Showing posts with label china. Show all posts
Showing posts with label china. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

The Ukraine crisis and Russia-China relations

One important factor in the current Ukraine crisis doesn't seem to get a lot of coverage in the news on the crisis is the relationship of Russia and China.

Giorgio Cafiero and Daniel Wagner wrote about the China factor in the aftermath of Russia's occupation of the Crimea in 2014 (How China Benefits From the Ukraine Crisis 04/01/2014):
Having stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia on the Syrian civil war, China vetoed three United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on the basis that Syria's sovereignty was threatened by Western powers. Beijing and Moscow have also defended their aligned positions on a plethora of pariah states and international crises -- all under the banner of non-interference in the affairs of sovereign nations. China was therefore placed in a difficult position when Russia was accused of violating Ukraine's sovereignty by interfering in Crimea. Fearful of being accused of moral hypocrisy, China did not want to be seen as overtly supporting Moscow, but at the same time, China was not eager to align with the West against the Kremlin, given Russia's growing importance to China's overall foreign policy.

The emerging China-Russia alliance therefore serves as a counterbalance to the U.S. while advancing China's commercial, energy and military interests. Across their shared 2,700 mile border, China and Russia have increased bilateral trade seven-fold since 2002. China has grown increasingly dependent on Russia, as the world's top energy exporter, to quench its seemingly insatiable thirst for oil and natural gas. China has become the main beneficiary of the Russian Eastern Siberia/Pacific Ocean oil pipeline, and it buys more military equipment from Russia than from any other country. [my emphasis]
China does have investments and interests in Ukraine that are not the same as Russia's. Siegfried Kottel wrote about the shift to closer relations between China and Russia in the context of the Crimean crisis of 2014 in China: Der neue Seehegemon, Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik 7:2014; my translation from the German):
For a long time, it seemed as if China was treading this path [expanding its regional influence] alone. But it is precisely the Ukraine crisis that is now driving a new ally into China's arms: Russia. With his Ukraine policy, Russian President Vladimir Putin has maneuvered himself into an isolation in which Russia threatens to lose its sales markets for energy and the investments urgently needed for modernization from Western industrialized countries. This has now led the Russian president to seek greater proximity to the Chinese leadership. Chinese President Xi Jinping finds this rapprochement very convenient – for strategic reasons but also because China is always looking for new sources of energy. [my emphasis]
Kottel also noted, "The Ukraine is traditionally an important arms supplier for the Chinese Army."

Yes, there's more going on in the Ukraine crisis than a Cold-War-nostalgia testosterone contest.

Thursday, December 2, 2021

Russia, NATO, China and the tensions over Ukraine

Sarah Rainsford reminds us that Russia concerns about further NATO expansion on its border is a key issue at play in the current Ukraine-Russia tensions. (Russia-Ukraine border: Why Moscow is stoking tensions BBC News 11/28/2021) It's not the only one. And of course the Russians would be glad to magnify the significance of that concern in the service of diplomacy and propaganda.

But it's unthinkable that it's not a real concern on their part, aside from the fact that they've been saying it for years. It's kind of a banal thought exercise, and oversimplified, but it might help to imagine how the US would regard Canada or Mexico joining a mutual defense treaty with Russia or China. In the world of today, it's hard to imagine that it would be regarded in the mainstream, and by most hardcore "restraint" advocates, as a very real and legitimate national security concern.

Rainsford reports:
["Most analysts"] see the Kremlin sending a message that it's ready to defend its "red lines" on Ukraine: above all, that it must not join Nato.

"I think for Putin it's really important. He thinks the West has begun giving Ukraine's elite hope about joining Nato," political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya at R.Politik told the BBC.

"The training, the weapons and so on are like a red rag to a bull for Putin and he thinks if he doesn't act today, then tomorrow there will be Nato bases in Ukraine. He needs to put a stop to that."

Ukraine's desire to join the security bloc is nothing new, nor is Russia's insistence on vetoing that ambition in what it sees as its own "back yard".

But Moscow has been rattled recently by the Ukrainian military using Turkish drones against Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine; the flight near Crimea of two nuclear-capable US bombers was an extra irritant.

There's also concern that the so-called Minsk agreements, a framework for ending Ukraine's seven-year-old conflict that's too contentious to actually implement, could be jettisoned for something more favourable to Kyiv. [my emphasis]
On the other hand, Russia's actions in 2014 would seem to have already effectively block Ukraine from joining NATO. Or rather, from NATO allowing Ukraine to join. Because Russia not only controls but has formally annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea, unquestionably in violation of international law. Russia also controls the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, though without formally annexing them.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made this comment on NATO's relation to Ukraine on 11/30/2021 (Doorstep statement NATO):
Our presence in Eastern part of the Alliance is, of course, defensive.

It was actually the increased presence of NATO troops in this Eastern part of the Alliance, in the Black Sea region, and in the Baltic region was triggered by Russia's use of force against Ukraine back in 2014, with the illegal annexation of Crimea, and with the continued destabilization of Donbas, Eastern Ukraine. So there's no doubt that this was a defensive response to what we saw back then.

I think it is important to distinguish between NATO Allies and partner Ukraine. NATO Allies, there we provide [Article 5] guarantees, collective defence guarantees, and we will defend and protect all Allies.

Ukraine is a partner, a highly valued partner. We provide support, political, practical support. Allies provide training, capacity building, equipment and I am absolutely certain that Allies will recommit and reconfirm their strong support to Ukraine also during the meeting today.

But as I said there's a difference between a partner Ukraine and an Ally like for instance Latvia. [my emphasis]
There are other closely-related issues, such as Russian pipelines serving Western Europe and its ambitions to hold Belarus as more oriented toward Russia than towards Poland and the West - the latter a situation which certainly seems to be the case at the moment!

What I have not seen much remarked on in recent news analyses of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is how it plays in Russia-China-USA relations. After all, the US from the Nixon Administration to the fall of the USSR pursued a balancing strategy of US China to balance against the Soviet Union. Russia and China have generally good relations right now. With the "New Cold War" against China getting a lot of attention during the Biden-Harris Administration, China can't be entirely sorry to see the US and NATO engaged with tensions with Russia involving Ukraine.

China has been pursuing closer relations with Ukraine for years. (Nicolas Tenzer, Europe can't ignore Chinese encroachment in Ukraine EUObserver 11/22/2021) So China definitely figures into this mix. In this case, both Russia and China have reason to be concerned about closer Ukrainian ties to the West. Although that doesn't mean China's and Russia's interests are completely aligned on Ukraine. Putin's government presumably has concerns about China gaining what it sees as excessive influence in Ukraine, too.

The Ukrainian government is not a passive pawn in all this. They are pursuing their own goals which also don't match up precisely with those of NATO, Russia, and China. See:

Sunday, November 28, 2021

"Quemoy-and-Matsu" Watch: Can the US really not live for more than a few years without a "new Cold War"?

The "New Cold War" narrative about conflict between the US and China rolls along, with a disturbing supply of that sacred Bipartisanship (on dubious military policies) on hand. Rajan Menon of the Quincy Institute writes in How U.S.-China ‘competition’ could lead both countries to disaster Los Angeles Times 11/22/2021.

Compare the China policies of Donald Trump and Joe Biden and you’ll find many more similarities than differences. Four months after Biden’s inauguration, Kurt M. Campbell, coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs at the National Security Council, declared that engagement, the approach American leaders have adopted toward China since the 1970s, had failed and that “the dominant paradigm is going to be competition.” A much-praised book by Campbell’s top deputy, Rush Doshi, warns that China’s goal is nothing less than supplanting the United States as the world’s premier power.

Left unsaid by both officials is what this future U.S.-China “competition” will look like, and what will prevent it from turning violent.

Both sides would incur massive losses in blood and treasure if their rivalry intensifies untempered by any sense of shared interests, and leads to war. Ditto the rest of the world.

Deutsche Welle brings this report, U.S. lawmakers vow 'rock solid' commitment to Taiwan 11/27/2021:


Note in this video that the DW interviewer comments that China has "sent in more than 150 warplanes into Taiwanese air space," with no mention of the crucial difference between Taiwan's "offshore" Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and Taiwan's sovereign airspace. Reporting on this without noting that distinction is not only lazy but irresponsible, because war hawks and defense contractor lobbyists are using a very deceptive talking point here for purposes that hardly limited to legitimate national security concerns.

After nearly a year of Biden's New Cold War policy against China, the more convinced I am that it is just a continuing of the same great-power arrogance and triumphalism that has plagued the US since the Second World War and especially since 1989.

And on this, he so far has accomplished the bipartisanship he promoted as one of his most important political assets during the 2020 Presidential campaign. Yukon Huang of the Carnegie Asia Program sketches the (bipartisan) background of the current policy this way (The U.S.-China Trade War Has Become a Cold War Carnegie Endowment 09/16/2021):
What began as a trade war over China’s unfair economic policies has now evolved into a so-called cold war propelled by differing ideologies. U.S.-China bilateral relations took a nosedive in 2018 when then U.S. president Donald Trump’s obsession with trade deficits led him to impose punitive tariffs on China. The tariffs were followed by restrictions on both China’s access to high-tech U.S. products and foreign investments involving security concerns and by allegations of unfair Chinese commercial practices.

Despite pleas from the U.S. business community to ease tensions, U.S. President Joe Biden so far has amplified his predecessor’s policies by strengthening anti-China alliances and implementing additional sanctions. Biden now characterizes the U.S.-China conflict as “a battle between the utility of democracies in the twenty-first century and autocracies.” Putin's Russia and the 'New Cold War'-Interpreting Myth and Reality 2008 But the logic underpinning the U.S. trade war was flawed, and the more recent, politically driven restrictions are counterproductive given the damaging long-term economic consequences for both sides. Nonetheless, there have been few signs to date that Biden is likely to change course. In the meantime, then, Europeans may be in a better position for productive give-and-take discussions with China on economic policymaking. [my emphasis]
The hope that the EU countries can establish some kind of offsetting policy to that of the US on China looks like a long shot, when we think about how sadly and scandalously the EU just allowed Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukachenko to send them into a panic with a few thousand refugees on the borders of Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania.

It's worth remembering that not so long ago, entrepreneurs of war were promoting the "New Cold War" - but with Russia.

The original Cold War of roughly 1947-1989 wound up spilling a lot of blood and came perilously close to a nuclear apocalypse at least a couple of time. But patriotic providers of the weapons of war made lots of money on it, so the nostalgia for a New Cold War is understandable. See, for instance, David Galbreath's review, Putin's Russia and the 'New Cold War': Interpreting Myth and Reality Europe-Asia Studies 60:9 Nov 2008. Note: In 2008, rising world oil prices were providing a substantial boost to petrostates including Russia. And this was years before the events that culminated in Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Now we're on to a New Cold War with China. Since Russia and China have a generally good relationship at the moment, it can't be too long before enthusiasts are talking about the new "Sino-Soviet bloc", right?

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

"Quemoy and Matsu" Watch: When will the People's Republic of China invade Taiwan? Tomorrow? Next week? (Wait, what??!!)

Lord knows I wouldn't want to contribute in the tiniest way to some war contractor missing out on a few dollars of additional profit.

But the current hype over China invading Taiwan really needs to be taken with not just a bit of skepticism, but large quantities of it.

The saga of Quemoy and Matsu

This talk this year has reminded me of the controversy over "Quemoy and Matsu," islands in the Taiwan Strait that the People's Republic of China contested with the Taiwanese government in the 1950s. Mao Zedong's government did take moves in 1958 to test the position of the US. Donald Zagoria describes that action in The Sino-Soviet Conflict, 1956-1961 (1962):
Several elements contributed to the Chinese Communist decision to launch a venture in the Taiwan Strait in August of 1958. First, the West was preoccupied with the Middle East crisis [aka, the Lebanon crisis], a fact which was probably central in the timing of the venture. Second, the Chinese believed that they had an unbeatable hand. The evidence strongly suggests they never intended to launch a frontal assault on any of the offshore islands, but believed that, by interdiction, they could force the Quemoy garrison to surrender - a surrender which, in time, would lead to the automatic collapse of the other offshore islands. The Chinese seemed to base their calculations on a judgment widely held in the West: that once air and sea interdiction became effective the offshore islands could not be supplied, unless Nationalist and American forces were prepared to bomb the coastal provinces on the Chinese mainland. [my emphasis]
In that 1962 analysis, Zagoria goes through the various factors that seemed to affect China's decision to engage in the provocation, including, "Mao probably believed sincerely that the West needed to be given a sobering lesson in brinkmanship in return for its intervention in the Middle East."

The Chinese action was also "a calculated Chinese Communist probe of U.S. intentions." The idea was to interdict supplies going to Quemoy and the Matsu island chain and get an indication of how far the US and its allies would go to block a takeover of the islands, which in themselves had negligible strategic value to the US.

The plan didn't work. The People's Republic was unable to establish and effective blockade. Since "it did become feasible to supply the offshore islands without bombing the Chinese mainland," the West didn't even have to take further major military measures. And Zagoria adds:
Most analysts now seem agreed that the Chinese Communists never intended to invade the offshore islands. The artillery shelling began immediately before the typhoon season, when amphibious operations would have been precarious. The amphibious lift necessary for an invasion was never brought into the coastal areas. Communist air capability was used with great restraint throughout the crisis. Quemoy, for example, was not bombed by aircraft. In sum, the whole venture seemed to be a classic example of brinkmanship. [my emphasis]
This kind of mutual testing and jockeying is routine among adversary powers. They can, of course, get out of hand if one or both sides are making serious miscalculations.

"Quemoy and Matsu" was one of the hot topics debated in the 1960 Presidential race, with John Kennedy warning about the dangerous weakness the Eisenhower-Nixon administration had been showing on the issue. (Although it was a very murky issue; JFK praised Eisenhower for seeking to persuade Taiwan to abandon the islands because of their lack of strategic significance and criticized Nixon for not supporting that position.) The phrase has since become a synonym for a wildly overblown problem. But in 1958-1960, those islands that most Americans couldn't have located on an unlabeled map if their lives depended on it were discussed as though the fate of the world hung on whether the Taiwanese government or the mainline Chinese government controlled them.

Warmongering like it's 1958

Fred Kaplan gives some valuable background for current gloom-and-doom warnings that China is itching to invade Taiwan at any moment in Will China Really Invade Taiwan? Slate 11/09/2021. An important moment in the current hype was this, "In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the outgoing commander of U.S. military forces in the Pacific, told a Senate panel that China posed a 'manifest' threat of invading Taiwan 'in the next six years.'" Kaplan notes:
Davidson did not clear his March testimony with the secretary of defense (something that officers are supposed to do, especially if they’re about to make provocative statements). Nor did his warning of a Chinese invasion “in the next six years” reflect any estimate by the U.S. intelligence community.
With a relative weak peace movement and a pitifully bipartisan attitude of deference to the Pentagon at the moment, such claims easily become part of the conventional wisdom of the moment.

But Kaplan, for one, isn't willing to leave it there_
At the same time, a debate has erupted among more scholarly analysts over whether China’s Communist leaders really want to invade Taiwan - and, if they do, whether the Chinese military is capable of doing so now or in the near future. With few exceptions, the pessimists tend to be military officers, who measure the balance of power by which side has more or less of what sorts of weapons systems, while the less-panicked tend to be experts on China’s history and politics who view the statistics in a broader context.

.... In fact, the Pentagon’s latest report on China’s military power - while citing accelerating, and worrisome, trends in the production of Chinese ships, missiles, and nuclear weapons - downplays concerns about China’s ability or desire to mount and sustain an invasion of Taiwan. [my emphasis]
One final comment: Scare stories around China-Taiwan have pointed to more incidents of Chinese incursion into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Our major media are often too lazy to explain that ADIZ is not the same as national airspace. National airspace is counted as part of a country's ADIZ. But there is a broader category of "offshorte ADIZ," which 17 nations currently employ, including Taiwan and the People's Republic. This category of ADIZs "usually do not amount to sovereignty claims over the open airspace outside national airspace or involve threat or use of force." (Jinyuan Su, Is the Establishment of Air Defence Identification Zones Outside National Airspace in Accordance with International Law? European Journal of International Law 11/18/2021)

So it's worth paying attention in reports of these incidents to ask whether they involve clear incursions in sovereign airspace. It's a real distinction and an important one:
The ADIZ extends hundreds of kilometers from Taiwan's coast and even includes parts of mainland China. It is much larger than Taiwan's sovereign air space, which only extends 12 nautical miles from the coast.

The ADIZ is airspace designated for national security purposes but is not delineated in international treaties. Taiwanese authorities reserve the right to order aircraft entering the ADIZ to identify themselves and their purpose. (Taiwan says 16 Chinese warplanes enter air defense zone Deutsche Welle 07.11.2021)
Other sources:

Friday, July 2, 2021

The Chinese Communist Party and the Guomintang in the 1920s

Steve Smith has an article on the early history of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which celebrates the 100th anniversary of its founding with lots of official fanfare this year, on the democratic-socialist website Jacobin, 100 Years of the Chinese Communist Party 07/01/2021. Smith recounts the course of the CCP from its founding in 1921 to 1927.

It gives a helpful summary of the cooperation and competition during that period in the "united front" of the Communist Party (CCP) and the Guomintang (GMT) headed by Chiang Kai-shek (also written as Kuomintang, KMT). It was complicated and often ugly. In the end, of course, the CCP took power in most of China by defeating the GMT, which was left with its stronghold in Taiwan.

He also describes how Soviet policy via the Comintern (Communist International) even in the 1920s involved a mutual influence between the GMT-CCP politics in China and internal Soviet politics.

CNN provides this historical timeline from 1921-2021, 100 years of the Chinese Communist Party by Ben Westcott 07/01/2021. Critical reading is always in order with CNN as well as Jacobin. And all other sources, for that matter.

For stodgily respectable historical accounts to double mainstream press accounts, Britannica Online provides a decent quick check. (Critical reading still applies!)

See also: Helen Davidson, Xi Jinping warns China won’t be bullied in speech marking 100-year anniversary of CCP Guardian 07/01/2021.

Thursday, July 1, 2021

Jamie Galbraith on the US escaping "from the deadweight of mainstream economic thought" (hopefully!)

In the previous post, I quoted economist James Galbraith on how much China is embedded in the world economy. Since I don't quote him nearly enough on this blog, I thought I would add another reference here.

This is from an article of a year and a half ago, a few weeks before the world weren't yet terribly worried about the news reports of a new strain of coronavirus causing deaths in Wuhan, China: The Dismal Forecasts of the Dismal Scientists The American Prospect 01/10/2021. The economic expansion in the US and Europe was becoming old and feeble by historical standards. And Galbraith was reporting on how mainstream economist were making dreary predictions at a conference he mentions here. One of the main motivations of their predictions, he wrote, was "the natural human desire not to be embarrassed—yet again—by failing to have warned that things may go bad."

The COVID-19 shutdowns obviously depressed economic activity all over the world. Although it's important to note that the official dating of the current recession from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dates the start of it to February 2020. The mass lockdowns in the US didn't begin until mid-March.

One of the fretting economists Galbraith mentions is "an obscure young Finn, Tuomas Malinen, should however be considered for a prizewinning doomsday scenario." The latter characterization is an ironic one, as he proceeds to explain:
Malinen has a free-market streak, and his main scenario leans toward an Andrew Mellon–style mass liquidation, followed by recovery of the survivors. He would prefer this, for all the carnage, including physical death and destruction, to a “Green-Left fascism, suppressing both individual rights and unpopular economic activities.” Even if it were true that “Nature could be saved ... but at the expense of humanity reverting to slavery and oppression.”
To which Galbraith remarks drily, "This seems a bit over the top."

But he continues in a comment that includes an important observation about China's economic system:
Europe may well be at extreme risk as Malinen fears; the experience of Greece in the financial crisis shows that the financial and political leadership of the European Union is ruthlessly self-protective and predatory; there is no accountability for the suffering caused or recourse for the victims. China is, however, different. The government may be authoritarian but it responds quickly—and massively—to crisis because otherwise it would not survive. Financial analysts have a bit of a blind spot with respect to China; many see that country’s banking sector through Western eyes. In reality, China’s banks are backed by the government and protected by capital controls, making them essentially inseparable from the Chinese state. (my emphasis)
And he expresses a hope that the Biden-Harris Administration has intially fulfilled, in part, if still in relatively small part:
And in the next crisis, the United States may finally be moved to free itself from the deadweight of mainstream economic thought, to retire a worn-out generation of policy advisers, and to move on with the great social, economic, and environmental project known as the Green New Deal. There is a history of radical experiment and popular mobilization in this country, from which democracy emerged stronger, not weaker, than it ever was before. And for many Americans, to escape from the debt trap and from domination by bankers and billionaires into a world of work and public purpose would be the very opposite of slavery and oppression. A better word would be liberation, along with a new freedom, and a new hope. (my emphasis)

Wednesday, June 30, 2021

100th Anniversary of the Founding of the Chinese Communist Party

The Chinese Communist Party is celebrating the 100-year anniversary of its founding.

With the "new cold war" rhetoric of recent years, I notice the Republicans seem to be more often using their old favorite description, "Communist China." I haven't noticed any retro reference to "the Chicoms" lately, but they will probably start popping up soon.

John Kenneth Galbraith wrote of the old Cold War (The Culture of Contentment, 1992):
The natural focus of concern was the Soviet Union and its once seemingly stalwart satellites in Eastern Europe. Fear of the not inconsiderable competence of the Soviets in military technology and production provided the main pillar of support for American military spending. However, the alarm was geographically comprehensive. It supported expenditure and military action against such improbable threats as those from Angola, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Grenada, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Laos, Cambodia and, massively, tragically and at great cost, from Vietnam. From being considered a source of fear and concern, only Communist China was, from the early 1970s on, exempt. Turning against the Soviet Union and forgiven for its earlier role in Korea and Vietnam, it became an honorary bastion of democracy and free enterprise, which, later repressive actions notwithstanding, it rather substantially remains. [my emphasis]
I quote that as a reminder of how confusing it can be to describe the Chinese system. American and European commentators long found it convenient to describe China in the honorary-capitalist terms to which Galbraith alluded. On the right where characters like Jordan Peterson get a respectable hearing, it was convenient to attribute the drastic reduction in global extreme poverty in recent decades to the healthy miracle of capitalism. Fitting the large number of people in China benefiting from that change is a bit awkward for the capitalist-miracle narrative.

China, along with Cambodia, Cuba, Laos, North Korea, and Vietnam all considered themselves Communist countries today. But what kind of currently-existing system should be legitimately considered socialist (and/or Communist) has been a source of contention pretty much since the moment the Bolsheviks seized power in Russia in 1917. When Yugoslavia split from the Soviet Union in foreign affairs and also took a different approach to constructing a Communist system, the USSR resorted to denouncing it as a fascist country. Later China and Russia went through phases of improving relations with Yugoslavia and distancing themselves from it, all the while criticizing the other's Yugoslavia policy.

During the 1960s and 1970s, the USSR and China conducted a very public dispute - whose implications the American foreign policy establishment was remarkably slow in recognizing - which included not only a dispute over the correct approach to socialist revolution and transformation in non-socialist countries but also intense disputes over when the other was practicing true socialism. China for years polemicized against the USSR as having "restored capitalism" as a result of the post-Stalin economic reforms it undertook.

That dispute also had domestic implications in China, because in the post-Mao era, China also adopted some changes that had similarities to the post-Stalin reforms in the USSR, i.e., decentralizing planning and a greater reliance on material incentives for workers and managers. Even during Mao's rule from 1949 until his death in 1976, his economic policies swung greatly from a Stalinist economic model to experiments like the Great Leap Forward (1958-1960) and the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976), with alternations back to an approach more similar to the Soviet one. The former failed badly in its own terms, and seems to be generally regarded as a badly-conceived experiment. The Cultural Revolution had a more overtly political emphasis, but it too had serious effect on inhibiting economic growth. Neither event seems to be held in high esteem by the current Chinese leadership.

It seems obvious to me that China's current model is not simply a variant of neoliberal capitalism. It still relies on government-driven economic planning and measures like capital controls that are heresy to the neoliberal gospel. At the same time, China is heavily integrated economically with capitalist economies including those of the EU and especially the US. As John Kenneth's son Jamie Galbraith recently wrote (James Galbraith: China and Supply Chains – The White House Review’s Focus on US Dependence Naked Capitalism 06/25/2021). Posted on June 25, 2021 by Yves Smith):
To be sure, the Chinese still, in many important advanced areas, draw from and depend on the United States. Certainly, the US can slow the inroads of Chinese firms in some cases, and certainly the US can foster ... its own advantages in new sectors by maintaining and expanding its research and development base. Certainly, there are many things to be done in the United States to meet urgent environmental, public health, and critical social goals.

But the US position, as an economy with only one-fourth the population, equally now depends on the Chinese market, and on downstream Chinese firms supplying applications to the world. While precautions against natural disasters and pandemics can be taken – up to a point – the central unstated message of this 100-day Review [by the Biden-Harris Administration] is that the greatest risk to the supply chain, in each of the four areas, is disruption of normal trade relations with China. In short, as an objective economic matter, we learn here, the United States has an overwhelming interest in peace. [my emphasis]
Western critics mock China's building program of erecting urban areas for which they are not yet people to settle there. Whether that is wasteful "gubment planning" or forward-thinking preparation for expected economic and population growth is a matter of perspective, which time will presumably clarify.

Apart from the large of polemics over China's economic policies, China's government does clearly describe itself as socialist in its economic system and Communist in its political system. And the celebration around the 100 anniversary of the Part reflect that.

Macadrean Vidal Liy reports for the conservative-leaning Spanish El País (El Partido Comunista de China cumple 100 años reescribiendo la historia 30.06.2021):

“Con el tiempo, a los que no vivimos aquello se nos olvidan las privaciones y sacrificios que vivieron esos héroes. Al venir a verlo, los recordamos y nos sentimos inspirados para el futuro”, recita de corrido una estudiante de la Universidad Politécnica de Xian, que ha venido a Yanan en viaje de fin de curso con su clase. Otros visitantes repiten declaraciones similares."

Que sean tan parecidas no es casualidad. Es el mensaje que el Partido quiere transmitir. Desde febrero, el presidente chino, Xi Jinping, ha lanzado una campaña de dimensiones colosales, la mayor desde los tiempos de Mao, para que los 91 millones de militantes del PCCh estudien la historia oficial de la formación y para que saquen precisamente esas conclusiones. La consigna repetida una y otra vez en discursos y medios oficiales es “no olvidar nunca la intención original, recordar siempre la misión” de los primeros tiempos de la institución. ["Over time, those of us who do not experience that forget the deprivations and sacrifices that those heroes lived through. When we come to see them, we remember them and feel inspired for the future," recites a student from the Polytechnic University of Xian, who has come to Yanan [to the Museum of the Revolution] on an end-of-year trip with her class. Other visitors repeat similar statements."

That they are so similar is no coincidence. That is the message that the Party wants to convey. Since February, Chinese President Xi Jinping has launched a campaign of colossal dimensions, the largest since Mao's time, for the CCP's [Chinese Communist Party’s] 91 million militants to study the official history of the formation and to draw precisely those conclusions. The slogan repeated over and over again in speeches and official media is "never forget the original intention, always remember the mission" of the early days of the institution.] (my translation)
In other words, they are highlighting both the role of the Communist Party and the national-liberation aspect of the revolution in this narrative the article discusses.
En la versión recogida este año en el libro oficial Breve Historia del Partido Comunista de China, han desaparecido las antiguas críticas al Gran Timonel por el caos, las purgas y las muertes de la Revolución Cultural. En su lugar, aquella campaña pasa a ser elogiada como una medida anticorrupción -precisamente, la marca de la casa del mandato de Xi, que se ha deshecho de importantes enemigos políticos mediante una amplia operación contra la venalidad de los funcionarios públicos-. Las turbulencias de aquella era se achacan a una “insuficiente puesta en práctica de su ideología correcta”. Y desaparece la apostilla de “esta amarga lección histórica no debe olvidarse” en el apartado que describe el Gran Salto Adelante.

La nueva Breve Historia oficial dedica también a Xi un enorme protagonismo. Una cuarta parte de sus páginas se dedican a examinar y loar su mandato como el de un líder carismático que antepone siempre los intereses de la población. Solo su gestión de la pandemia de la covid-19 llena cinco de las 531 páginas del volumen.

[In the version collected this year in the official book Brief History of the Communist Party of China, the old criticisms of the Great Helmsman [Mao] for the chaos, purges and deaths of the Cultural Revolution have disappeared. Instead, that campaign is now hailed as an anti-corruption measure – precisely the trademark of the house of Xi's mandate, which has rid itself of major political enemies through a broad operation against the venality of public officials. The turbulence of that era is blamed on an "insufficient implementation of its correct ideology." And the apostille of "this bitter historical lesson must not be forgotten" disappears in the section that describes the Great Leap Forward.

The new official Brief History also makes Xi a huge protagonist. A quarter of its pages are devoted to examining and praising his mandate as that of a charismatic leader who always puts the interests of the people first. His handling of the covid-19 pandemic alone fills five of the volume's 531 pages.]
By the way, China and Russia are getting along pretty well right now. Russia, China declare friendship treaty extension, hail ties PBS Newshour 06/28/2021:
Putin and Xi have developed strong personal ties to bolster a “strategic partnership” between the two former Communist rivals as they vie with the West for influence and face soaring tensions in relations with the U.S. and its allies. While Moscow and Beijing in the past rejected the possibility of forging a military alliance, Putin said last fall that such a prospect can’t be ruled out entirely.

During Monday’s call, Putin congratulated Xi on the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China celebrated Thursday, saying that China is marking it with “new achievements in the country’s social-economic development and on the international stage” and recalling Soviet support for the Chinese communists.

Moscow marked the CPC’s centennial by sharing historic documents on Soviet-Chinese links with Beijing.
Deutsche Welle News gives a background report from just before the official anniversary celebration scheduled for July 1, China gears up for the Communist Party's 100th birthday 06/29/2021:



See also: Michael Standaert, As China’s Communist Party turns 100, economic challenges loom Aljazeera 28.06.2021

Saturday, September 5, 2020

Ideological conflict and US-China Relations

Michael McFaul has a worthwhile article cautioning against the US taking a new-cold-war policy in its relations with China that emphasizes ideological conflict in Xi Jinping Is Not Stalin: How a Lazy Historical Analogy Derailed Washington’s China Strategy Foreign Affairs 08/10/2020(registration required).

The Stalin reference in the title has to do with the comparison of the world situation during the decade after the Second World War and today. Here he seems to be making a straight-up defense of Truman's Cold War policy based on the "secret policy paper known as NSC-68," although he calls the language in the now-(in)famous NSC-68 "sound eerily like" speeches on China by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien that McFaul is criticizing sharply.

McFaul does criticize other aspects of Cold War view taken by US administrations:
But the United States also at times overreacted and oversimplified, seeing every leftist and national liberation movement as an enemy to be defeated. That mindset contributed to some of the worst American excesses during the Cold War, including McCarthyism, the fictitious “missile gap,” the Vietnam War, and support for brutal right-wing dictatorships, including even apartheid in South Africa.
He also notes in terms that cannot be said to be an unquestioning praise for US Cold War policies:
And the Cold War was not cold; the scholars David Holloway and Stephen Stedman estimate that 20 million people died between 1945 and 1989 in 130 wars, many of them fueled by superpower rivalry. Mistaking Xi for a new Stalin [or a NSC-68 perception of "Stalin"!] could lead the United States to repeat those mistakes.

The Cold War lasted 40 years. For most of that period, victory was uncertain. For Washington to be successful in what may be an even longer contest, it must diagnose the severity of the threat precisely and calibrate efforts to contain and deter Beijing accordingly. False analogies from the Cold War hurt both of these efforts. Washington shouldn’t spend trillions on nuclear arms, missiles, and space weapons. It shouldn’t fight proxy wars. And most important, it shouldn’t stumble into a direct confrontation with China. U.S. foreign-policy makers must resist the impulse to check every Chinese move around the world, like Truman believed he had to do with Stalin. This line of thinking compelled U.S. Cold War strategists to double and triple down on the tragic, unnecessary war in Vietnam. Today, Americans know that they did not need to contain communism in Vietnam to defeat the Soviets. (And by the way, Eastern Europeans—Poles, Russians, Ukrainians, and many others—played the central role in defeating Soviet communism and ending the Cold War, not Americans.) Threat assessments, in other words, should never go unquestioned. Are freedom and democracy really under worldwide assault if Laos or Rwanda imports Chinese-made Internet equipment? Or if the Chinese develop Belt and Road Initiative projects in Ghana or Italy? Should every Chinese citizen in the United States be treated as a spy? By trying to contain the Chinese everywhere, Washington may undermine containment in areas where its vital national security interests are actually at stake. [my emphasis]
Interestingly enough, another Foreign Affairs piece, The Ideology Delusion: America’s Competition With China Is Not About Doctrine by Elbridge Colby and Robert Kaplan 09/04/2020, also cautions about using ideological rivalry as the organizing principle for US China policy.

I've been not-a-fan of Robert Kaplan's for a while. See my posts: Over the cliff with the neocons one more time? 09/03/2007; Neocon bigwig Robert Kagan Kaplan on the virtues of war and chaos 01/03/2015; Robert Kaplan promotes war and the alleged virtues of imperialism 06/04/2015.

Elbridge Colby served as deputy assistant secretary of defense in 2017-18 during the Trump Administration. He is a principal at a shady group called the Marathon Institute, which Eli Clifton profiled in Pundits with undisclosed funding from arms manufacturers urge ‘stronger force posture’ to counter China Responsible Statecraft 05/14/2020. Clifton reports:
And from 2014 to 2017 and 2018 to 2019 Colby worked at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) which counts Northrop Grumman as one of its biggest donors (contributing more than $500,000 between October 1, 2018 to September 30, 2019) as well as contributions from Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Bell Helicopter, BAE Systems, General Dynamics, Boeing and DynCorp.
Kaplan is also associated with CNAS, whose own list of 2018-19 donors is available online.

Kaplan and Butcher's-Bill Kristol were the founders of the now-defunct Project for New American Century (PNAC). which was also focused on promoting China as a military threat to the US. But wrecked their brand name with their advocacy of the Iraq War which dramatized their catastrophically bad judgment in foreign affairs.

The Center for a New American Security, founded in 2007, features luminaries from the Obama Administration, providing a somewhat more bipartisan cast than we normally associate with the old PNAC. A couple of recent special reports from CNAS involved their preferred China policy, Rising to the China Challenge: Renewing American Competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific 01/28/2020 and Total Competition: China’s Challenge in the South China Sea 01/08/2020.

The Foreign Affairs article by Elbridge and Kaplan is fairly vague about their view of the threat they see China representing to the United States, such as:
China very likely seeks to form a regional trade area favorable to its economy—a modern-day analog to the tribute system that placed China at the heart of East Asia from the fourteenth to the nineteenth century. In a world now defined by rising barriers to trade, China would gain enormous advantage in shaping a large market area that conforms to its standards and benefits its workers and companies. Its drive for hegemony also has a strategic purpose. China has long felt fenced in by U.S. allies and by other rivals. Now it intends to compel neighboring states to take their security cues from Beijing. And after a “century of humiliation,” China is eager to stand tall, asserting its power in Asia and beyond. [my emphasis]
But they do argue against a focus on ideological differences between China and the US:
Even beyond Congress, though, there is wide agreement forming across the political spectrum about why China poses a threat to the United States. For many, it is above all because China is an oppressive one-party state, governed by a Marxist-Leninist cadre, whose leader, Xi Jinping, has amassed more personal power than anyone in Beijing since Mao Zedong. Both the Trump administration and Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden have lambasted China for its execrable human rights record, which includes, among other brutalities, putting a million Uighur Muslims in concentration camps. The leading Democratic Party-aligned foreign policy thinkers Kurt Campbell and Jake Sullivan wrote in these pages last year: “China may ultimately present a stronger ideological challenge than the Soviet Union did. . . . China’s rise to superpower status will exert a pull toward autocracy. China’s fusion of authoritarian capitalism and digital surveillance may prove more durable and attractive than Marxism.”

The criticisms of China are true. The United States is indeed in an exceptionally serious competition with China that requires it to take a hard line on many fronts. And Washington should never shy away from its unabashed embrace of republican government and respect for human dignity. But ideology does not lie at the root of the matter between the United States and China—even if elements in China’s Marxist-Leninist elite think it does. The very scale of China’s economy, population, and landmass and its consequent power would cause profound concern for U.S. policymakers even if the country were a democracy. Seeing this competition as primarily ideological will misconstrue its nature—with potentially catastrophic results.
That particular line of argument from China hawks is worth watching. I'm a bit suspicious of the Elbridge-Kaplan argument. The donors to organizations like CNAS (and probably the Marathon Institute) are probably willing to go with ideological or non-ideological arguments as long as the sell more weapons and military services.

Tuesday, August 4, 2020

An ambiguous warning on US-China relations

Trying to understand what's actually being said in foreign policy position papers can be a lot like reading tea leaves, or maybe necromancy.

William Blake's depiction of the Witch of Endor conjuring the spirit of the prophet Samuel
The stereotypically establishment foreign policy association, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), recently published a paper by Robert Blackwill and Thomas Wright, The End of World Order and American Foreign Policy (Council Special Report #86, May 2020). Blackwill was a deputy national security adviser in the Cheney-Bush Administration. wright directs the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institute. This paper includes a disclaimer noting that CFR "takes no institutional positions on policy issues," so the paper is not an official CFR position.

This paper is partially reminiscent of the infamous Project for a New American Century (PNAC), in that it centers on countering China. That in itself isn't strange, of course, because China is clearly the rising power in the world and either already has or is likely to soon have the world's largest economy. So of course other countries have o seek ways to accommodate or otherwise adjust to China's increasing international power. That much is a banal observation in 2020.

As CFR's President Richard Haass put it in his book, A World in Disarray (2017),
No relationship [in the post-Second World War period] has been more important than the one between the United States, the dominant power of the era, and China, the country widely seen as posing the biggest challenge to American prin1acy. lt is also true that no relationship was likely to experience more difficulties. Much of history is the result of friction leading to conflict between existing and rising powers, reflecting the difficulty in peacefully accommodating the changing power balance and relationship between the two. ...

... the relationship between the two remained surprisingly good in the aftermath of the Cold War. Growing economic ties filled much of the space that hadl been taken up by shared concern about the Soviet Union. Two-way merchandise trade alone grew from $20 billion in 1990 to nearly $600 billion twenty-five years later.2 Investment likewise grew from negligible to truly substantial amounts. Meanwhile, diplomatic interaction both increased ancl expanded as top-level summits came to be supplemented by frequent meetings involving both governments' bureaucracies discussing the full range of bilateral, regional, and increasingly global issues.

But the congruence was broader. The underlying premise of China's national security following the chaos of Mao's Cultural Revolution was that the country needed several decades of economic development if it was to be stable and secure, that the rate of clevelopment needed to be rapid, and that such growth could take place only amid regional stability and decent relations with the world's largest and most innovative economy. All of this provided a rationale from China's perspective for behaving with restraint and maintaining good relations with the United States so that trade would grow and technology transfers would be forthcoming. [my emphasis]
This background is a reminder that we all need to be cautious of hair-on-fire representations of US-Chinese relations, i.e., the presentation of China as a newly-emerged bogeyman. It's an evolving relationship, and US policy makers have been very aware of China's development over the last several decades and have generally welcomed it.

Haass depicted the state uf US-China relationship as of 2016-17 as follows:
Overall, Sino-American relations a quarter of a century after the end of the Cold War are difficult to describe or categorize. In many ways, the two are still searching for a rationale to take the place of the anti-Sovietism that informed their relationship prior to 1989. The Chinese speak of a new model of a major-country relationship, but the two governments have not for the most part been able to fill in the blanks and move past generalities. Adding to the uncertainty is the vulnerability of the relationship to a crisis growing out of competing claims in the South China Sea, Sino-Japanese tensions, or Taiwan.

Still, for all this, the durability of the Sino-American relationship is striking, something worth commenting on given the changing strategic context and power balance between the two countries as China has grown in both absolute and relative terms. The relationship has clone fairly well under Democrats and Republicans alike and under a number of Chinese leaders. Again, history would have predicted far more friction, and while it is still possible that something approximating a new cold war could materialize, it is by no means inevitable. [my emphasis]
Blackwell and Wright present a diagnosis of US-China relations in 2020 that has much more of a new-cold-war vibe:
On the face of it, the answer would seem obvious: the United States should try to reconstitute a shared strategic understanding between the major powers based on these national interests—a classic world order bargain, if you will. But such a pathway is problematic. Although it may seem strategically sensible and prudent to many observers, for others the gap between the United States and China is too large to bridge, and a compromise could undermine Washington’s regional alliances. Moreover, there is for the foreseeable future no appetite in Washington on either side of the aisle, or in Beijing, for such a comprehensive effort. The U.S. executive branch and Congress are focused on drawing up bills of indictment against China (many justified), with no prescriptive suggestion except for public coercion that diplomacy, difficult as it may be, could ease the bilateral tension. Opinion polls show that the American people favor alliances, free trade, and a foreign policy that includes support for human rights, democracy, and the rule of law.) With U.S. treatment of China a major issue in the 2020 presidential campaign, it is difficult to imagine a national consensus on any dramatic change of course that accommodates to some degree China’s preferences regarding world order.

For its part, China seeks to comprehensively undermine U.S. alliances and to eventually replace the United States as both the most important power in Asia and the world’s technological leader. Beijing is making progress in that long-term effort, as its coercive power grows and Washington falters internationally. Whatever the objective reality, Beijing’s behavior suggests it could well believe it is playing a winning hand.

In any case, both nations at present are fully committed to their core convictions of how best to conduct their societies and governance, promote their national interests, and organize the international system. It is difficult to imagine either side offering major compromises on any of these fundamentals anytime soon. [my emphasis]
They present a general framing that I find dubious. They describe a post-Second World War world order that was rules-based and founded on generally accepted principles of the international order, led by an enlightened and generally benevolent United States. They see China and Russia as making "major departures from the shared understandings of the 1990s". As a result, "the return of great power rivalry" has "shattered hopes in that multilateral order." (my italics)
China and Russia in particular defend a Westphalian and nineteenth-century model of order organized around balance of power, national sovereignty, and spheres of influence. They oppose the U.S. model of humanitarian intervention, democracy promotion, strengthened alliances, and opposition to spheres of influence. Meanwhile, the United States distances itself from its own world order traditions. [my emphasis]
Everyone, including especially American citizens, have good reason to have a critical view of what that "model of humanitarian intervention" looked like. Haass observes:
Like most other countries, China opposed the U.S. decision to attack Iraq in 2003, believing it was unwarranted. China went along with what it thought was a limited humanitarian intervention in Libya in 2011, but, like Russia, it was critical when the effort expanded into one of regime change. China also was more supportive than not of sanctions to curb lran's nuclear ambitions and, as will be discussed in greater detail below, committed itself to take steps to reduce its own carbon emissions starting in 2030. [my emphasis]
It's also hard to guess what they particularly have in mind with their very general recommendations, which reads like boiler-plate diplomatic vagueness: more competent governance in the US (duh!), wield diplomatic leverage more effectively, improve relations with Canada and Mexico, try to improve relations with the EU and NATO allies, and so on.

Their paper is so full of such boilerplate that it's hard to judge what they are actually advocating. Again, I'm very wary of their description of the post-1945 world order collapsing into a "Westphalian" world due to Russia and China's bad actions and goals. We remember the Cold War understandably as primarily a contest between the US and the Soviet Union. But we also had a cold war - which became a hot war in Korea - against China. And because of dogmatic, ill-informed anti-Communist assumption, along with the purges of many diplomats with substantial expertise in the Far East during the McCarthy period, the fear of China contributed to some very dubious foreign policy decisions. A supposedly expansionist China was one of the main justifications for the Vietnam War, which was an even worse disaster for the US than the Iraq War. A 21st century rerun is not something I want to see.

But there are parts of the Blackwill-Wright paper I find attractive:
The COVID-19 crisis ought to mark the end of the post-9/11 era. The United States has overly invested in the greater Middle East, and Washington should stop trying to fix the most dysfunctional and self-destructive region on earth. It is time to withdraw U.S. combat troops from Afghanistan in the next year without requiring agreement with the Taliban; recognize that the possibility of a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine issue is more remote by the day; end support for the Saudi war in Yemen; revive and update the JCPOA to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons; be clear that, although the United States hopes Iran becomes a democracy, that is a decision for the Iranian people, and the United States should not be actively trying to bring this about; and downgrade U.S. relations with its Arab partners, to focus on matters of mutual interest rather than offering general support for their domestic and international objectives. While continuing its enduring commitment to Israel’s safety and security, the United States should redirect its resources from the Middle East to matters that are far more relevant to its national interests today and in the future. [my emphasis]
That kind of foreign policy pragmatism makes sense!

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Maggie Thatcher and Hong Kong

Doug Bandow look back at the British deal made by Margaret Thatcher with China on the terms for the handover of Hong Kong in 1997. "Tragic though this outcome is, the worsening dictatorship cannot be blamed on Thatcher. And there was little she could have done to have saved China or Hong Kong. Moreover, there is good news: history rarely offers permanent verdicts. We have no idea what will follow Xi," he writes. (Negotiating Hong Kong: playing chicken with millions of lives Responsible Statecraft 07/15/2020)

He describes the options that the UK faced if it had tried to set up Hong Kong as a permanent colony - which would have been a real anachronism in the world of 1997! - or to try to support it as an independent country.

Noting that the recent developments produced what looks like an "ugly reality", he describes the practical limitations in the throwback colonial option, but these would also apply to an independence option guaranteed by Britain:
Beijing would have responded angrily but likely avoided war. In 1997, when the lease formally expired, China’s GDP was little more than half of the UK’s and about a tenth of America’s. Beijing had not fared well militarily when seeking to teach Vietnam “a lesson” in 1979. Although the PRC was a nuclear power, so were London and Washington, which would have been on Thatcher’s speed dial to back up the British.

More important, the PRC was only beginning its economic Long March, reforming its economy and entering foreign markets. Conflict would have interrupted that process, with long-term negative impacts. The pragmatic Deng likely would have played the long game, avoiding a direct confrontation until he or his successor was sure of winning.

In the meantime, however, Hong Kong would have become an increasing burden on the United Kingdom, which probably would have been locked out of the newly expanding Chinese market. The right mix of verbal threats and military deployments by Beijing would have forced the UK to maintain a battle-ready garrison with sufficient back-up — perhaps an aircraft carrier permanently berthed in the harbor — just in case. Doing so would be difficult and expensive for London.

Beijing could have isolated the colony and systematically harassed British rule. The result would not just have inconvenienced residents and burdened London. Many foreign companies would have avoided settling in Hong Kong; some established firms would have left for safer and more hospitable havens elsewhere, such as Singapore. [my emphasis]
After Britain's experience with the massive decolonization following the Second World War, it's not surprising that they decided not to rerun the experience with Hong Kong.

With Trump relying on anti-China agitation for his reelection campaign, it's worth paying attention to various kinds of chicanery on the government's part in that regard. The very creepy Attorney General William Barr is threatening businesspeople over "appeasement" of China, threatening prosecutions for espionage. The Financial Times reports (Kadhim Shubber, Barr warns against corporate America's China 'appeasement' 07/16/2020):
Campaign aides believe Mr Trump can regain lost ground against Democratic rival Joe Biden by casting himself as tough on China, part of an effort to draw a contrast on the subject with the policies of the Obama administration, where Mr Biden served as vice-president.

Mr Barr took particular aim at large US technology companies and Hollywood, insisting that business leaders who pander to Beijing's demands would only reap short-term rewards.
Attorney General Barr delivers remarks on China policy in Grand Rapids, Michigan PBS Newshour 07/16/2020:


Thursday, May 7, 2020

Biden on Foreign Policy (2 of 3): China

I should preface this whole post by saying, yes, we can certainly expect that a conservative Democratic Joe Biden Administration will pursue a more responsible foreign policy in general than the Trump Administration. And that's very important. It's also a perfectly reasonable claim for Biden's current Make American Boring Again campaign to make.

But I want to start here by referring to this article by Über-Realist Stephen Walt, Yesterday’s Cold War Shows How to Beat China Today Foreign Policy 07/29/2019.

In my love-hate relationship with "realist" foreign policy theory, I don't accept the implicit narrow-nationalist focus of the Realist outlook that views the world order as an unending set of evolving conflicts between self-interested nations. On the other hand, that's still largely how the world system works, because the slow process of establishing common international norms is still not at the point it needs to be to deal adequately with nuclear proliferation and climate change.

Walt, looking at the world system as it is, gets an awful lot of things right in his empirical understanding of international developments. And he sees war as inherently a bad thing to be avoided whenever possible. He also turns a jaded realist look not only on other countries but on the United States, as well. So he has no love for America Firster jingoism or even the bipartisan idolization of "American exceptionalism".

Joe Biden, on the other hand, in his Foreign Affairs essay, Why America Must Lead Again: Rescuing U.S. Foreign Policy After Trump, strikes the conventional bipartisan pose of standing up to threatening adversaries, of which he pictures China as the most significant. In seeing China's rise in economic and political power as displacing the Post-1989 "unipolar" dominance of the US, he's in agreement with the realists. But Biden takes a different tone:
  • Tech "companies must act to ensure that their tools and platforms are not empowering the surveillance state, gutting privacy, facilitating repression in China and elsewhere."
  • "To win the competition for the future against China or anyone else, the United States must sharpen its innovative edge and unite the economic might of democracies around the world to counter abusive economic practices and reduce inequality."
  • "There is no reason we should be falling behind China or anyone else when it comes to clean energy, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, high-speed rail, or the race to end cancer as we know it."
  • "The question is, Who writes the rules that govern trade? Who will makesure they protect workers, the environment, transparency, and middle-class wages? The United States, not China, should be leading that effort."
  • The US must insist "that China - the world's largest emitter of carbon - stop subsidizing coal exports and outsourcing pollution to other countries by financing billions of dollars' worth of dirty fossil fuel energy projects through its Belt and Road Initiative."
  • "As new technologies reshape our economy and society, we must ... avoid a race to the bottom, where the rules of the digital age are written by China and Russia."
  • The US is getting "heroin from Mexico and, more recently, fentanyl from China, which is much more lethal."
Here is how Biden frames his general approach to China:
China represents a special challenge. I have spent many hours with its leaders, and I understand what we are up against. China is playing the long game by extending its global reach, promoting its own political model, and investing in the technologies of the future. Meanwhile, Trump has designated imports from the United States' closest allies-from Canada to the European Union- as national security threats in order to impose damaging and reckless tariffs. By cutting us off from the economic clout of our partners, Trump has kneecapped our country's capacity to take on the real economic threat.

The United States does need to get tough with China. If China has its way, it will keep robbing the United States and American companies of their technology and intellectual property. It will also keep using subsidies to give its state-owned enterprises an unfair advantage- and a leg up on dominating the technologies and industries of the future. The most effective way to meet that challenge is to build a united front of U.S. allies and partners to confront China's abusive behaviors and human rights violations, even as we seek to cooperate with Beijing on issues where our interests converge, such as climate change, nonproliferation, and global health security. On its own, the United States represents about a quarter of global GDP. When we join together with fellow democracies, our strength more than doubles.

China can't afford to ignore more than half the global economy. That gives us substantial leverage to shape the rules of the road on everything from the environment to labor, trade, technology, and transparency, so they continue to reflect democratic interests and values. [my emphasis]
That distant, discordant sound you hear whenever American leaders brag about how they want policies that "continue to reflect democratic interests and values"? That is the sound of cynical laughter echoing from the Rio Grande to Tierra del Fuego.

And if his Yellow Peril video spots are a measure, "get tough with China" is the main message he wants to convey here. But the whole piece is an example of Establishment foreign-policy boilerplate. Which means it doesn't base itself around the points that Stephen Walt stresses about US China policy:

  • Lesson #1: Make sure you have the right allies.
  • Lesson #2: Investing in science, technology, and education pays off.
  • Lesson #3: Greater openness, transparency, and accountability gave the United States an important advantage [in competition with the USSR].
  • Lesson #4: Playing rope-a-dope (i.e., letting the Soviet Union squander resources in strategically marginal areas) was a smart strategy.
  • Lesson #5: Nice countries finish first.

On the last point, Walt writes:
The United States is not as virtuous as Americans like to pretend, but during the Cold War, it benefited from standing for freedom, human rights, and other popular political values. U.S. leaders also recognized that making progress on civil rights would be important in the context of the Cold War, as greater racial equality would make the country look better in the eyes of nonwhite societies around the world.

To be sure, the United States backed authoritarians when it thought it had to and sometimes acted with callous disregard for foreign populations. But on balance - and especially when compared to its Soviet rival - the United States was seen as standing for something more than just the naked exercise of power.

Equally important, U.S. leaders consistently treated their foreign counterparts with respect, even when they were privately angered by others’ actions or when they had to play hardball with them within the broader alliance context. French President Charles de Gaulle irritated several U.S. presidents on more than one occasion, but you rarely heard U.S. officials denouncing him in public. U.S. officials understood that denigrating or humiliating one’s partners would generate resentment and undermine Western unity, so they kept the mailed fist inside a velvet glove. Because the United States was so much stronger than others, it usually got its way. But its leaders were wise enough not to boast about it, lest this trigger resentment and impair cooperation. [my emphasis]

Thursday, February 6, 2020

The Power of Siberia (PoS) pipeline and China-Russia relations

Li-Chen Sim reports on an important new business and economic linkage between China and Russia (Will the New Power of Siberia Gas Pipeline Create a Windfall for Russia? Responsible Statecraft 02/04/2020):
Newly inaugurated on December 2, 2019, the Power of Siberia pipeline will lock-in China’s purchase from Russia of almost one trillion cubic meters of gas over the next 30 years. For sanctions-hit Russia, this will generate over $400 billion in gas revenue in total, up from less than $360 million in 2018, and broaden the scope of its cooperation with China.
It's called the Power of Siberia (PoS) pipeline.

The pipeline is a project of the Russian oil company Gazprom. in which the Russian state holds a majority ownership.

She describes this important project in the context of China's emerging status as the world's leading economic power:
Despite the close personal ties between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, relations between the two countries are highly asymmetrical. China leads Russia by a wide margin in economic terms. Comparatively, the prevailing narrative is of a Russia in long-term decline. In this regard, PoS may reduce the asymmetry by increasing China’s dependence on Russian gas from almost zero to one-sixth of China’s import requirements and 9.5 percent of its total gas consumption.

At these levels, however, China is hardly beholden to Russia since China has a well-diversified base of gas suppliers and supply routes. The advantage of PoS in mitigating the vulnerability of seaborne LNG cargoes is blunted by competing overland gas pipelines from Central Asia and to a smaller extent, Myanmar. Furthermore, the dedicated pipeline to China implies that Russia has, ironically, increased its dependence on Chinese gas demand. [my emphasis]
For Russia, it means diversification of its dependence on Europe for natural gas sales, which has been complicated by Western sactions on Russia over Ukraine and Russia's annexation of Crimea, as Euonews reports (Luke Hurst, Russia opens Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China 12/03/2019):
China is now Russia’s top export market, with the pipeline project expected to last for three decades, generating $400 billion for the Russian economy.

The move means Russia’s gas exports now stand on two legs — one being Europe, the other Asia — according to Francis Perrin, Senior Fellow at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS).

Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled energy company, intends to “remain the leading gas supplier to Europe for decades to come,” said Perrin, who specialises in energy issues.
Ariel Cohen explains of the PoS project (The Strategic Upside Behind Russia’s $55 Billion ‘Power Of Siberia’ Pipeline To China Forbes 12/06/2019):
Pressure from Western sanctions – brought on by Russia’s illegal 2014 annexation of Crimea – is accelerating the Kremlin’s pivot away from the European Union towards the energy hungry East.

The 1,800 mile pipeline is a hedge against a potentially shrinking market in Europe, where souring diplomatic relations and rapid penetration of renewables threatens the appetite for Russia’s oil and natural gas in the long-run.
He also puts the project in the context of the evolving relationship of Russia to the rising power of China:
The two leaders [Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping] are galvanized by what they consider an unhinged United States, and a belief that together they can create an alternative to the Western-led global order. The U.S. – China trade war, Western condemnation of China’s actions in Hong Kong, and continuing sanctions against Russia are reason enough for Putin and Xi to start their own axis.

Yet all is not rosy in this blossoming romance. China, whose economy is eight times larger than Russia’s, and is increasingly technologically more advanced, is the senior partner in the tandem. Russia is approaching its subordinate role with mixed feelings, on one hand realizing the power disparity, but on the other hopeful that it can benefit from closer ties to the world’s most dynamic economy. [my emphasis]
Aljazeera English has this report on the PoS project (The power of Siberia': Russia-China gas pipeline to launch 12/02/2019):



Aljazeera also has this article by Mikhail Krutikhin of Russian oil consultant RusEnergy on PoS, Power of Siberia or power of China? 12/19/2019. Krutikhin portrays the PoS as a disappointment for Russia:
All in all, the Power of Siberia is a big image-building stunt for Russia, but not a profitable commercial project, and it translates into a net loss for state-controlled Gazprom.

It also entrenches further Russia's role as a mere supplier of energy and raw materials to China and solidifies its dependence on Chinese consumer goods.

Prior to 1993, machinery and equipment accounted for sizable share of Russian exports to China, but today their share is 5 percent . On the other hand, 48 percent of Chinese exports to Russia are electronic appliances, machinery and tech equipment. [my emphasis]

Monday, December 9, 2019

Stanley Sloan and the state of NATO

The "crisis in transatlantic relations" is something that has been part of NATO politics pretty much since the day it was created.

This book was published in 2004 - complete with a blurb at the top from Status Quo Joe Biden himself!


In September 2004, the Wilson Center held a conference on the topic The Crisis in Transatlantic Relations.

The differences over the Iraq War didn't stop the expansion of NATO to include Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia in 2004, followed by Albania and Croatia in 2009 and Montenegro in 2017.

Trump's election to the Presidency has brought a new chapter in the Crisis in Transatlantic Relations. The latest episode made the news again this weekend when Stanley Sloan, a US expert on NATO, was vetoed by the State Department as a speaker at a scheduled NATO conference in Denmark, which as a result was cancelled by the Danish Atlantic Council, which was sponsoring the event. This kind of State Department intervention to veto a speaker with thoroughly Establishment credentials is unusual, as Mariel Padilla reports (NATO Conference Is Canceled After U.S. Ambassador Barred a Trump Critic New York Times 12/08/2019):
Mr. Sloan, a visiting scholar at Middlebury College in Vermont, a fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency, planned to speak about the future of trans-Atlantic relations.

One day before he was set to leave for Copenhagen, Mr. Sloan was informed that the United States Embassy in Copenhagen had vetoed his participation because of his previous criticisms of President Trump, Mr. Sloan said on Facebook on Saturday.

Carla Sands, the United States ambassador to Denmark, did not want Mr. Sloan to participate, and the Danish Atlantic Council “had no other option” than to revoke his invitation to speak, Lars Bangert Struwe, the secretary general of the council, said in a statement.

Mr. Sloan said the decision had left him “stunned and concerned about our country.”
Sloan has been tweeting about the incident.
The page he links contains further links to his work, including his notes for the speech that he couldn't deliver because Dear Leader Baby Trump doesn't want to hear people criticizing his bumbling, fumbling, laughingstock of a foreign policy, Crisis in transatlantic relations: what future will we choose? The speech itself is largely boilerplate Atlanticist assumptions and is thoroughly conventional. He states his perspective as follows:
  • I support liberal democracy as the best, albeit not perfect, political system for our countries.
  • My outlook on how to defend the West is influenced as much by this ideological bias as it is by the need for governments to defend against physical threats.
  • Finally, in my years of working on transatlantic relations I’ve analyzed and written about many “crises.”
  • It’s my judgment that the crisis currently facing the West is the most dangerous of any seen in the past seven decades.
NATO has never been overly disturbed by incidents of member states departing from liberal democracy, e.g., the military government in Greece 1967-1974, various military governments in Turkey and Tayyip Erdoğan's authoritarian Islamist government today, Viktor Orbán's authoritarian regime in Hungary.

Since NATO is an alliance focused on Europe, he takes a Eurocentric view:
Of course, “the West” is more than the transatlantic alliance

When the term is defined broadly, it certainly includes Eastern democracies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

Ultimately, however, the members of NATO and the European Union represent the heart of what we call “the West.’
We could quibble with how he uses "the West" as a normative standard, i.e., Japan is part of "the West" but Russia isn't? But it's not the kind of thing that would raise anyone's eyebrows on Morning Joe.

Sloan makes the sensible point that miltiary budgets are always a matter of political decisions, "so the transatlantic alliance will be perpetually plagued by a 'burdensharing' problem."

He does make an explicit if general criticism of the Trump Administration:
Meanwhile, the American guarantee of European security has, under President Trump, become very uncertain. Mutual trust among leaders of alliance nations is at an all-time low.

The [recent NATO] London meeting did little to reassure us.

And, the threat from Russia has become even more intrusive.

Russia’s Putin is getting a helping hand from our president as well as from radical right populist politicians here in Europe.
He sketches out his (also thoroughly conventional) view of challenges from Russia, China, and international terrorism.

Sloan's description of what he sees as the possibility of a "radical negative change" in NATO sounds like a lazy recitation of decades-old Cold War talk, with Moscow as the mastermind of a European Communist movement replaced by Moscow as the mastermind of a European fascist movement. Actually, Putin's government seems far more interested in encouraging political chaos where it can rather than promoting some ideology encouraging Putin-style governments in other countries.

And what would such a presentation be without an invocation of "Munich"? He describes in his "radical negative change" scenario:
In this hypothetical scenario, Trump continues the process of abandoning US international leadership and decides to remove all US forces from Europe.

Trump tweets that he and Vladimir Putin have agreed that such a move would promote peace and security in Europe.

In response, European allies discuss creating strong, integrated European defense structures to replace the transatlantic NATO one.

But they find it too challenging politically and financially.

Even the overwhelming cost estimate projected in 2019 by the IISS for the EU members to create a defense system as capable as that of NATO turns out to be overly optimistic.

Several member countries suggest that the EU should follow the US lead and sign a peaceful relations accord with Russia, in which both sides pledge to take no aggressive actions against the other.

Even though some commentators immediately label this “the 21st century Munich,” most European governments decide they have little choice.

In addition, this move toward accommodation with Russia strengthens illiberal pro-Moscow parties throughout Europe.

That leads to the election of several national administrations that lean toward fascist forms of governance and away from liberal democracy. [my emphasis]
Not a particularly creative formulation. But, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, the "comfort of convenient belief" can be very attractive in itself. (The Culture of Contentment, 1992) But it often renders its adherents incapable of recognizing important changes and developments not included int he conventional wisdom.

Galbraith also reminds us of the consequences of the kind of threat inflation previously associated with Western views the USSR and justified by the Munich Analogy:
The natural focus of concern was the Soviet Union and its once seemingly stalwart satellites in Eastern Europe. Fear of the not inconsiderable competence of the Soviets in military technology and production provided the main pillar of support for American military spending. However, the alarm was geographically comprehensive. It supported expenditure and military action against such improbable threats as those from Angola, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Grenada, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Laos, Cambodia and, massively, tragically and at great cost, from Vietnam. From being considered a source of fear and concern, only Communist China was, from the early 1970s on, exempt. Turning against the Soviet Union and forgiven for its earlier role in Korea and Vietnam, it became an honorary bastion of democracy and free enterprise, which, later repressive actions notwithstanding, it rather substantially remains.
Which is also a reminder of the risk of threat inflation in relation to today's Russia. And that's a big issue for NATO, an alliance that has expanded greatly in the last three decades but has nevertheless been an alliance in search of a mission since the fall of the USSR in 1992.

The comfortable conventional view of China that Galbraith described there has now been replaced by China as a pressing threat.

US and NATO foreign policy would be well served by a couple of changes: (1) a more pragmatic and realistic view of threats, which also means one not deferential to profit goals of the armaments industries; and, (2) burying the Munich Analogy, which main consequence has long been to encourage a dangerous habit threat inflation.

Sunday, October 20, 2019

Henry Steele Commager's 1965 criticism of the Vietnam War and the deeply problematic assumptions behind US involvement

The 1965 anti-Vietnam War speech by Henry Steele Commager on which I've previously commented has some perceptive criticisms of some fundamental problems with the prevailing post-Second World War adopted by US foreign policy makers and widely marketed to the voting public. These arguments became much more widespread and familiar as the Vietnam War dragged on. (The text quoted here is from "Debate on Vietnam Policy, Alvin Friedman & Henry Steele Commager Amherst College, December 3, 1965," The Massachusetts Review 7:2; Spring 1966)

Even if we take the most jaundiced view of the sources of American foreign policy since 1945, or adopt a standpoint of fundamental criticism like Noam Chomsky, for instance, the Vietnam War did mark an important turning point in American public attitudes toward war. The US continued to operate on much the same assumptions that Commager was critizing in 1965, although Nixon's two-China policy and the later formal recognition of the People's Republic represented a major adjustment in that the US adopted a more practical stance toward the existence of China.

What hawkish politicians on "both sides of the aisle" but especially Republicans called "the Vietnam syndrome" did have a large effect on constraining policymakers from direct military interventions in other countries from the early seventies until the Gulf War of 1991. It didn't do away with the imperialist orientation of US policy. The military dictatorships in Chile, Argentina, and Brazil were viewed favorably by the US, though Carter's human rights policy did reflect some real concern about political repression there. Chile and Argentina in particular became test cases for the "neoliberal" austerity economics that came to dominate much of the world in the 1980s and after, with the 2008 crash putting a huge crack in the consensus around it.

The significance of the anti-colonial movements after 1945 and well into the 1970s don't necessarily receive as much attention as it should these days. But Commager's speech reflects how central they were in practice in world politics at that time. Formal, official colonialism now survives only in spots, like Britain's control of Gibralter and the Malvinas/Falkland Islands. But with China moving quickly to be the leading economic power in the world, it would be easy to forget to what extent Commager's comments on the rise of what we tend to call the developing nations these days represented a sharp criticism of prevaling attitudes.

His speech was a criticism of American Exceptionalism with particular focus on how the Vietnam War illustrated its disastrous effects. Commager was articulating a left-liberal anti-imperialist criticism, not an Old Right isolationist one. Old Right isolationism, the foreign policy outlook of Trump's America First ideology, is actually a virulently nationalistic and imperialist attitude relying on a crude and authoritarian version of American Exceptionalism. (To what extent the chaos in the Trump foreign policy represents incompetence rather than the weaknesses of the America Firster position isn't something on which this post focuses.)

Commager described five assumptions of US Cold War foreign policy that had clearly shown them to be problematic by 1965.
The first of these assumptions was that the world was divided between two great powers or power complexes, the Russian and the American, the slave and the free, and that we and we alone were responsible for the free world. Actually, within a few years, we confronted a world of five or six great power complexes: China, and India, and Western Europe as well as Russia, and possibly others such as Japan, the British Commonwealth, the Latin American, the African, and the Arab worlds. No one nation is, or can be, responsible for the protection of freedom in such a world.
But that was also to a large extent the assumption after 1989 and the so-called End of History. Both neoconservatives and liberal interventionists viewed the US as the hyperpower, the "indispensable nation" that was uniquely qualified to give political and economic directions to the rest of the world and morally obligated to do so. This wasn't simply a cynical propaganda justification for an imperial policy. Ideologies do matter, because they affect the way people interpret events in the world. But the more crudely cynical power motives and old-fashioned greed inevitably pushed the US to show that the Indespensable Nation didn't consider itself bound by the rules it expected lesser nations to follow, shown most dramatically by the Iraq War.
Second, we assumed that Communism was monolithic, fixed, and unchanging; that it was not a political system, or even a social or economic system, but a moral (or immoral) system, and that there was no compromise with it, for you do not compromise with sin except to strike it down. We assumed, too, that Communism was inherently aggressive and expansionist and we have continued to assert this in the face of a good deal of evidence to the contrary. [my emphasis]
The intermixture of ideology, base motives, and typical great-power self-aggrandizement was present then, too. But the particularly dogmatic version of anti-Communism dominant in the US at the time was especially well-suited to drown out more practical considerations.
Third we assumed that there was only one China, that headed by Chiang Kai-shek which ended up in Taiwan, and we are still stuck with that assumption. We insisted that Communist China was not the real China, that it was on the contrary a usurper and an evil force, and was not therefore to be recognized. [my emphasis]
This was the most dramatic case in which imminently practical realities were excluded from actual policymaking due to crackpot ideology. It's particularly striking that even in 1965, official government policy still relied on a concept of a unified and aggressive Soviet-Chinese bloc. In fact, the Chinese and Soviet governments were already having significant differences and disagreements in the mid-1950s, disagreements which had become public in 1960 and became increasingl virulent thereafter. (See the 2015 book Shadow Cold War: The Sino- Soviet Competition for the Third World by Jeremy Friedman.)

One of the effects of McCarthyism in the 1950s had been to basically drive a lot of the most qualified China experts out of the State Department. Because anyone with actual knowledge and expertise in the area had at one time or another made a factual observation or policy recommendation not consistent with simplistic anti-Communist assumptions. The Trump Administration was not the first time that militant ignorance gained undue influence in American foreign policy.
[Fourth] Because in 1945 we were the most powerful nation on the globe we assumed that our power was and would continue to be limitless, and that we could impose our will upon the rest of the world. We knew that we were virtuous and our will righteous and we were not therefore worried about the moral implications of this kind of arrogance, though history teaches that there is something corrupting in assumptions of this kind. [my emphasis]
Whatever measure of moderation of this dominant attitude that came into play in the 1970s and 1980s was largely swept away with the End of History in 1989. Remember when Shrub Bush declared that the war against terrorism aimed at the end of evil? David Frum, one of his speechwriters and now a prominent Nevertrumper, co-authored a book with the neoconservative Richard Perle, who his admirers referred to as the "Prince of Darkness", An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror (2003), a prime example of the fanaticism and arrogance that led to the Iraq War. (Note: Sixteen years later, we still seem to be quite far removed from ending Evil.)
Fifth, because we meant well, because the American way of life was part of freedom and progress, and was even identified with the cosmic system, we assumed that those who opposed us were either misguided or wicked or both, and many of us still cherish this assumption, though no longer with the confidence with which we entertained it in the past.
Today's Republican Party has made Christian Right fundamentalism so integral a part of its ideology that that identification "with the cosmic system" applies even more strongly to the Republican Party today than it did to either party in 1965. Although secularizing trends have continued and outside the Republican Party religious pluralism is a more rubust sentiment today.

Commager added what he saw as a fundamental miscalculation in relation to the anti-colonial liberation movements and the aspirations of new nations that had emerged from colonialism:
Along with these misguided assumptions, we made a great miscalculation of a negative character. We failed to understand the nature of what is doubtless the greatest revolution of modern times, the greatest and most far-reaching since the shift in the center of gravity from the Mediterranean to the Atlantic in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries: the revolt of Asia and Africa against the West, the emergence into modernity of two-thirds of the peoples of the globe. ... We allowed ourselves to be maneuvered into the position that Britain had occupied throughout much of the 19th century and France in the 20th - that of the stalwart defender of the status quo, of the West, and of the white peoples, as over against the underprivileged, the black and yellow and brown peoples of the world. [my emphasis]
And he pointed out how the preference for stability along with anti-Communist ideology led to a thoroughly unpragmatic phobia against revolutions everywhere (although that bias for stability didn't hold the US back from counter-revolutionary regime change operations):
Once again, too, we are failing to recognize and cooperate with revolution - revolution in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia and elsewhere; that is one reason we have lost the support and confidence of the spokesmen of these peoples. Here as elsewhere on the globe - Cuba, Santo Domingo, Brazil, Guatemala, we have maneuvered ourselves into the position of being the enemy of change and of what the peoples of these countries think is freedom. In the eyes of Asians we are the protagonist of the West against the East, of white people against yellow and brown people, of power against the weak people who are always the victims of power. [my emphasis]
The social character of the various revolutions he mentions tvaried greatly, from a Communist-led revolution in Vietnam to a liberal democratic reform government in Guatemala. He was calling here for a more realistic and less militarized approach to countries in the world system of nations who might be annoying to the US government, as in accepting military support from Communist China or development aid from the Soviet Union, or to particular lobbies in America like United Fruit Company with Guatemala.

In testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 1967, Commager stated his perspective this way (Changing American Attitudes Toward Foreign Policy 02/20/1967):
What I am suggesting is that, we need to cultivate patience, tolerance, the long view, and even sympathy with the new nationa of the globe, even if their emergence onto the crowded stage of history is turbulent and dangerous. We would do well to recover something of Jefferson's penpective on the French Revolution - which horrilied most Wstern peoples just as communism does today. It was, he said, "the agonizing spasms of infuriated man, seeking through blood and slaughter his long lost liberties." "Long-lost liberties" is, to be sure, not the phrase we instictively apply to either the Russian or the Chinese revolutions, for they did not, alas, enjoy liberty in their historical past, but that they are seeking to throw off what they assume to be tyranny and exploitation - in the case of the Soviet, a homegrown brand of tyranny; in the case of China, foreign and achieve independence and progress in their way, is, I think, beyond dispute. [my emphasis]
Commager there wasn't advocating indifference to human rights abuses. He was arguing for a pragmatic and less militarized foreign policy in place of one by ideology, arrogance, and ignorance.