Tuesday, October 16, 2018

What does a democracy under internal threat look like?

This week's Profil (15.10.2018) has a story, "Abrisshirne" by Martin Staudinger and Robert Treichler, that I found really irritating. Which in this case, turned out to be a good thing, because it made me concentrate on the points they are making.

The topic is whether there is a world trend toward similar populist-authoritarian movements and governments. The title pages feature phots of Rodrigo Dutere (Phillipines), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela), Matteo Salvini (Interior Minister and de facto head of government in Italy), Viktor Orbán (Hungary), Hein-Christian Strache (Vice Chancellor of Austria and head of the far-right FPÖ), Donald Trump (of course!), Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey), and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, aka, AMLO (President-elect of Mexcio).

Putting AMLO in that list is pretty silly. he won the Presidential election in July and takes office December 1. Why he was included in that particular group as part of the "Populist International," as the caption called them is a mystery. I didn't follow the campaign closely, but my impression is that it was more a conventional center-left campaign rather than distinctly populist. More importantly, he served for five years as Governor of Mexico City (Federal District of Mexico) and built a reputation as an good executive who fought corruption. How that makes him a Duterte or an Erdoğan, I have no idea. The only thing the article itself says about AMLO is that he's an "erratic populist." Erratic? Why? It's sloppy at best to lump him into this group.

Nicolás Maduro can legitimately be called a populist. But, to put it generously, the constant American polemics against Maduro and Hugo Chávez before him as dictators was always overblown. Prior to 2016, international observers of Venezuelan elections under both Chávez and Maduro, including the Carter Center, regarded their national elections as legitimate with strong safeguards against fraud. The US is openly engaged in a regime change effort against the current Venezuelan government and Trump has threaned to militarily invade the country. And the US government always become intensely concerned about human rights and democracy in countries that it is preparing to bomb and kill lots of their people. Also, not at all incidentally, Venezuela has the largest known oil reserves of any country in the world. Anyone who think that hasn't been the overriding concern of American policy toward Venezuela is disregarding the entire history of US dealings with Venezuela and the rest of Latin America. Venezuela is a petrostate heavily hit for years by falling oil prices and facing a protracted period of civil disorder that makes it particularly difficult to compare Venezuela's situation in 2018 with any of the other country's whose leaders feature in the Profil rouges' gallery.

But Staudinger and Treichler do ask their readers to think more closely about just what features of a government make it democratic versus not-so-democratic. For instance, they point to previous worries about apathy among voters in liberal democracies, and note that voter participation has been rising. Because of the interest generated by the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Without diving into the voting numbers here, it's a valid point that needs to be considered when we look at the antidemocratic trends their article highlights.

Don't be superficial about it, in other words.

Unfortunately, the reader doesn't come out from reading the article with any real guidelines on how to go about making that judgment.

The EU has started a formal review of the status of democracy in the member states Poland and Hungary. The EU does have a variety of standards for a country to qualify for EU membership, including things like democratic elections, a stable rule of law including politically independent police and courts, recognition of basic civil liberties and human rights, equal voting rights for all citizens. The EU also has standards for business law and regulatory practices. Unfortunately, after the 2008 financial crisis, the EU was far more focused on enforcing bad neoliberal economic policies than they have so far shown about enforcing democratic standards on member states.

The very legitimate concerns that have been raised about Poland and Hungary have particularly to do with the independence of the judicial system and whether the election system has been rigged so that the ruling party in practice cannot be voted out of office. Freedom of the press is also a major concern in both countries.

Some of these considerations are region- and country-specific. For instance, in the United States, public television receives relatively little public money. And the major news outlets are also not publicly funded and are generally businesses and some nonprofits. Governmental actions clearly aimed at punishing or restricting the functioning of independent, i.e., non-govwernmental, news operations raise real concerns about inerference with press freedom. But the federal government deciding not to financially support public TV, while that may be a bad decision, would likely not significantly reduce news coverage of public affairs.

The situation in Europe is different. Publicly-funded news media, organizationally structured to be independent of day-to-day political interference, are a major source of public news. The BBC in Britain is generally seen as the model of this approach. Other such public news operations include ARD and ZDF in Germany and ORF in Austria. Drastically reducing their public funding or trying to turn them into partisan outlets would negatively affect the availability of professional, independent news available to citizens.

A different situation is presented by Latin American countries like Argentina in which news media is broadly in the hands of oligarchs and often present news with a strong partisan-political slant. In that situation, a center-left government that uses public media outlets for news and documentaries with a viewpoint friendly to, or at least not hostile to, the elected government couldn't be said in itself to suppress press freedom. Independent public news organizations on the BBC model would improve news coverage and expand freedom of the press in those situations.

A final observation on comparing far-right political movements is that looking at international connections and interactions between those groups and parties. Far-right parties in EU countries interact on an individual basis with one another. And there is an umbrella European party represented in the European Parliament that connects some of those parties in a more formal way. And Putin's Russia is actively encouraging the far-right populist parties in an effort to undermine the EU.

[01/24/2018: Updated for clarity.]

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