"I'm here tonight to deliver an urgent warning to Jewish Americans and to friends of Israel all around the world, " Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump said on Friday adding that evangelical Christians who support Israel love it more than Jewish people in New York, sometimes. "If we continue down this path for four more years with Kamala, Israel will be faced not only with an attack but with total annihilation." …Allowing Netanyahu to address a joint session of Congress in July to make what was essentially a campaign speech for Donald Trump was a genuinely dumb move. This is a classic example of the Democrats’ chronic difficulty in fighting for their own side.
"You have a big protector in me. You don't have a protector on the other side," he said. "Anybody who's Jewish and loves being Jewish and loves Israel, is a fool if they vote for a Democrat... You should have your head examined." ...
Trump complained that only 29% of Jews supported him in the 2020 elections, which he lost to [Biden], despite "giving" Israel the Golan Heights, the Abraham Accord and the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital along with billions and billions of dollars. He claimed polls now show he has 40% support of American Jews, but 60% remaining percent still support the Democrats, whom he called the enemy.
"You didn't treat yourselves well," he told the Jewish crowd. "I wasn't treated properly by the voters who happen to be Jewish," he said. "If I don't win these elections, the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that." [my emphasis] (1)
Just a reminder, the fundamentalist Christian Zionists like those support the Christian United for Israel group “support” constant war for Israel because they think it will bring on what the see as the blessed day of Jesus’ return which they believe will be prefaced by ridding the world of Jews, most by being killed in a big, bloody war after which the few remaining Jews convert to Christianity. So, when the world is finally rid of Jews, in their worldview Jesus can finally come again.
Cultish fanaticism makes for really bad politics.
Deutsche Welle has a report describing the terrorizing effect of Israel’s exploding-pager attack: (2)
One background implication of that report is that Israel is not the only actor in that conflict who is paying attention to the fact of the Presidential election in the US. Presumably neither the Hezbollah leaders nor or the Iranians would think Donald Trump would be more likely to restrain Israel than Kamala Harris.
But the world doesn’t entirely revolve around US politics. With Israel positioning its forces to facilitate an invasion of Lebanon, Hezbollah and its allies have to consider which actions are more likely to be effective against such an attack, including what proactive measures they need to take and when. And they will also try to retain whatever element of surprise they may be able to use to their advantage. (3)
Israel has carefully cultivated an image of being militarily invincible. Understandably so. But the reality is much more complicated. As IDF Major General (reserve) Yitzhak Brik explains, “Because the IDF's high command slashed the ground forces by 66 percent compared to what they were 20 years ago, it doesn't have enough troops to remain for long period of time in any territory it conquers, nor does it have troops to relieve those who are fighting.” (my emphasis) (4)
Brik joins other analysts in noting that despite the exceptionally brutal war on Gaza civilians, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), they have not eliminated Hamas as a military force in Gaza and Hamas remains in control of whatever functioning government is left in the Gaza Strip. The Hamas tunnel system is reportedly still largely intact.
The IDF has no way of ending [Hamas’] rule, even if the organization is weaker than it was in the past. The continued fighting has lost any purpose, and the war of attrition is destroying everything good in Israel – its economy, its international relations, its social resilience and its fighters' motivation. Many reservists are refusing to be called up again and again.But the Times of Israel featured this headline on September 19: (5)
Nevertheless, ignoring these grave facts, Netanyahu, Gallant and Halevi intend on launching a ground war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Any such war is likely to deal Israel a mortal, terminal blow. The IDF, which failed to destroy Hamas, certainly won't be able to destroy Hezbollah, which is hundreds of times more powerful than Hamas. [my emphasis]
This headline illustrates how empty the Biden Administration’s pretense that if is trying to restrain Israel’s actions have become. The only way the US can persuade Israel to stop attacks on Lebanon (“halt counter-strikes”) is to actually start cutting off US arms supplies. Otherwise, Netanyahu’s government would be foolish at this point to regard such statements as anything but meaningless PR. And there is no reason to believe that Biden would actually agree to do that while he’s still in office. His Israel policy is running on cruise-control that is set to Always Back Israel’s Actions Unconditionally. (I would love to see the Administration prove me wrong.)
Brik continues:
A senior U.S. official, who is more aware than they are of Israel's true situation, warned against an all-out war with Hezbollah, saying that any escalation could lead to catastrophic and unforeseen results. He also said a full-scale war could be avoided, but if it did erupt, then both sides would pay a heavy price. Thousands would die, maybe tens of thousands. And infrastructure would be badly damaged.There is every reason to think that Netanyahu’s is also committed to the official program of his government coalition, permanent Israeli control in all of “Eretz Israel,” aka, from the (Jordan) river to the (Mediterranean) sea.
Moreover, he said, Israel won't be able to easily destroy Hezbollah and apparently won't even achieve most of its goals. It would be an extensive war, and many people on both sides would die. Residents of Israel's north wouldn't be able to return home quickly, he continued, and any such war would in any case end with a deal whose outlines are already clear. And that, he concluded, is why the Americans are trying to reach such a deal now. [my emphasis]
The shortage of IDF personnel given Netanyahu’s expansive aims is illustrated by this ugly practice:
No Israeli of conscience could fail to be shocked by the fact that the defense establishment is using asylum seekers from Africa to perform various tasks in the Gaza Strip in exchange for assistance in obtaining permanent residency in Israel.This is why the IDF’s preferred self-description as “the world’s most moral army” has become such a sick joke.
What this means is clear: Israel is creating its own version of Russia's Wagner Group. In Russia, Wagner was a mercenary army comprised of thousands of prisoners who, in exchange for very dangerous military service, received a pardon and were freed from jail. In Israel, this criminal extortion is aimed at the weakest segment of society, asylum seekers from Africa: Carry out life-threatening tasks for an army that isn't yours, in a war that isn't yours, and you'll be given permanent residency.
This report comes on top of the fact that the Israel Defense Forces is using Palestinian civilians who are snatched up randomly to search tunnels in Gaza. These miserable Palestinians are sent into the tunnels with their hands tied, cameras strapped to their bodies, to "clear" tunnels in place of dogs from the Oketz Unit, many of which have been killed during the war.
At least one Palestinian has been killed doing this; it is virtually a suicide mission. "Our lives are more important than their lives," one IDF officer said. The report also said that the high command is aware of this practice. [my emphasis] (6)
Meanwhile, Israel’s current actions don’t look like restraint:
You might not have noticed because this time there was no press conference, but the IDF overnight between Thursday and Friday pulled off the second largest official attack on Hezbollah of the year.Gideon Levy has been a critic of Israeli policies in the occupied territories and the region for a long time. His latest evaluations have been particularly pointed. In this one, for instance, he reminds us that for all the criticism of Netanyahu (whose popularity has actually risen considerably from its low point earlier this year), there is widespread support among the Israeli public for his actual war policies:
The air force's destruction of 100 Hezbollah rocket launchers and 1,000 rockets, mostly in southern Lebanon is not just another counter strike, but has strategic consequences for Hezbollah's capabilities.
A "normal" Israeli attack takes out dozens or fewer rockets. (7)
Israel is turning, with alarming speed, into a country that lives on blood. The daily crimes of the occupation are already less relevant. Over the past year, a new reality of mass killing and crimes of an entirely different scale has emerged. We are in a genocidal reality; the blood of tens of thousands of people has flowed.That’s a grim view from someone who has been pleading for many years for a pragmatic, realistic peace policy for Israel.
This is the time that all Israelis should ask themselves if they are willing to live in a country that lives on blood. Just don't say that there is no choice – of course there is – but first we must ask whether we are even prepared to live like this.
Are we, the Israelis, willing to live in the only country in the world whose existence is based on blood? The only vision that is widespread in Israel now is to live from one war to another war, from one bloodletting to the next, from massacre to massacre, with intervals spaced as widely as possible.
No other vision is on the table. Hopeful people promise long intervals, while the right promises a permanent blood-soaked reality: war, mass killing, systematic violation of international law, a pariah state, repeating in an endless cycle. [my emphasis] (8)
And as of September 19, he is not optimistic about the chances of pragmatic restraint by Netanyahu’s government:
We now also have it in writing, in a thousand exploding copies: Israel wants a war, a big one. There is no other way of understanding the glittering and exploding Hollywood-style operation in Lebanon other than the transmission of a determined pager message to the enemy, revealing Israel's true intentions. One thousand explosions with 3,000 injuries are an invitation to war. It will come. ...Levy isn’t giving up hope yet for avoiding a more massive conflict with Lebanon and Iran. But the window of opportunity to restrain Netanyahu’s war plans is obviously closing rapidly.
It's inconceivable that after a yearlong failed war in Gaza, which has not attained any goal or chalked up any achievement for Israel other than satisfying a lust for vengeance, Israel wants another. It's inconceivable that after Israel has paid and will continue to pay such a fateful price in the wake of the war in Gaza, it desires more war. It's unimaginable, but it's a fact. …
Just like the glorious assassinations which never contributed anything, so are the pager heroics, nothing but a cinematic gimmick. Other than the drool shed in TV studios by people who salivate over every dead or wounded Arab, Israel's situation on the day after is worse than it was on the day before this heroic operation, even if people gave out sweets in Israel.
War in the north moved closer the other day, at an alarming speed. It will be the most preventable war in the country's history. It could be its biggest bloodbath as well. When Hezbollah explicitly states that it will stop shooting as soon as a cease-fire deal is signed with Hamas, and Israel is unwilling to stop the war in Gaza under any circumstances, it is inviting Hezbollah to attack it. That's what a war of choice looks like. [my emphasis]
Notes:
(1) Edelson, Daniel & Eichner, Itamar (2024): Trump says if he loses the elections it will be the fault of Jews. Ynet News 09/20/2024. <https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hkk00f59pa> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(2) Hezbollah leader Nasrallah: 'Israel has declared war on the Lebanese people'. DW News YouTube channel 09/20/2024. <https://youtu.be/o2CAqeCPRBs?si=nrhAosUznWdzu_W7> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(3) 'Very dangerous moment': Israel, Hezbollah miscalculation 'could bring about terrible regional war'. FRANCE 24 English YouTube channel 09/20/2024. <https://youtu.be/5ti778kETho?si=TjqtPEruxPS0UAIb> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(4) Brik, Yitzhak (2024): The Israeli Army Failed to Destroy Hamas. It Certainly Can't Defeat Hezbollah. Haaretz 09/17/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-09-17/ty-article-opinion/.premium/the-israeli-army-failed-to-destroy-hamas-it-certainly-cant-defeat-hezbollah/00000191-fc1d-d9b4-a5b1-fdfdc3570000> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(5) Times of Israel 09/19/2024. <https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-19-2024/> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(6) Editorial (2024): Recruiting African Asylum Seekers for Gaza War Is New Despicable Low for Israel. Haaretz 09/16/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/editorial/2024-09-16/ty-article/recruiting-african-asylum-seekers-for-gaza-war-is-new-despicable-low-for-israel/00000191-f729-db99-adfb-f7eb00c80000> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(7) Bob, Yonah Jeremy (2024): With little fanfare, IDF pulls off 2nd largest official attack on Hezbollah of year – analysis. Jerusalem Post 09/20/2024. <https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-820990> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(8) Levy, Gideon (2024): Israelis Must Ask Themselves if They're Willing to Live in a Country That Lives on Blood. Haaretz 09/15/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-09-15/ty-article-opinion/.premium/israelis-must-ask-themselves-if-theyre-willing-to-live-in-a-country-that-lives-on-blood/00000191-f169-d962-a1b5-ff6f32e10000> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
(9) Levy, Gideon (2024): 'Hollywood' Pager Attack Sent a Clear Message: Israel Wants Another Redundant War. Haaretz 09/19/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-09-19/ty-article-opinion/.premium/hollywood-pager-attack-sent-a-clear-message-israel-wants-another-redundant-war/00000192-067a-dc60-a5fb-ef7efbdb0000> (Accessed: 20-09-2024).
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