Waiting for a new Israel-Lebanon War to begin

The news about terrorist attacks and military actions tend to grab the headlines.

But there are two key things to remember in the current situation in which Israel is clearly trying to start a full-blown war with Lebanon: Benjamin Netanyahu wants to draw the US directly into a broader Middle East war including against Iran; and, Netanyahu wants to see Donald Trump as the US President again. Israel’s actions in the roughly six weeks before the US Presidential election can only be understood within that framework.

Here is an Aljazeera report from today: (1)

FRANCE 24 also reports on the terrorist pager attacks in Lebanon: (2)

And, in case you might be thinking hopefully about the situation there de-escalating, here’s John Mearsheimer delivering a downer message – and unfortunately, he’s very often right about these things: (3)

(On the other military mess in which the US is deeply involved, Mearsheimer notes at the start of this interview that apparently Joe Biden decided to back off on an escalatory measure in the Ukraine War that has been intensely discussed lately. So maybe – maybe – Biden isn’t operating completely on cruise control on these things.)

On Israel, Mearsheimer’s comments here are (uncharacteristically) a bit confusing as to whether Israel wanted to coerce Hezbollah into accepting a ceasefire or intends to invade. But he emphasizes that Netanyahu very much wants to drag the US into a direct war with Iran. “The Israelis have bee trying to make that war happen for a long time,” he stresses.

He also notes, “In a battle of wills between the Biden Administration and Netanyahu, Netanyahu wins nine out of ten times.”

And, as Meron Rapoport observes, Israeli isn’t done with its war on Gaza civilians yet:

Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant remain tight-lipped about the real goals of the [planned upcoming] operation, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, as well as other ministers on the far right, declare them openly. Here, they cite a program that the “Forum of Reserve Commanders and Fighters,” spearheaded by Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, proposed just a few weeks ago: ordering all residents of northern Gaza to leave within a week, before imposing a full siege on the area, including shutting off all supplies of water, food, and fuel, until those who remain surrender or die of starvation.

Other prominent Israelis, in recent months, have also called on the military to carry out mass extermination in northern Gaza. “Remove the entire civilian population from the north, and whoever remains there will be lawfully sentenced as a terrorist and subjected to a process of starvation or extermination,” Prof. Uzi Rabi, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University, elaborated in a radio interview on Sept. 15. And in August, according to a report in Ynet, government ministers had already started pressuring Netanyahu to “cleanse” northern Gaza of its inhabitants. [my emphasis] (4)

This is already by far the longest war Israel has ever had since its founding. Even the War of Independence of 1948-49 lasted just under six months.

Notes:

(1) Can Israel fight on two fronts? Inside Story. Aljazeera English YouTube channel 09/19/2024. <https://youtu.be/pQGfwRIhzFw?si=TDDJwrwkYthqOrCm> (Accessed: 2024-19-09).

(2) Lebanon pager explosions: Long-term operation leading up to attack FRANCE 24 English. FRANCE 24 English 09/19/2024. <https://youtu.be/wbIOwfZiThk?si=iOt1HYymS57Z5Tj_> (Accessed: 2024-19-09).

(3) Prof. John Mearsheimer: Is Israel on the Brink? Judge Napolitano-Judging Freedom YouTube channel 09/19/2024. <https://www.youtube.com/live/juNa3vgXIeU?si=OXIJ01fwzIU5dgE4> (Accessed: 2024-19-09).

(4) Rapoport, Meron (2024): A plan to liquidate northern Gaza is gaining steam. +972 Magazine 09/17/2024. <https://www.972mag.com/northern-gaza-liquidation-scenario-eiland-rabi/> (Accessed: 2024-19-09).