Showing posts with label ruy teixeira. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ruy teixeira. Show all posts

Monday, November 1, 2021

Thomas Edsall trolls the Democratic Party (Part 2 of 2)

Thomas Edsall addresses tensions in the potential Democratic voting coalition between white voters and people of color in Democrats Can't Just Give the People What They Want New York Times 10/13/2021. In Part !, I looked at how Edsall approaches a conventional but superficial assumption on which pollsters and reporters often rely, the idea that "non-college educated" voters can be equated with "working-class voters."

In his quest to see how Democrats might attract more white working-class voters, he poses these three questions:
  1. Should Democrats support and defend gender- and race-based affirmative action policies?
  2. If asked in a debate, what should a Democrat say about Ibram X. Kendi's claim that "standardized tests have become the most effective racist weapon ever devised to objectively degrade Black and brown minds and legally exclude their bodies from prestigious schools"?
  3. How should a Democrat respond to questions concerning intergenerational poverty, nonmarital births and the issue of fatherlessness?
By coincidence or otherwise, his questions invoke favorite conservative talking points against African-Americans and against laws to oppose racial discrimination.

Affirmative action has been an issue since the Nixon Administration, which first started using an "affirmative action" approach to enforcing federal anti-discrimination laws and then campaigned against "quotas," which immediately became the polemical conservative label for affirmative action. Affirmative action essentially means that employers and institutions must be able to show that they are making a serious attempt to comply with anti-discrimination laws. (The term "affirmative action" is an old common law term.)

The third question is just repeating tropes that Republicans have been using for years and poor people and minorities. Politicians have been making those charges and responding to them for decades.

But I was particularly struck by Edsall's second question, which seemed to be referring to someone (Ibram X. Kendi) who is a household name. Here Edsall is trolling with the anti-critical-race-theory theme, and specifically with a propagandistic claim involving Kendi - who of course is not at all a household name.

David Goldberg gives some context in The War on Critical Race Theory Boston Review 05/07/2021:
The attacks [against "critical race theory"] have also made their way to my office doorstep, probably due to my small contribution to the body of scholarship to which “critical race theory” actually refers—scholarship that first emerged several decades ago, not in the last few years, as a critical response to what was then known as “critical legal studies.” When I picked up my mail a few weeks ago, I found a thick hand-addressed envelope with no return address; the contents included an eight-page-long screed denouncing CRT as “hateful fraud.” The documents are copies of resources prepared by the Chinese American Citizens Alliance Greater New York (CACAGNY), which filed an amicus brief in the failed Supreme Court case challenging what the group characterized as discrimination by Harvard University against Asian American applicants. The materials echo essays sponsored by the Heritage Foundation, which calls CRT “the new intolerance” and “the rejection of the underpinnings of Western civilization.” The materials suggest a more coordinated campaign than many seem to have realized; I am surely not the only one who received this package.

In conservative accounts, the two authors most commonly cited as CRT’s principal exemplars are Ibram X. Kendi, who trained not in law but in African American Studies (he is CRT’s “New Age guru,” according to the Heritage Foundation), and Robin DiAngelo, a professor of education. Neither is a critical race theorist in the traditional legal sense, and Kendi’s popularizing of some work on race shares little with DiAngelo’s reductive account of what she calls “white fragility.” Other screeds also dismiss philosophers Angela Davis and Achille Mbembe as “scholar-activists” (as if there is something damning about the title). Of course, there is no evidence anywhere of either ever claiming anything resembling that “everyone and everything White is complicit” in racial oppression, or that “all unequal outcomes by race . . . is the result of racial oppression,” as the CACAGNY documents put it. [my emphasis]
In other words, Edsall there is just repeating a stock conservative propaganda talking point against "CRT". And the cherry-picked quote from Kendi about the very legitimate concerns about racial and class biases in standardized tests is presumably meant to offer some academic jargon that might sound like some kind of ethnocentric special pleading to someone who has paid no attention to the standardized-test arguments.

Edsall quotes Ruy Teixeira, currently listed as a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, who seems to have adopted some fairly rigid views of what he calls the "cultural left" within the Democratic Party. For instance, he makes that argument in this piece, The Cultural Left Puts a Ceiling on Democratic Support The Liberal Patriot 09/23/2021. I'll just say here it looks like an unsettling turn on Texeira's part. He certainly seems to be pessimistic about the possibilities for any kind of significant left politics, and actually seems to view it as generally undesirable. (The Five Deadly Sins of the Left American Compass 10/13/2020) He also advocates a "liberal nationalism" and accuses the Democratic Party left of "encouraging identity-based segregation." (Peter Juul and Ruy Teixeira, Toward the Next Frontier: The Case for a New Liberal Nationalism American Affairs 4:3 Fall 2020)

Sunday, September 1, 2019

That whole Jill Stein thing in 2016 again …

Ruy Teixeira has written a useful short article on the perennially important theological question of whether Green Party candidate Jill Stein cost Hillary Clinton the Presidential election in 2016: Did Third Parties Sink Hillary Clinton in 2016? American Prospect 08/29/2019.

He deals with the effect of third-party Presidential candidates more generally, which include Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party) and Evan McMullin (Independent), not only Jill Stein.

Teixeira refers to a study, whose conclusions he summarizes this way:
Trump still wins the electoral vote [in an estimate without the two small parties], only by a larger margin, 309–229. This is because he still carries the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while also carrying New Hampshire by a narrow margin. This makes sense when one considers the actual distribution of the third-party vote in these states: Michigan, Johnson 3.6 percent/Stein 1.1 percent; New Hampshire, Johnson 4.9/Stein .9; Pennsylvania, Johnson 2.4/Stein .8; Wisconsin, Johnson 3.6/Stein 1.
So the third-party effect is not necessarily anti-Democratic. And Hillary Clinton did not lose the 2016 election because of it.

Yes, that sound you hear is the anguished screaming of corporate Democrats for whom Jill Stein will forever be a Putin stooge who put Trump in the White House by denying her the Electoral College votes of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

From the figures quoted above - Michigan, Johnson 3.6%, Stein; Pennsylvania J 2.4%, S 1.1%; Wisconsin J 3.6%, S 1.1%:

  • If Johnson had not been in the race, and
  • If Stein had still been in the race, and
  • If all Johnson's voters had still voted, and
  • If all of them had gone to Clinton,
  • Then Clinton might have won.

Also:

  • If neither Stein nor Johnson had been in the race, and
  • If all Stein’s and Johnson’s voters had still voted, and
  • If more than half of the Stein and Johnson voters had gone to Clinton,
  • Then Maybe Clinton would have won.

I didn’t crunch the numbers any more exactly. But Teixeira’s figures put the Jill Stein question in the right context.

While Libertarian voters are closer to Republicans positions and Greens closer to the Democrats’, it would be wrong to simply assume that all the Libertarian voters would have gone to Trump and the Greens to Clinton.

But third party voters wouldn’t all have gone to their supposedly corresponding major party. Some of them wouldn’t have voted, or just wrote some candidate in. If either Stein or Johnson had not been there and the other was, some Johnson voters would have gone to Stein and vice versa. It’s likely that some Stein voters were confused enough to have voted for Trump. The Johnson voters would have probably gone more for Trump than Clinton, which is why Johnson’s absence from the race wouldn’t necessarily have put Clinton over the top.

The study to which Teixeira referred is now entirely new. Its publication date is April 2008, America’s Electoral Future Demographic Shifts and the Future of the Trump Coalition, authored by Teixeira, Robert Griffin and William Frey.

That’s not to say that neither the Republicans nor the Democrats will attempt to play strategic games to use third parties against the other side. Politics is politics. But evidence-based analysis of politics is generally preferable to the alternatives.

Das ganze Jill Stein Ding im Jahr 2016 wieder ...

Ruy Teixeira hat einen nützlichen kurzen Artikel über die immer wichtigere theologische Frage geschrieben, ob die Kandidatin der Grünen, Jill Stein, Hillary Clinton die amerikanische Präsidentschaftswahl 2016 gekostet hat:Did Third Parties Sink Hillary Clinton in 2016? American Prospect 29.08.2019

Er beschäftigt sich mit der Wirkung von Drittkandidaten im Allgemeinen Präsidentschaftswahl, zu denen Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party) und Evan McMullin (Unabhängig) gehören, nicht nur Jill Stein.

Teixeira bezieht sich auf eine Studie, deren Schlussfolgerungen er so zusammenfasst:
[in einer Schätzung ohne die beiden kleinen Parteien] gewinnt Trump die Wahl immer noch, nur mit einem größeren Vorsprung, 309-229. Das liegt daran, dass er immer noch die Schlüsselstaaten Michigan, Pennsylvania und Wisconsin trägt, während er auch New Hampshire mit einem knappen Vorsprung trägt. Das macht Sinn, wenn man die tatsächliche Verteilung der Dritt-Parteien-Stimmen in diesen Staaten betrachtet: Michigan, Johnson 3,6 Prozent/Stein 1,1 Prozent; New Hampshire, Johnson 4.9/Stein .9; Pennsylvania, Johnson 2.4/Stein .8; Wisconsin, Johnson 3.6/Stein 1.
Der Effekt Dritter Parteien hat also nicht unbedingt die Demokratische Partei geschadet. Und Hillary Clinton hat die Wahl 2016 dadurch nicht verloren.

Ja, dieser Ton, den Sie hören, ist das ängstliche Schreien der Demokraten, für die Jill Stein für immer ein Putin-Stooge sein wird, der Trump ins Weiße Haus brachte, indem er ihr die Stimmen des Electoral College von Michigan, Pennsylvania und Wisconsin verweigerte. Aus den oben genannten Zahlen - Michigan, Johnson 3,6%, Stein; Pennsylvania J 2,4%, S 1,1%; Wisconsin J 3,6%, S 1,1%:

  • Wäre Johnson nicht im Rennen gewesen, und
  • Wenn Stein noch im Rennen gewesen wäre, und
  • Hätten alle Steins Wähler noch abgestimmt, und
  • Wenn sie alle zu Clinton gegangen wären, dann Clinton hätte gewinnen können.
Auch:
  • Wenn weder Stein noch Johnson im Rennen gewesen wären, und
  • Wenn alle Wähler von Stein und Johnson noch abgestimmt hätten und
  • Wenn mehr als die Hälfte der Stein- und Johnson-Wähler zu Clinton gegangen wäre,
  • Dann Vielleicht hätte Clinton gewonnen.
Ich habe die Zahlen nicht genauer geknackt. Doch Teixeiras Zahlen stellen die Jill-Stein-Frage in den richtigen Kontext.

Obwohl die libertären Wähler den Positionen der Republikaner und den Grünen näher an den Demokraten sind, wäre es falsch, einfach davon auszugehen, dass alle libertären Wähler zu Trump und die Grünen zu Clinton gegangen wären.

Aber dritt-parteiliche Wähler wären nicht alle zu ihrer angeblich entsprechenden großen Partei gegangen. Einige von ihnen hätten nicht abgestimmt oder einfach nur einen Kandidaten hineingeschrieben. Wenn Stein oder Johnson nicht da gewesen wären und der andere war es, wären einige Johnson-Wähler zu Stein gegangen und umgekehrt. Es ist wahrscheinlich, dass einige Stein-Wähler so verwirrt waren, dass sie für Trump gestimmt hätten. Die Johnson-Wähler wären wahrscheinlich mehr zu Trump gegangen als Clinton, weshalb Johnsons Abwesenheit aus dem Rennen Clinton nicht unbedingt an die Spitze gebracht hätte.

Die Studie, auf die Teixeira Bezug genommen hat, ist nicht völlig neu. Das Veröffentlichungsdatum ist April 2008, America es Electoral Future Demographic Shifts and the Future of the Trump Coalition, verfasst von Teixeira, Robert Griffin und William Frey.

Das soll nicht heißen, dass weder die Republikaner noch die Demokraten versuchen werden, strategische Spiele zu spielen, um eine dritte Partei gegen die andere Seite einzusetzen. Politik ist Politik. Aber eine evidenzbasierte Analyse der Politik ist im Allgemeinen den Alternativen vorzuziehen.