Gaza Ceasefire? Maybe. But the possibility for it falling through is high.

Daniel Levy appears on Democracy Now! with Jeremy Scahill and Muhammad Shehada to discuss the Gaza ceasefire that may or may not get signed between now and Trump’s Inauguration. (1)

Qasim Rashid also gives us a snapshot of the current moment in this maybe-ceasefire:

Yesterday [Wednesday], Israel and Hamas announced a ceasefire agreement that promised to end Israel’s 16 month siege on Gaza and secure the release of dozens of hostages. No sooner was this deal announced, but the Israeli military viciously bombed civilian tents and a residential building in central Gaza, one in which disabled children were seeking safety, killing at least 77 more Palestinians. Adding to the injustice, and as has happened so many times, the deal seems to already have unraveled as Israel has furthermore delayed a cabinet vote, accusing Hamas of creating a “last-minute crisis.” (2)

He also gives a background on previous negotiations and the pattern of Israeli sabotage of them that has so often pursued.

Hamas has affirmed its commitment to ceasefire, stating it had upheld all terms outlined by the mediators. Meanwhile, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly accused Hamas of thwarting the deal, he refuses to identify what Hamas allegedly did. This isn’t the first time Netanyahu has obstructed progress on a ceasefire or hostage deal. In fact, the receipts show this is part of a disturbing pattern, and it is a disgrace the Biden administration continues to fall for it while innocent people continue to suffer and die.

Chris Hedges also gives a recap of the previous diplomatic efforts repeatedly torpedoed by Israel. He takes a particularly jaded view of the current situation – not without reason:

Israel, going back decades, has played a duplicitous game. It signs a deal with the Palestinians that is to be implemented in phases. The first phase gives Israel what it wants — in this case the release of the Israeli hostages in Gaza — but Israel habitually fails to implement subsequent phases that would lead to a just and equitable peace. It eventually provokes the Palestinians with indiscriminate armed assaults to retaliate, defines a Palestinian response as a provocation and abrogates the ceasefire deal to reignite the slaughter.

If this latest three-phase ceasefire deal is ratified — and there is no certainty that it will be by Israel — it will, I expect, be little more than a presidential inauguration bombing pause. Israel has no intention of halting its merry-go-round of death.

The Israeli cabinet has delayed a vote on the ceasefire proposal while it continues to pound Gaza. At least 81 Palestinians have been killed in the last 24 hours. (3)

Peter Beinart late in November reviewed Trump’s Israel policy from his first term and looked at the group of hardline pro-Israel team he had already assembled, making this prediction for his second term:

In the weeks and months to come, it’s likely that Trump will criticize Israel’s leaders, or its wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and that the media—ever alert to stories that play against type—will warn that Netanyahu’s days of blank-check US support may be coming to an end. Don’t fall for it. For a Republican Party now defined by ethnonationalism, ardent support for Israel is as foundational as hostility to non-white immigration to the US. Trump may waiver in his support for Israel. But his presidency will not. [my emphasis]

Notes:

(1) Daniel Levy, Muhammad Shehada, Jeremy Scahill on Ceasefire Deal, Trump's Role & Palestine's Future. Democracy Now! YouTube channel 01/16/2025. <https://youtu.be/aULNgLFlEiE?si=L8DHaHUxpOawubqa> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(2) Rashid, Qasim (2025): "Ceasefire" Deal As Israel Keeps Bombing Gaza. Let’s Address This (Substack) 01/16/2025. <https://www.qasimrashid.com/p/ceasefire-deal-as-israel-keeps-bombing> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(3) The Ceasefire Charade. The Chris Hedges Report 01/16/2025. <https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/the-ceasefire-charade> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(4) Trump’s Israel Instincts Don’t Matter. Jewish Currents 11/26/2024. <https://jewishcurrents.org/trumps-israel-instincts-dont-matter> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

Spinning the pending Gaza ceasefire agreement

Haaretz columnist Amos Harel appears to have good sources on at least what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants the public to hear about its thinking. Unfortunately, it’s often hard to tell whether Harel is reporting in a journalistically-critical manner or just boosting Netanyahu’s preferred message of the moment.

His latest analysis of the planned ceasefire seems to lean pretty heavily toward the latter approach. (1) In his telling, it was the tough-minded insistence of that shrewd and determined statesman Donald Trump that reluctantly pushed Netanyahu to agree to the deal – whose implementation according to Harel is to begin “most likely, early next week, i.e., after Trump is sworn in as President.

Harel writes, “His enormous pressure on both sides and on mediators Egypt and Qatar finally brought about the deal.”

As Esquire columnist Charlie Pierce sometimes likes to say, “Honky, please.”

Did they hire some scriptwriter from The Apprentice to come up with this spin? When did Donald Trump of the real world ever take enough time off from playing golf to pull such a feat? Harel’s column is basically a puff piece for Trump. In Harel’s spin:

The current positive result would not have been reached without the efforts of the defense establishment, the one responsible for the terrible failure that led to the massacre. And yet, negotiations would not have reached their final lap without Trump. Over the autumn, and increasingly so after his victory in the presidential election in November, he set his target: a full cease-fire and the gradual return of all the hostages.

For a long time, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not want this deal. His followers insist that his considerations were relevant. Controlling the so-called Philadelphi corridor on the Gaza Strip's border with Egypt was presented as an eternal security requirement for Israel. The rapidity with which Netanyahu retreated from this principle under pressure from Trump attests to the real weight of this argument.

A key claim to watch if this ceasefire is implemented: Netanyahu “also agreed to allow the entry of 600 trucks with humanitarian aid per day, 100 more than the daily average before the war.” The chance of that happening for more than a few days of photo-ops is somewhat lower than Trump announcing on Saturday that he will not agree to be sworn in as President because it would demean the office for a convicted felon to assume it.

The biggest “tell” that this is a total puff piece is this: “Trump … acts out of a tangled web of interests, focusing on positioning the U.S. within the rapidly changing global strategic picture, as well as looking after his personal status and prestige.”

In the real world, Trump is looking for any way to use his office to enrich himself. If real reporters get to interview Trump, they should ask him how he would assess “the rapidly changing global strategic picture.” If he responds to it all, it would be something like: “America First, China virus, tariffs, wokeness.”

Only in the next-to-last paragraph does Harel explains (somewhat obliquely) that there are countless ways that Netanyahu can and almost certainly will come up with excuses to resume the full-on genocidal war that supposedly will have a pause with this agreement to allow Trump to brag about how he brought Peace To The Middle East.

Harel’s final paragraph is another piece of boilerplate:

At the same time, the characteristics of the new arrangement will become clearer, including questions such as whether the Gaza Strip will be reconstructed, which countries will mobilize and finance this and whether there is a chance for an overall solution that includes an alternative government that removes the murderous terrorists of Hamas from ruling the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian independence? Two-state solution? A non-apartheid Israel including Palestinians? Not part of the program. A reminder: in 2024, the Israeli Knesset (Parliament) voted 98-6 to reject any kind of Palestinian state. It’s very officially not part of the program.

This resolution — passed 68-9 — altogether rejects the establishment of a Palestinian state, even as part of a negotiated settlement with Israel.

“The Knesset of Israel firmly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state west of Jordan. The establishment of a Palestinian state in the heart of the Land of Israel will pose an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens, perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and destabilize the region,” the resolution stated. (2)

Notes:

(1) Harel, Amos (2025): How Trump Scared Netanyahu Into Accepting a Cease-fire Deal With Hamas. Haaretz 01/16/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-01-16/ty-article/.premium/how-trump-scared-netanyahu-into-accepting-a-cease-fire-deal-with-hamas/00000194-6bd9-d876-affe-7ffb0c1d0000?gift=9107a7d6ea114272bfcb9a2a897ee609> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(2) Magid, Jacob (2024): Knesset votes overwhelmingly against Palestinian statehood, days before PM’s US trip. The Times of Israel 07/18/2024. <https://www.timesofisrael.com/knesset-votes-overwhelmingly-against-palestinian-statehood-days-before-pms-us-trip/> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).