Aljazeera brings this short early report: (2)
It's important to keep in mind that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government are pursuing a policy of widening the war, which accords with Netanyahu’s priority of keeping the war going as long as possible to stay in office and with his decades-long goal of involving the US in a direct war with Iran.
The US has a real national interest in staying out of a war with Iran. But the Biden Administration’s de facto unconditional support of Israel’s war policies – backed by most Democratic Member of Congress and supported all but unanimously by the Trumpista Republican part with its large, devoted Christian Right voter bloc – very much works against that part of US the national interest.
The UN Director at the International Crisis Group, Richard Gowan, said this week:
“Were Harris to come [to speak at the UN right now], which I think we now think is very unlikely, she would obviously be a great focus of interest,” Gowan added. “But clearly, in the back of everyone’s mind, is going to be…Donald Trump. And I think in a lot of the private conversations around the General Assembly, the number one question will be what will Trump do to the organization?... It’s not pretty. We imagine that he would pull out of a lot of the things he pulled out of before, like the Human Rights Council and Paris Climate pact. We also think that he would slash the UN Budget. And I think a lot of Congressional Republicans are very, very keen to strangle funding to the UN, in response to all the criticism Israel has faced at the UN over Gaza." [my emphasis] (3)
Middle East Eye also has an update on the news:
The blasts began in Lebanon's capital, Beirut, with scores of incidents reported in the southern suburb of Dahiyeh and other areas of the country at about 3.45pm (12.45pm GMT) on Tuesday.Israel is moving more combat troops to its northern border with Lebanon:
According to footage seen by Middle East Eye, some of the detonations occurred after the pagers went off, prompting their owners to bring them close to their faces or hands to check the screens.
In one clip, CCTV footage appeared to show an explosion inside a man's satchel as he was buying groceries at a vegetable market. …
According to the Reuters news agency, the explosions continued for about an hour after the initial blasts.
Soon after, scores of people began arriving at hospitals, with videos shared on social media showing individuals suffering from facial injuries, missing fingers and gaping wounds near the hips where the pagers were likely worn. (4)
The 98th Division’s redeployment marks a significant transition, leaving the 162nd and 252nd Divisions as the only Israeli forces in Gaza. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has been conducting continuous assessments of the northern situation, although no special instructions have been issued to the home front at this time. …Additional explosions in Lebanon have been reported on Wednesday.
Russia and Iran were quick to condemn the attack. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said, "Thousands of innocents were harmed in this attack, which aims to provoke a major war in the Middle East." However, many of the casualties were Hezbollah members who reportedly received a "message from the leadership" at the moment of the explosions.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed his regret over the incident in a phone call with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, reaffirming his commitment to efforts aimed at halting Israel's actions in the region. (5)
Amos Harel warns in Haaretz:
When it's been confronted with incidents of this sort over the past 11 months, Hezbollah has always sought a measured response that prevented the situation from spinning out of control. This time, however, there can be no certainty that it will act in the same way. The attack attributed to Israel exposed Hezbollah's weakness and humiliated its leaders. This is not the kind of incident that ends quietly in the Middle East.Notes:
The targets were Hezbollah operatives, including senior officials, some of whom were in the organization's headquarters and others who were among civilians. At about 4 P.M. on Tuesday, their pagers and walkie-talkies simultaneously exploded. The blasts occurred mainly in the south Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, and according to reports from Damascus, there were also explosions in the Beqaa Valley and in southern Lebanon. ...
The Iranian ambassador to Lebanon was reportedly among those injured in one of the explosions. ...
In the world of cyberwarfare and sabotage, this is known as a "red button" operation, one that is prepared in advance to be activated when necessary, taking the enemy completely by surprise. It's evident that whoever was behind it carried out an extremely professional job. ...
The attack, which Hezbollah attributes to Israel, was a high-profile attack, at the height of a long war. So far it has been rather clear that Iran and Hezbollah want to bleed Israel in the north to help Hamas in the war in Gaza, but without entering a direct and all-out war themselves. [my emphasis] (6)
(1) What we know so far about the deadly pager explosions in Lebanon. DW News YouTube channel 09/1/2024. <https://youtu.be/KEbdZmcIOsI?si=LHq2KXFv1o9AkxvL> (Accessed: 2024-18-09).
On WINEP’s early history, see: Benin, Joel (1993): Money, Media and Policy Consensus:The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Middle East Report (MERIP: Middle East Research and Information Project) 180: Jan/Feb 1993. <https://merip.org/1993/01/money-media-and-policy-consensus/> (Accessed: 2024-18-09).
(2) How were pagers turned into bombs against Hezbollah members? Aljazeera English YouTube channel 09/18/2024. <https://youtu.be/jFoHOs40NGM?si=pdJpiEFj4ZloPDxK /> (Accessed: 2024-18-09).
(3) Rozen, Laura (2024): U.S. pre-elections diplomatic limbo. Diplomatic 09/17/2024. <https://diplomatic.substack.com/p/us-pre-elections-limbo> (Accessed: 2024-18-09).
(4) Lebanon deadly pager blasts: What we know so far. Middle East Eye 09/18/2024. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/lebanon-pager-blasts-what-we-know-so-far> (Accessed: 2024-18-09).
(5) Yehoshua, Yossi & Ben Kimon, Elisha (2024): After pager blasts, 98th Division primed to leave Gaza and redeploy to northern border. Ynet News 09/18/2024. <https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skozoeoa0> (Accessed: 2024-18-09).
(6) Harel, Amos (2024): Pager Blasts Humiliated Hezbollah, but They Won't Win Any Wars for Israel. Haaretz 09/18/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-09-18/ty-article/.premium/pager-blasts-humiliated-hezbollah-but-they-wont-win-any-wars-for-israel/00000192-01b7-daa2-abfe-47ff7e930000> (Accessed: 2024-18-09).
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