Russia, NATO, China and the tensions over Ukraine

Sarah Rainsford reminds us that Russia concerns about further NATO expansion on its border is a key issue at play in the current Ukraine-Russia tensions. (Russia-Ukraine border: Why Moscow is stoking tensions BBC News 11/28/2021) It's not the only one. And of course the Russians would be glad to magnify the significance of that concern in the service of diplomacy and propaganda.

But it's unthinkable that it's not a real concern on their part, aside from the fact that they've been saying it for years. It's kind of a banal thought exercise, and oversimplified, but it might help to imagine how the US would regard Canada or Mexico joining a mutual defense treaty with Russia or China. In the world of today, it's hard to imagine that it would be regarded in the mainstream, and by most hardcore "restraint" advocates, as a very real and legitimate national security concern.

Rainsford reports:

["Most analysts"] see the Kremlin sending a message that it's ready to defend its "red lines" on Ukraine: above all, that it must not join Nato.

"I think for Putin it's really important. He thinks the West has begun giving Ukraine's elite hope about joining Nato," political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya at R.Politik told the BBC.

"The training, the weapons and so on are like a red rag to a bull for Putin and he thinks if he doesn't act today, then tomorrow there will be Nato bases in Ukraine. He needs to put a stop to that."

Ukraine's desire to join the security bloc is nothing new, nor is Russia's insistence on vetoing that ambition in what it sees as its own "back yard".

But Moscow has been rattled recently by the Ukrainian military using Turkish drones against Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine; the flight near Crimea of two nuclear-capable US bombers was an extra irritant.

There's also concern that the so-called Minsk agreements, a framework for ending Ukraine's seven-year-old conflict that's too contentious to actually implement, could be jettisoned for something more favourable to Kyiv. [my emphasis]

On the other hand, Russia's actions in 2014 would seem to have already effectively block Ukraine from joining NATO. Or rather, from NATO allowing Ukraine to join. Because Russia not only controls but has formally annexed the Ukrainian territory of Crimea, unquestionably in violation of international law. Russia also controls the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, though without formally annexing them.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made this comment on NATO's relation to Ukraine on 11/30/2021 (Doorstep statement NATO):

Our presence in Eastern part of the Alliance is, of course, defensive.

It was actually the increased presence of NATO troops in this Eastern part of the Alliance, in the Black Sea region, and in the Baltic region was triggered by Russia's use of force against Ukraine back in 2014, with the illegal annexation of Crimea, and with the continued destabilization of Donbas, Eastern Ukraine. So there's no doubt that this was a defensive response to what we saw back then.

I think it is important to distinguish between NATO Allies and partner Ukraine. NATO Allies, there we provide [Article 5] guarantees, collective defence guarantees, and we will defend and protect all Allies.

Ukraine is a partner, a highly valued partner. We provide support, political, practical support. Allies provide training, capacity building, equipment and I am absolutely certain that Allies will recommit and reconfirm their strong support to Ukraine also during the meeting today.

But as I said there's a difference between a partner Ukraine and an Ally like for instance Latvia. [my emphasis]

There are other closely-related issues, such as Russian pipelines serving Western Europe and its ambitions to hold Belarus as more oriented toward Russia than towards Poland and the West - the latter a situation which certainly seems to be the case at the moment!

What I have not seen much remarked on in recent news analyses of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is how it plays in Russia-China-USA relations. After all, the US from the Nixon Administration to the fall of the USSR pursued a balancing strategy of US China to balance against the Soviet Union. Russia and China have generally good relations right now. With the "New Cold War" against China getting a lot of attention during the Biden-Harris Administration, China can't be entirely sorry to see the US and NATO engaged with tensions with Russia involving Ukraine.

China has been pursuing closer relations with Ukraine for years. (Nicolas Tenzer, Europe can't ignore Chinese encroachment in Ukraine EUObserver 11/22/2021) So China definitely figures into this mix. In this case, both Russia and China have reason to be concerned about closer Ukrainian ties to the West. Although that doesn't mean China's and Russia's interests are completely aligned on Ukraine. Putin's government presumably has concerns about China gaining what it sees as excessive influence in Ukraine, too.

The Ukrainian government is not a passive pawn in all this. They are pursuing their own goals which also don't match up precisely with those of NATO, Russia, and China. See:

• Dan De Luce and Veronika Melkozerova, Fed up with the U.S., Ukraine cuts deals with China and shuts up about the Uyghurs NBC News 11/29/2021
• Emil Filtenborg and Stefan Weichert, Should Ukraine take Chinese cash for its huge roads upgrade project? Euronews 09/30/2021
• Maxim Samorukov and Temur Umarov, China’s Relations with Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova: Less Than Meets the Eye Carnegie Institute Moscow 12/31/2020
•  Valbona Zeneli and Nataliia Haluhan, Why China is Setting its Sights on Ukraine The Diploma 10/04/2019