries, asylum application centers in North Africa, chest-pounding to "close the borders!!!") out of some combination of reckless irresponsbility and hope they postpone new crises until they become some other politicians' problem.

Röttgen recognizes that processes for assimilation of new immigrants, called "integration"in Germany and Austria, are currently inadequate and need to be systematically improved.

Um es klar zu sagen: Der Fehler war nicht, diejenigen nach Deutschland zu lassen, die schon in Europa waren. Das habe ich immer als praktisch, humanitär und alternativlos angesehen, wenn Sie mir dieses Wort gestatten. Aber es sind jetzt rund eine Million Menschen aus zum Teil sehr entfernten Kulturen hier. Anzunehmen, dass wir das mit unserem traditionellen Integrationsinstrumentarium, das einmal für türkische  astarbeiter entwickelt wurde, bewältigen konnten, ist unrealistisch. Wir brauchten ein ganz neues Integrationskonzept. Aber darüber debattieren wir nicht.

{To say it clearly: The mistake was not in allowing those who were already in Europe to come to Germany. I've always viewed that as practical, humanitarian, and without an alternative, if you will allow me this phrase. But right now there are about a million people here that in part are from very different cultures. To assume that with our traditional methods of integration, that were developed at an earlier time for Turkish guest workers, that we can handle that is unrealistic. We need a completely new integration concept. But we aren't even debating it.}

Realism alone can't overcome xenophobic fear-mongering. But it's a necessary part of it. And it's even more necessary to develop practical solutions and practical plans for the ongoing chronic immigration problem.