Europe and the Iran War

Even European commentators still often use the tired old line about how disunited Europe is. But what looks like disunity can also be tag-team diplomacy.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski was publicly critical of the US-Israeli war against Iran a couple of weeks after they attacked Iran. (1) When a foreign minister says there was no “direct threat” in this context as Sikorski did, he’s saying that it’s an illegal war of aggression. The US State Department doesn’t seem very keen these days on this boring “diplomacy” business. But most of the rest of the world is still practicing it.

Poland has also “rejected calls from the United States to deploy an MIM-104 Patriot air defense system to the Middle East, where it could be used to counter Iranian missiles and drones. Warsaw has said that the weapons are needed to deter Russian aggression in Europe.” (2)

As a country sharing a border with Russia, Poland has to take seriously the kind of standard, routine military games that go on there:

Poland sits on the border with Ukraine, and Russian drones attacking targets in western Ukraine have come perilously close to detonating across the border. Poland also borders Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, the hub of its Baltic Fleet. Poland and Lithuania have each played a significant role in preparing for war in the “Suwalki Gap,” the narrow strip of land between Poland and Lithuania separating Kaliningrad from Russian-allied Belarus and a likely flashpoint for a future land war in Europe. In preparation for such a conflict, Poland and the three Baltic states have also withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention banning anti-personnel landmines.

Last September, NATO and Polish forces intercepted multiple Russian drones that had violated Polish airspace. At the time, a German-operated Patriot system was even placed on high alert. However, Polish F-16 Fighting Falcons and Dutch F-35 Lightning IIs were credited with downing the Russian unmanned aerial systems (UAS).

With European NATO countries concerned about their own borders as well as those of Ukraine, they are also diplomatically stressing the importance of international law, especially as regarding borders and wars of aggression. And there are at least a lot of international law experts who say bluntly:

“The initiation of the campaign was a clear violation of the United Nations Charter, and the conduct of United States forces since, as well as statements made by senior government officials, raise serious concerns about violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law, including potential war crimes,” said the letter.

While the letter is focused on the conduct of the US government, it also denounced the Iranian government’s crackdown on dissent and its “ongoing unlawful strikes on civilian infrastructure using explosive weapons in densely populated areas”. (3)

The legal experts highlighted the loose lips of the US Secretary of “War” Pete Hegseth, too:

We collectively affirm the importance of equal application of international law to all, including countries that hold themselves out as global leaders. Recent statements from senior U.S. government officials describing the rules governing military engagement as “stupid” and prioritizing “lethality” over “legality” are profoundly alarming and dangerously short-sighted. These claims, particularly in combination with the observable conduct of U.S. forces, are harming the international legal order and the system of international law that we have devoted our lives to promoting. (4)

Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Portugal are currently playing major roles in the transition to what is looking more and more like a coming post-NATO future, not least because they have the six largest armies of the current NATO members. And Britain and France are both nuclear powers who will have to play a more prominent role now in the nuclear deterrence system in relation to Russia, especially as the Trump regime follows such a Russia-friendly direction as it is now doing.

Britain as the long-tine staunch ally of the US, even on the Iraq War, has been taking a cuatious position on the Iran War. They are sending military assistance to various oil monarchies being directly attacked by Iran, i.e., Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said on Monday the UK is "not going to get dragged into this war" but would continue to defend its interests and allies in the region.

The defence secretary [John Healey] has been visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain as the government announced the deployment of further systems, and associated teams, for the nations and for Kuwait. …

Speaking on Monday, Starmer reiterated that UK troops will not be deployed on the ground in Iran.

"This is not our war and we're not going to get drawn into it," he said while responding to a question from reporters.

The UK previously gave permission for the US to use British military bases for "defensive" strikes on Iranian missile sites after Starmer denied a request for the use of UK bases for the initial US-Israeli strikes against Iran in February. (5)

France: President Emmanuel Macron told the Orange US President that he was bonkers if he thought opening the Strait of Hormuz with military operations is feasible. Although he phrased it more diplomatically: “it is never the option we have chosen and we consider it unrealistic.”

Macron said such an operation would take excessive time and expose those crossing the strait to "coastal threats," particularly from Iran's Revolutionary Guards, "who possess significant resources as well as ballistic missiles." "This can only be done in concert with Iran," the French leader added, calling first for a ceasefire and a return to negotiations. (6)

But Macron also announced that France was sending a nuclear aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean declaring it was for defensive purposes. And it has been participating in some defensive operations as a way to get up-to-date on drone warfare: “French warplanes and air defense systems are currently deployed in countries such as the United Arab Emirates to fend off Iranian drone counterattacks.” (7)

Now that the US has all but formally bailed on its NATO commitments, the European powers have to concentrate more on a new credible defensive posture against possible Russian aggression – although there is no real sign that Russia has any such intentions for the immediate future.

Germany: Germany has spent decades diplomatically investing itself in having good relations with Israel. But that goal is in conflict with their official commitment to international law, which they take far more seriously than either the Biden or Trump Administration did, especially when it came to the Gaza genocide. In practice, it is diplomatically very awkward for Germany to take a direct position of opposition to Israel, although in this case Israel and the US are engaged are engaged in an illegal “aggressive war” in the sense of the Nuremburg Trials.

Spain: Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been more blunt in his rejection of any part in the US-Israeli war on Iran. His government has refused to use US bases in Spain to conduct acts of war against Iran, and later expanded that the banning even US overflights for war missions. (9)

Italy: Italy’s current rightwing government under Georgia Meloni does not take the pro-Russian tilt that various other European rightwing parties – including her own coalition partner party, the Liga – have been taking. And Italy also seems to be taking very seriously the current challenge of building a European deterrent not dependent on the US.

Italy has denied the use of an airbase in Sicily to US military planes carrying weapons for the war in Iran after the US did not follow the required authorisation procedure.

A source at the Italian defence ministry confirmed a report in Corriere della Sera that “some US bombers” had been due to land at Sigonella – one of seven US navy bases in Italy – before heading to the Middle East, but that use of the base had been denied because the US sought authorisation to land only while the aircraft were already en route to Sicily. …

In Italy, where there is a deep-rooted anti-war culture, opinion polls consistently show very strong opposition to the conflict and strong dislike towards Trump. The unpopularity of Trump in Italy has also started to erode the popularity of Meloni, who is ideologically in tune with the US president and has established good working relations with him.

Opposition parties have for weeks been urging the government to block the US from using Italy’s bases for involvement in the Middle East conflict. (10)

This may look like confusion. But for countries that practice more complicated diplomacy than the Incredible Hulk version - “Me drop big bombs. Big bombs go boom,” they can coordinate the national position in ways that maximize their collective political influence on US and Russian policy.

Apologies to the Incredible Hulk, btw. The Big Green Guy may have a limited vocabulary. But he has a much better grasp on reality than the Big Orange Guy.

Cover of Hulk: Smash Everything #1 (2025) Image by Adam Kubert.

Notes:

(1) Knapp, Ferdinand (2026): No ‘direct threat’ from Iran to Europe, US before war, Polish foreign minister says. Politico EU 03/12/2026. <https://www.politico.eu/article/no-direct-threat-from-iran-eu-europe-us-before-war-began-poland-foreign-minister/> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(2) Suciu, Peter (2026): This NATO Member Won’t Send Patriot Launchers to Help America Against Iran. The National Interest 04/03/2026 <https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/this-nato-member-wont-send-patriot-launchers-help-america-against-iran-ps-040326> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(3) Asem, Sondos (2026): Over 100 US-based legal experts declare Trump's strikes on Iran as possible war crimes. Middle East Eye 04/03/20206. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/over-100-us-based-legal-experts-say-trumps-war-iran-may-amount-war-crimes> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(4) Letter of over 100 international law experts on Iran war. Just Security 04/02/2026. <https://www.justsecurity.org/135423/professors-letter-international-law-iran-war/> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(5) Smith, Cachella et al (2026): More UK troops to be sent to Middle East, defence secretary announces. BBC News 03/31/2026. <https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7vq76g45rvo> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(6) Macron says military operation to liberate Strait of Hormuz 'unrealistic'. Le Monde/AFP 04/02/2026. <https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/04/02/macron-says-military-operation-to-liberate-strait-of-hormuz-unrealistic_6752051_4.html> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(7) Kavali, Laura (2026): Politico EU 03/30/2026). <https://www.politico.eu/article/how-the-war-ukraine-iran-made-france-rethink-military-plans/> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(8) More, Rache & Mackenzie, James (2026): German Chancellor Merz says he has doubts over Iran war aims. Reuters 03/27/2026. (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(9) Brugen, Stephen (2026): Spain closes airspace to US military over Iran war, widening rift with US. Guardian 03/30/2026. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/30/spain-closes-airspace-to-us-military-over-iran-war-widening-rift-with-us> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(10) Giuffrida, Angela (2026): Italy denies use of Sicily airbase to US planes carrying weapons for Iran war. Guardian 03/31/2026. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/31/italy-denies-sicily-airbase-us-planes-carrying-weapons-iran-war> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).