Wednesday, February 9, 2022

The Ukraine crisis and Russia-China relations

One important factor in the current Ukraine crisis doesn't seem to get a lot of coverage in the news on the crisis is the relationship of Russia and China.

Giorgio Cafiero and Daniel Wagner wrote about the China factor in the aftermath of Russia's occupation of the Crimea in 2014 (How China Benefits From the Ukraine Crisis 04/01/2014):
Having stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia on the Syrian civil war, China vetoed three United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on the basis that Syria's sovereignty was threatened by Western powers. Beijing and Moscow have also defended their aligned positions on a plethora of pariah states and international crises -- all under the banner of non-interference in the affairs of sovereign nations. China was therefore placed in a difficult position when Russia was accused of violating Ukraine's sovereignty by interfering in Crimea. Fearful of being accused of moral hypocrisy, China did not want to be seen as overtly supporting Moscow, but at the same time, China was not eager to align with the West against the Kremlin, given Russia's growing importance to China's overall foreign policy.

The emerging China-Russia alliance therefore serves as a counterbalance to the U.S. while advancing China's commercial, energy and military interests. Across their shared 2,700 mile border, China and Russia have increased bilateral trade seven-fold since 2002. China has grown increasingly dependent on Russia, as the world's top energy exporter, to quench its seemingly insatiable thirst for oil and natural gas. China has become the main beneficiary of the Russian Eastern Siberia/Pacific Ocean oil pipeline, and it buys more military equipment from Russia than from any other country. [my emphasis]
China does have investments and interests in Ukraine that are not the same as Russia's. Siegfried Kottel wrote about the shift to closer relations between China and Russia in the context of the Crimean crisis of 2014 in China: Der neue Seehegemon, Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik 7:2014; my translation from the German):
For a long time, it seemed as if China was treading this path [expanding its regional influence] alone. But it is precisely the Ukraine crisis that is now driving a new ally into China's arms: Russia. With his Ukraine policy, Russian President Vladimir Putin has maneuvered himself into an isolation in which Russia threatens to lose its sales markets for energy and the investments urgently needed for modernization from Western industrialized countries. This has now led the Russian president to seek greater proximity to the Chinese leadership. Chinese President Xi Jinping finds this rapprochement very convenient – for strategic reasons but also because China is always looking for new sources of energy. [my emphasis]
Kottel also noted, "The Ukraine is traditionally an important arms supplier for the Chinese Army."

Yes, there's more going on in the Ukraine crisis than a Cold-War-nostalgia testosterone contest.

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