What’s up in post-Maduro Venezuela these days?

This is a helpful conference discussion about Venezuela from the Quincy Institute, founded by Andrew Bacevich and an excellent cite for foreign policy information and analysis. (1)

The participants talk about the fact that Venezuela has been reasonably stable since the US kidnapped Venezuela’s then-President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in January.

Fracisco Rodriguez of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) notes that US sanctions have been rolled back. But Venezuelan revenue for oil sales still have to go through the Venezuela Government Deposit Fund the Trump regime set up after kidnapping Maduro. But the national state-owned oil company PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela) has a lot of flexibility in transactions, which Rodriguez expects will likely to provide new investment inside Venezuela that will strengthen the economy.

The sanctions on Interim President Delcy Rodriguez have also been lifted. From the BBC:

Rodríguez, a close ally of Maduro who served as his vice-president, had been placed on the sanctions list in 2018, with the US accusing her of undermining democracy.

She was sworn in as interim president by Venezuela's National Assembly, which is dominated by Maduro loyalists, days after the US raid and has been described by US President Donald Trump as "a terrific person". (2)

Having Donald Trump describe you as "a terrific person" is a real stigma!

Julia Buxton of Oxford Analytica on the panel suggests the current government is looking to reinvigorate the politics of Chavismo, which she distinguishes from Madurismo. She also notes the cocaine traffic, which the Trump regime used as an excuse for his mini-invasion, is actually cheap these days, unlike the 1970s when many of US popular impression on narcotrafficking were established. The Forever War On Drugs that the Nixon Administration began will surely be remembered as on of the more destructive delusions in which the US has indulged.

But Orlando Perez emphasizes that the basic structure of Maduro’s regime seems to be stable. He notes that some of the most senior military leaders have been removed. But their replacements were figures that apparently support the basic structure of Maduro’s government, so that it’s “continuity, not really reform.” He also notes that Trump’s general policies in Latin America are creating new political opportunities for left populists in the region going forward.

Venezuela has the longtime blessing and curse of being a petrostate with a huge part of its economic directly dependent on the vagaries of the world oil market. Thanks to the Trump regime’s Iran War, Venezuela stands go get a big boost in its national income, as Fracisco Rodriguez noted. I expect there will be some very interesting developments with the Venezuela Government Deposit Fund Trump’s government controls. The grift always has the highest priority with the Orange Man and his cronies. It unimaginable that this crew will be scrupulous in managing that fund for the benefit of Venezuela and its people. As Trump himself periodically blurts out, the points of wars and “military operations” against petrostates is to take the oil. By which he mainly means, take the money.

As Trump himself said just this week in the speech about the Iran War that sent oil prices soaring: “We could just take their oil. But, you know, I’m not sure that the people in our country have the patience to do that, which is unfortunate. You know, they want to see it end. If we stayed there, I, you know, I’d prefer just to take the oil. We could do it so easily.” (3)

As the BBC reports:

In the months since Maduro's removal from office, several high-level US delegations have travelled to Venezuela to discuss how the US could expand its access to Venezuela's oil and mineral wealth.

Critics of Rodríguez have, however, bemoaned the fact that there has been little talk of democratic elections.

Opposition leader María Corina Machado, who has been living in exile since leaving Venezuela to collect the Nobel Peace Prize she was awarded in December, met Rubio on Tuesday.

Despite having been sidelined by Trump in favour of Rodríguez, Machado struck an optimistic note, calling the meeting "excellent" and praising the US secretary of state's "dedication to democracy, freedom and Venezuelans' well-being".

An obvious question that corporate media will be reluctant to ask is, if Marco Rubio and other advocates for the rightwing, anti-Cuba and anti-Venezuela voting bloc are okay with Delcy Rodriguez’ regime, which is actually a direct continuation of Maduro’s regime, just how bad could Maduro’s regime have been?

And, more to the point on the international law front, how much of a security threat to the US can Venezuela really be, if the US was able to conspire with senior members of Maduro’s government who were willing to have the US kidnap and imprison him with minimal military resistance? Compare that to Iran’s preparations for the current US-Israel war against them, in which they are able to do massive damage to the world economy and directly to Israel, US bases in the regions, and other Middle Eastern governments who allied with the US and Israel.

Notes:

(1) What is the New Paradigm of US-Venezuela Relations Post-Maduro? Quincy Institute YouTube channel 04/02/2026. <https://www.youtube.com/live/KDErgdUE_PE> (Accessed: 2026-04-03).

(2) Buschschlüter, Vanessa (2026): US lifts sanctions on Venezuelan interim leader Delcy Rodríguez. BBC News 07/02/2026. <https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cje4l9de0d1o> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(3) Breaking News. The New Republic 04/02/2026. <https://newrepublic.com/post/208535/white-house-accidentally-easter-lunch-trump-speech> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).