I always feel like I need to offer an apology every time I praise Über-Realist John Mearsheimer.
Because his general “offensive realism” international-relations viewpoint always seems too cynical and simplistic somehow. But doggone it, he not only looks at the right factors in issues like the current Middle East war. He’s also an actual expert on Israeli foreign policy and the American politics of Israel. And he seems happy to play the role of public intellectual, without the kind of dumbing-down of content that is too often association with that role.(He ain’t no Jordan Peterson, in other words!)
About halfway through this interview (1), I almost started feeling sorry for Piers Morgan - almost – because he was talking stock war slogans and Mearsheimer was talking real-world foreign policy.
This screenshot gives a good summary of the general tone of the discussion. Piers Morgan: here’s the latest Israeli talking point, what about that, huh, huh? Mearsheimer: Are you deliberately offering silly straw-man arguments to be provocative, or are you really this clueless? (My summary characterization, not exact quotes.)
In the latter part of the interview, Piers turns to Ukraine and displays how little he seems to understand about the realities of that war. And there he takes an even more knee-jerk hawkish position that he does on Israel.
Mearsheimer patiently explains to him:
Look, your problem, Piers, is that you're living in the last months of 2022 when the Ukrainians were on a roll, and it looked like they were going to do very well against the Russians.
If you look at what happened in 2023 and what's happened now in 2024, the first nine months of this year, it's quite clear that the balance of power has shifted decisively in the Russians’ favor. And there is nothing we can do to rescue the situation. There are no magic weapons that we can give to the Ukrainians that are going to allow them to win this war.
They're going to lose the war. There's nothing we can do about that. You don't seem to understand that given the fact that there's nothing can do about it. It makes sense from a moral point of view to end the war as quickly as possible.
At the end, Piers tries to provoke him by claiming that what he’s talking about is totally immoral. Because he argues that as long as the Ukrainians want to keep fighting, the West is morally obligated to give Ukraine whatever weapons they want. “Give [Ukrainian President Zelenskyy] everything and let him win.”
Has this guy ever even read a book about an actual war? Does he really think that allies in a war normally give each other whatever one of the countries requests? Or is he just a product of the Murdoch press empire?
Mearsheimer doesn’t take the bait and responds:
I don't know what you're so upset about Pierce because the fact is the US government agrees with you. You and the US government and the West European governments and the east European governments are going to fight to the last Ukrainian. [Piers: “Good.”] And I think this is from a moral point of view and, from Ukraine's point of view, the wrong thing to do.
My favorite moment is when Piers tries out the braindead neocon argument that Hitler is on the border – as he always is in the neoconservatives’ imagination - and the West has to put everything into fighting him.
Like I said, I almost feel sorry for Piers on this one. Almost.
And I aspire to someday master Mearsheimer’s facial expression that says calmly, “Are you out of your frigging mind?”
Notes:
(1) "Morally Reprehensible!" John Mearsheimer On Israel, Hezbollah, Trump & Ukraine. Piers Morgan Uncensored YouTube channel 09/24/2024. <https://youtu.be/STBSaDn_q8g?si=ObA8jNsbwhiS6iPk> (Accessed: 2024-25-09).
Israel has launched an actual war now in Lebanon. Initial indications seem to indicate Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF will apply something like their approach in the ongoing Gaza war to Lebanon.
Democracy Now! reports: (1)
Deutsche Welle English also has a current report: (2)
After 8:30 in that report, they interview Miri Eisin, “a retired Israeli Israel Defense Forces colonel with an extensive background in Israeli military intelligence. She also served as an international media adviser for a previous Israeli government,” i.e. Ehud Olmert’s. Her appearance opens:
[DW interviewer:] The Israeli Army has released images which they say show the exact location of [where] Hezbollah weapons are stored in civilian homes given that kind of intelligence could the IDF have removed those weapons in a less destructive way and perhaps a lot earlier?
[Miri Elsin:] So, it's interesting you ask it in such a way. What you're saying is that we should have done a ground incursion. Wow! That's the next stage of a- we're in an aerial operation have ground for-
She ducked the question and instantly tried to redefine it. To his credit, the interviewer stuck to his question and responded in a tone that said, okay-I’m-not-playing-this-game:
[DW:] Forgive me, I didn't suggest anything. I asked a question. Please continue.
[Eisin:] Absolutely. So, I always wonder about what kind of, what do you do when you have an enormous arsenal. What the IDF put out yesterday was one example of one cruise missile held inside a private home in a village in southern Lebanon.
And this is the kind of arsenal that Hezbollah has built up since the 2006 Second Lebanon war. It is built it up in the southern towns that are mainly Shiite towns in the Bekka Valley and in the Dahieh area of Beirut.
Yes, fellow Americans, it’s a new war, so it’s time to brush up on geography again: Bekka Valley, Dahieh, Beirut, etc.
[Eisin:] Again, those are strongholds and this illustration that the IDF put out is most definitely because we're not physically going into the towns and villages. That is a ground incursion. Which would be - I say sadly - much more deadly.
Since the IDF is known for being particularly casualty-averse, (3) presumably she means, more deadly for the IDF. The host didn’t bring this up, but what about all those super-high-tech weapons Israel is so proud of? In Gaza, they use them to strike individual houses in order to kill suspect Hamas fighters along with their families. I suppose that would be rude to ask.
She goes on to rant some more about Hezbollah and Iran. She says all the deaths are their fault. No surprise there.
The DW host continues, “Understood. And as we heard from [DW’s Chreyteh] Muhammad a little earlier, there's no way for those images to be independently verified. We take what you say, we'll we - we hear what you say and we'll make our own minds up.”
Netanyahu made a statement also mentioning the supposed rockets sheltered in residential houses. Whether we ever have any independent confirmation of that is uncertain. But the bombing using that excuse has already begun. We’ve seen that in Gaza, too, where Israel constantly said the schools and hospitals and residential buildings they were destroying were sheltering Hamas or a Hamas command center or Hamas tunnels
[DW:] The Prime Minister [Netanyahu] went on TV to tell the people of Lebanon, Israel's war is not with you. It's with Hezbollah. If that's true, why give them such short notice before yesterday's massive strikes?
[Eisin:] Hezbollah, Israel, from October 8th. This is not a war that Israel has started. Hezbollah, the day after Kamas attacked Israel, attacked Israel with rockets with rockets, with UAVs, with projectiles throughout the North and has done so every single day since.
As usual, with this pitch, we get no description of what damage these various “projectiles” Hamas is firing or how much damage or loss of life they cause. Generally, not much. (Which of course doesn’t excuse indiscriminate attacks by Hezbollah.)
You get the drift. And, yes, she makes sure to get in the talking point about how the World’s Most Moral Army gives warning to civilians to clear out. We’ve seen for nearly a year now how those have worked in Gaza.
In addition to never providing anything resembling independent confirmation of the rockets-in-houses claim – which in itself is plausible and not absurd on its face - we also have to wonder if the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will target journalists in Lebanon as aggressively as they do in Gaza.
Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli indicates the aim of Israel is to target the "Shia enemy population" north of the Israel border to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon free of Lebanese and that "Shia enemy population". (4)
Will Israel use the “Lavender” and “Where’s Daddy?” AI systems in Lebanon to kill men who appear to be a certain age and make a point to kill their families along with them? (5)
How is Netanyahu looking at the war?
Haaretz military and defense analyst Amos Harel has a good understand of the kind of view the Netanyahu government and the IDF. In an early September 24 column on the new latest events, Harel says:
Without any formal declarations, Israel and Hezbollah have in practice moved to a phase of all-out war on Monday. This determination seems true even though Israeli soldiers haven't yet crossing the border into Lebanon and Hezbollah hasn't yet acted on its threat to fire rockets at the greater Tel Aviv area. The main change in the situation was heralded by an extensive wave of airstrikes launched by the air force in the early hours of Monday. By 5 P.M., reports from Lebanon indicated that close to 300 people had been killed and hundreds of others wounded, and that the strikes destroyed a large number of rocket and missile stockpiles. [my emphasis] (6)
And he observes:
Hezbollah responded with an attack on the outskirts of Haifa and then on the city itself, but it's likely that it will move to heavier strikes deeper inside Israel. Many in Israel are hoping for this in the belief that it will provide the opportunity for routing the terror organization. The bottom line is that Israel is on the fast track to war, even if the public hasn't officially been told this.
On the issue of missiles-in-houses, he writes:
The target there is a project Hezbollah started before the Second Lebanon War in 2006 (it sustained a serious blow at that time): the systematic deployment in villages across the country of mid- and long-range missiles, some of them high-precision, from the group's most important strategic stockpile. These launchers and missiles were mounted on balconies and in the basements of houses, prepared for use in case they were needed. Israeli intelligence has meticulously gathered information on this deployment and it appears that since Monday morning there has been a focused targeting of these stockpiles. [my emphasis]
He notes that Defense Minister Zoav Gallant and top IDF commanders had been advocating for ending combat in Gaza and focus on Lebanon, but Netanyahu disagreed on ending the Gaza combat. But Netanyahu changed his mind. Harel writes:
A unity of opinions in top echelons is legitimate. The most dangerous thing is smugness that can lead to euphoria, which seems to have overcome senior politicians since Sunday. Worryingly, echoes of this can be heard in the IDF, as if the October 7 massacre and the surprise attack it involved never happened. Netanyahu listens to a small circle of advisers, comprising former senior IDF officers holding hawkish opinions. This group of people believes that only by exerting more force will it be possible to impose a deal on Hezbollah. That is their right.
What would be best to avoid is thinking that a series of unprecedented successes chalked up by the IDF and Israel's intelligence agencies in their offensive will necessarily lead to a similar situation while on the defensive [i.e., if Hezbollah mounts a substantial attack on Israel]. War is not a football game. There are no clean victories. Hezbollah is now at a disadvantage, but as has been written here for a long time, it would be better not to dismiss the organization's ability to strike at Israel's home front, including some painful nexuses or locations where we are unprepared. [my emphasis]
War fantasies obviously excite some people
The Biden Administration, of course, is moving more American troops into the area. While hawks backing Israel’s wars are hoping for Donald Trump in the White Houses. Columnist Dan Zamansky apparently thinks even Donald Trump wouldn’t be tough enough to do what needs to be done – which apparently includes crushing all of Israel’s current enemies and also taking over North Korea. He scolds the US for not, well, starting World War Three against all the Bad People. Or something. In addition to scolding the Biden Administration for its almost exclusively verbal and so far obviously ineffective attempt to contain Israel’s current wars, he gripes:
With every day that passes, the Biden-Harris administration provides new evidence that it intends to remain passive in a futile attempt to maintain the present situation worldwide by doing nothing at all. (7)
Then he spins a World War II fantasy, not without the usual rightwing fantasies: “In 1945, America had defeated three dangerous dictatorships, but was formally allied to a fourth, the Soviet Union. There was no energy, no intention to confront the USSR.” Which, like a good neocon, Zamansky thinks was wimpy. Yeah, dude, the US was going to enter a war with the USSR at the moment the Allied coalition had won the most destructive war in history. Maybe someone should explain to him about the battles of Moscow, Stalingrad, and Kursk. Good Lord, this is one of the dumbest of all rightwing fantasies.
Advice for Zamansky: Lay off the neocon tea. It’s not good for you, dude.
Notes:
(1) "Absolutely Terrifying": Israel's War Comes to Lebanon, Sets Record-Breaking Single-Day Death Toll. Democracy Now! YouTube channel 09/24/2024. <https://youtu.be/OcdIWRmLW4U?si=5wO1sXOSvDE1Vf7b> (Accessed: 2024-24-09).
(7) Zamansky, Dan (2024): Biden and Harris are addicted to the status quo; Israel, and others, must disregard them. Ynet News 09/24/2024. <https://www.ynetnews.com/article/sy88mygra> (Accessed: 2024-24-09).
Benjamin Netanyahu’s preferred candidate in the US Presidential election has thoughts about the responsibilities of American Jewish voters:
"I'm here tonight to deliver an urgent warning to Jewish Americans and to friends of Israel all around the world, " Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump said on Friday adding that evangelical Christians who support Israel love it more than Jewish people in New York, sometimes. "If we continue down this path for four more years with Kamala, Israel will be faced not only with an attack but with total annihilation." …
"You have a big protector in me. You don't have a protector on the other side," he said. "Anybody who's Jewish and loves being Jewish and loves Israel, is a fool if they vote for a Democrat... You should have your head examined." ...
Trump complained that only 29% of Jews supported him in the 2020 elections, which he lost to [Biden], despite "giving" Israel the Golan Heights, the Abraham Accord and the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital along with billions and billions of dollars. He claimed polls now show he has 40% support of American Jews, but 60% remaining percent still support the Democrats, whom he called the enemy.
"You didn't treat yourselves well," he told the Jewish crowd. "I wasn't treated properly by the voters who happen to be Jewish," he said. "If I don't win these elections, the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that." [my emphasis] (1)
Allowing Netanyahu to address a joint session of Congress in July to make what was essentially a campaign speech for Donald Trump was a genuinely dumb move. This is a classic example of the Democrats’ chronic difficulty in fighting for their own side.
Just a reminder, the fundamentalist Christian Zionists like those support the Christian United for Israel group “support” constant war for Israel because they think it will bring on what the see as the blessed day of Jesus’ return which they believe will be prefaced by ridding the world of Jews, most by being killed in a big, bloody war after which the few remaining Jews convert to Christianity. So, when the world is finally rid of Jews, in their worldview Jesus can finally come again.
Cultish fanaticism makes for really bad politics.
Deutsche Welle has a report describing the terrorizing effect of Israel’s exploding-pager attack: (2)
One background implication of that report is that Israel is not the only actor in that conflict who is paying attention to the fact of the Presidential election in the US. Presumably neither the Hezbollah leaders nor or the Iranians would think Donald Trump would be more likely to restrain Israel than Kamala Harris.
But the world doesn’t entirely revolve around US politics. With Israel positioning its forces to facilitate an invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah and its allies have to consider which actions are more likely to be effective against such an attack, including what proactive measures they need to take and when. And they will also try to retain whatever element of surprise they may be able to use to their advantage. (3)
Israel has carefully cultivated an image of being militarily invincible. Understandably so. But the reality is much more complicated. As IDF Major General (reserve) Yitzhak Brik explains, “Because the IDF's high command slashed the ground forces by 66 percent compared to what they were 20 years ago, it doesn't have enough troops to remain for long period of time in any territory it conquers, nor does it have troops to relieve those who are fighting.” (my emphasis) (4)
Brik joins other analysts in noting that despite the exceptionally brutal war on Gaza civilians, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), they have not eliminated Hamas as a military force in Gaza and Hamas remains in control of whatever functioning government is left in the Gaza Strip. The Hamas tunnel system is reportedly still largely intact.
The IDF has no way of ending [Hamas’] rule, even if the organization is weaker than it was in the past. The continued fighting has lost any purpose, and the war of attrition is destroying everything good in Israel – its economy, its international relations, its social resilience and its fighters' motivation. Many reservists are refusing to be called up again and again.
Nevertheless, ignoring these grave facts, Netanyahu, Gallant and Halevi intend on launching a ground war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Any such war is likely to deal Israel a mortal, terminal blow. The IDF, which failed to destroy Hamas, certainly won't be able to destroy Hezbollah, which is hundreds of times more powerful than Hamas. [my emphasis]
But the Times of Israel featured this headline on September 19: (5)
This headline illustrates how empty the Biden Administration’s pretense that if is trying to restrain Israel’s actions have become. The only way the US can persuade Israel to stop attacks on Lebanon (“halt counter-strikes”) is to actually start cutting off US arms supplies. Otherwise, Netanyahu’s government would be foolish at this point to regard such statements as anything but meaningless PR. And there is no reason to believe that Biden would actually agree to do that while he’s still in office. His Israel policy is running on cruise-control that is set to Always Back Israel’s Actions Unconditionally. (I would love to see the Administration prove me wrong.)
Brik continues:
A senior U.S. official, who is more aware than they are of Israel's true situation, warned against an all-out war with Hezbollah, saying that any escalation could lead to catastrophic and unforeseen results. He also said a full-scale war could be avoided, but if it did erupt, then both sides would pay a heavy price. Thousands would die, maybe tens of thousands. And infrastructure would be badly damaged.
Moreover, he said, Israel won't be able to easily destroy Hezbollah and apparently won't even achieve most of its goals. It would be an extensive war, and many people on both sides would die. Residents of Israel's north wouldn't be able to return home quickly, he continued, and any such war would in any case end with a deal whose outlines are already clear. And that, he concluded, is why the Americans are trying to reach such a deal now. [my emphasis]
There is every reason to think that Netanyahu’s is also committed to the official program of his government coalition, permanent Israeli control in all of “Eretz Israel,” aka, from the (Jordan) river to the (Mediterranean) sea.
The shortage of IDF personnel given Netanyahu’s expansive aims is illustrated by this ugly practice:
No Israeli of conscience could fail to be shocked by the fact that the defense establishment is using asylum seekers from Africa to perform various tasks in the Gaza Strip in exchange for assistance in obtaining permanent residency in Israel.
What this means is clear: Israel is creating its own version of Russia's Wagner Group. In Russia, Wagner was a mercenary army comprised of thousands of prisoners who, in exchange for very dangerous military service, received a pardon and were freed from jail. In Israel, this criminal extortion is aimed at the weakest segment of society, asylum seekers from Africa: Carry out life-threatening tasks for an army that isn't yours, in a war that isn't yours, and you'll be given permanent residency.
This report comes on top of the fact that the Israel Defense Forces is using Palestinian civilians who are snatched up randomly to search tunnels in Gaza. These miserable Palestinians are sent into the tunnels with their hands tied, cameras strapped to their bodies, to "clear" tunnels in place of dogs from the Oketz Unit, many of which have been killed during the war.
At least one Palestinian has been killed doing this; it is virtually a suicide mission. "Our lives are more important than their lives," one IDF officer said. The report also said that the high command is aware of this practice. [my emphasis] (6)
This is why the IDF’s preferred self-description as “the world’s most moral army” has become such a sick joke.
Meanwhile, Israel’s current actions don’t look like restraint:
You might not have noticed because this time there was no press conference, but the IDF overnight between Thursday and Friday pulled off the second largest official attack on Hezbollah of the year.
A "normal" Israeli attack takes out dozens or fewer rockets. (7)
Gideon Levy has been a critic of Israeli policies in the occupied territories and the region for a long time. His latest evaluations have been particularly pointed. In this one, for instance, he reminds us that for all the criticism of Netanyahu (whose popularity has actually risen considerably from its low point earlier this year), there is widespread support among the Israeli public for his actual war policies:
Israel is turning, with alarming speed, into a country that lives on blood. The daily crimes of the occupation are already less relevant. Over the past year, a new reality of mass killing and crimes of an entirely different scale has emerged. We are in a genocidal reality; the blood of tens of thousands of people has flowed.
This is the time that all Israelis should ask themselves if they are willing to live in a country that lives on blood. Just don't say that there is no choice – of course there is – but first we must ask whether we are even prepared to live like this.
Are we, the Israelis, willing to live in the only country in the world whose existence is based on blood? The only vision that is widespread in Israel now is to live from one war to another war, from one bloodletting to the next, from massacre to massacre, with intervals spaced as widely as possible.
No other vision is on the table. Hopeful people promise long intervals, while the right promises a permanent blood-soaked reality: war, mass killing, systematic violation of international law, a pariah state, repeating in an endless cycle. [my emphasis] (8)
That’s a grim view from someone who has been pleading for many years for a pragmatic, realistic peace policy for Israel.
And as of September 19, he is not optimistic about the chances of pragmatic restraint by Netanyahu’s government:
We now also have it in writing, in a thousand exploding copies: Israel wants a war, a big one. There is no other way of understanding the glittering and exploding Hollywood-style operation in Lebanon other than the transmission of a determined pager message to the enemy, revealing Israel's true intentions. One thousand explosions with 3,000 injuries are an invitation to war. It will come. ...
It's inconceivable that after a yearlong failed war in Gaza, which has not attained any goal or chalked up any achievement for Israel other than satisfying a lust for vengeance, Israel wants another. It's inconceivable that after Israel has paid and will continue to pay such a fateful price in the wake of the war in Gaza, it desires more war. It's unimaginable, but it's a fact. …
Just like the glorious assassinations which never contributed anything, so are the pager heroics, nothing but a cinematic gimmick. Other than the drool shed in TV studios by people who salivate over every dead or wounded Arab, Israel's situation on the day after is worse than it was on the day before this heroic operation, even if people gave out sweets in Israel.
War in the north moved closer the other day, at an alarming speed. It will be the most preventable war in the country's history. It could be its biggest bloodbath as well. When Hezbollah explicitly states that it will stop shooting as soon as a cease-fire deal is signed with Hamas, and Israel is unwilling to stop the war in Gaza under any circumstances, it is inviting Hezbollah to attack it. That's what a war of choice looks like. [my emphasis]
Levy isn’t giving up hope yet for avoiding a more massive conflict with Lebanon and Iran. But the window of opportunity to restrain Netanyahu’s war plans is obviously closing rapidly.
Notes:
(1) Edelson, Daniel & Eichner, Itamar (2024): Trump says if he loses the elections it will be the fault of Jews. Ynet News 09/20/2024. <https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkk00f59pa> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(2) Hezbollah leader Nasrallah: 'Israel has declared war on the Lebanese people'. DW News YouTube channel 09/20/2024. <https://youtu.be/o2CAqeCPRBs?si=nrhAosUznWdzu_W7> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(3) 'Very dangerous moment': Israel, Hezbollah miscalculation 'could bring about terrible regional war'. FRANCE 24 English YouTube channel 09/20/2024. <https://youtu.be/5ti778kETho?si=TjqtPEruxPS0UAIb> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(7) Bob, Yonah Jeremy (2024): With little fanfare, IDF pulls off 2nd largest official attack on Hezbollah of year – analysis. Jerusalem Post 09/20/2024. <https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-820990> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
The news about terrorist attacks and military actions tend to grab the headlines.
But there are two key things to remember in the current situation in which Israel is clearly trying to start a full-blown war with Lebanon: Benjamin Netanyahu wants to draw the US directly into a broader Middle East war including against Iran; and, Netanyahu wants to see Donald Trump as the US President again. Israel’s actions in the roughly six weeks before the US Presidential election can only be understood within that framework.
Here is an Aljazeera report from today: (1)
FRANCE 24 also reports on the terrorist pager attacks in Lebanon: (2)
And, in case you might be thinking hopefully about the situation there de-escalating, here’s John Mearsheimer delivering a downer message – and unfortunately, he’s very often right about these things: (3)
(On the other military mess in which the US is deeply involved, Mearsheimer notes at the start of this interview that apparently Joe Biden decided to back off on an escalatory measure in the Ukraine War that has been intensely discussed lately. So maybe – maybe – Biden isn’t operating completely on cruise control on these things.)
On Israel, Mearsheimer’s comments here are (uncharacteristically) a bit confusing as to whether Israel wanted to coerce Hezbollah into accepting a ceasefire or intends to invade. But he emphasizes that Netanyahu very much wants to drag the US into a direct war with Iran. “The Israelis have bee trying to make that war happen for a long time,” he stresses.
He also notes, “In a battle of wills between the Biden Administration and Netanyahu, Netanyahu wins nine out of ten times.”
And, as Meron Rapoport observes, Israeli isn’t done with its war on Gaza civilians yet:
Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant remain tight-lipped about the real goals of the [planned upcoming] operation, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, as well as other ministers on the far right, declare them openly. Here, they cite a program that the “Forum of Reserve Commanders and Fighters,” spearheaded by Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, proposed just a few weeks ago: ordering all residents of northern Gaza to leave within a week, before imposing a full siege on the area, including shutting off all supplies of water, food, and fuel, until those who remain surrender or die of starvation.
Other prominent Israelis, in recent months, have also called on the military to carry out mass extermination in northern Gaza. “Remove the entire civilian population from the north, and whoever remains there will be lawfully sentenced as a terrorist and subjected to a process of starvation or extermination,” Prof. Uzi Rabi, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University, elaborated in a radio interview on Sept. 15. And in August, according to a report in Ynet, government ministers had already started pressuring Netanyahu to “cleanse” northern Gaza of its inhabitants. [my emphasis] (4)
This is already by far the longest war Israel has ever had since its founding. Even the War of Independence of 1948-49 lasted just under six months.
(2) Lebanon pager explosions: Long-term operation leading up to attack FRANCE 24 English. FRANCE 24 English 09/19/2024. <https://youtu.be/wbIOwfZiThk?si=iOt1HYymS57Z5Tj_> (Accessed: 2024-19-09).
Deutsche Welle has this report on the pager explosions in Lebanon aimed at Hezbollah. Both their guests interviewed make the obvious assumption that Israel is behind the attack: Matthew Levitt of the nearly 40-year-old pro-Israel think-tank Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP); and, Makram Rabah of the American University in Beirut. (1)
Aljazeera brings this short early report: (2)
It's important to keep in mind that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government are pursuing a policy of widening the war, which accords with Netanyahu’s priority of keeping the war going as long as possible to stay in office and with his decades-long goal of involving the US in a direct war with Iran.
The US has a real national interest in staying out of a war with Iran. But the Biden Administration’s de facto unconditional support of Israel’s war policies – backed by most Democratic Member of Congress and supported all but unanimously by the Trumpista Republican part with its large, devoted Christian Right voter bloc – very much works against that part of US the national interest.
The UN Director at the International Crisis Group, Richard Gowan, said this week:
“Were Harris to come [to speak at the UN right now], which I think we now think is very unlikely, she would obviously be a great focus of interest,” Gowan added. “But clearly, in the back of everyone’s mind, is going to be…Donald Trump. And I think in a lot of the private conversations around the General Assembly, the number one question will be what will Trump do to the organization?... It’s not pretty. We imagine that he would pull out of a lot of the things he pulled out of before, like the Human Rights Council and Paris Climate pact. We also think that he would slash the UN Budget. And I think a lot of Congressional Republicans are very, very keen to strangle funding to the UN, in response to all the criticism Israel has faced at the UN over Gaza." [my emphasis] (3)
Middle East Eye also has an update on the news:
The blasts began in Lebanon's capital, Beirut, with scores of incidents reported in the southern suburb of Dahiyeh and other areas of the country at about 3.45pm (12.45pm GMT) on Tuesday.
According to footage seen by Middle East Eye, some of the detonations occurred after the pagers went off, prompting their owners to bring them close to their faces or hands to check the screens.
In one clip, CCTV footage appeared to show an explosion inside a man's satchel as he was buying groceries at a vegetable market. …
According to the Reuters news agency, the explosions continued for about an hour after the initial blasts.
Soon after, scores of people began arriving at hospitals, with videos shared on social media showing individuals suffering from facial injuries, missing fingers and gaping wounds near the hips where the pagers were likely worn. (4)
Israel is moving more combat troops to its northern border with Lebanon:
The 98th Division’s redeployment marks a significant transition, leaving the 162nd and 252nd Divisions as the only Israeli forces in Gaza. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has been conducting continuous assessments of the northern situation, although no special instructions have been issued to the home front at this time. …
Russia and Iran were quick to condemn the attack. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said, "Thousands of innocents were harmed in this attack, which aims to provoke a major war in the Middle East." However, many of the casualties were Hezbollah members who reportedly received a "message from the leadership" at the moment of the explosions.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed his regret over the incident in a phone call with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, reaffirming his commitment to efforts aimed at halting Israel's actions in the region. (5)
Additional explosions in Lebanon have been reported on Wednesday.
Amos Harel warns in Haaretz:
When it's been confronted with incidents of this sort over the past 11 months, Hezbollah has always sought a measured response that prevented the situation from spinning out of control. This time, however, there can be no certainty that it will act in the same way. The attack attributed to Israel exposed Hezbollah's weakness and humiliated its leaders. This is not the kind of incident that ends quietly in the Middle East.
The targets were Hezbollah operatives, including senior officials, some of whom were in the organization's headquarters and others who were among civilians. At about 4 P.M. on Tuesday, their pagers and walkie-talkies simultaneously exploded. The blasts occurred mainly in the south Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, and according to reports from Damascus, there were also explosions in the Beqaa Valley and in southern Lebanon. ...
The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was reportedly among those injured in one of the explosions. ...
In the world of cyberwarfare and sabotage, this is known as a "red button" operation, one that is prepared in advance to be activated when necessary, taking the enemy completely by surprise. It's evident that whoever was behind it carried out an extremely professional job. ...
The attack, which Hezbollah attributes to Israel, was a high-profile attack, at the height of a long war. So far it has been rather clear that Iran and Hezbollah want to bleed Israel in the north to help Hamas in the war in Gaza, but without entering a direct and all-out war themselves. [my emphasis] (6)
On WINEP’s early history, see: Benin, Joel (1993): Money, Media and Policy Consensus:The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Middle East Report (MERIP: Middle East Research and Information Project) 180: Jan/Feb 1993. <https://merip.org/1993/01/money-media-and-policy-consensus/> (Accessed: 2024-18-09).
