Gaza Ceasefire? Maybe. But the possibility for it falling through is high.

Daniel Levy appears on Democracy Now! with Jeremy Scahill and Muhammad Shehada to discuss the Gaza ceasefire that may or may not get signed between now and Trump’s Inauguration. (1)

Qasim Rashid also gives us a snapshot of the current moment in this maybe-ceasefire:

Yesterday [Wednesday], Israel and Hamas announced a ceasefire agreement that promised to end Israel’s 16 month siege on Gaza and secure the release of dozens of hostages. No sooner was this deal announced, but the Israeli military viciously bombed civilian tents and a residential building in central Gaza, one in which disabled children were seeking safety, killing at least 77 more Palestinians. Adding to the injustice, and as has happened so many times, the deal seems to already have unraveled as Israel has furthermore delayed a cabinet vote, accusing Hamas of creating a “last-minute crisis.” (2)

He also gives a background on previous negotiations and the pattern of Israeli sabotage of them that has so often pursued.

Hamas has affirmed its commitment to ceasefire, stating it had upheld all terms outlined by the mediators. Meanwhile, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly accused Hamas of thwarting the deal, he refuses to identify what Hamas allegedly did. This isn’t the first time Netanyahu has obstructed progress on a ceasefire or hostage deal. In fact, the receipts show this is part of a disturbing pattern, and it is a disgrace the Biden administration continues to fall for it while innocent people continue to suffer and die.

Chris Hedges also gives a recap of the previous diplomatic efforts repeatedly torpedoed by Israel. He takes a particularly jaded view of the current situation – not without reason:

Israel, going back decades, has played a duplicitous game. It signs a deal with the Palestinians that is to be implemented in phases. The first phase gives Israel what it wants — in this case the release of the Israeli hostages in Gaza — but Israel habitually fails to implement subsequent phases that would lead to a just and equitable peace. It eventually provokes the Palestinians with indiscriminate armed assaults to retaliate, defines a Palestinian response as a provocation and abrogates the ceasefire deal to reignite the slaughter.

If this latest three-phase ceasefire deal is ratified — and there is no certainty that it will be by Israel — it will, I expect, be little more than a presidential inauguration bombing pause. Israel has no intention of halting its merry-go-round of death.

The Israeli cabinet has delayed a vote on the ceasefire proposal while it continues to pound Gaza. At least 81 Palestinians have been killed in the last 24 hours. (3)

Peter Beinart late in November reviewed Trump’s Israel policy from his first term and looked at the group of hardline pro-Israel team he had already assembled, making this prediction for his second term:

In the weeks and months to come, it’s likely that Trump will criticize Israel’s leaders, or its wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and that the media—ever alert to stories that play against type—will warn that Netanyahu’s days of blank-check US support may be coming to an end. Don’t fall for it. For a Republican Party now defined by ethnonationalism, ardent support for Israel is as foundational as hostility to non-white immigration to the US. Trump may waiver in his support for Israel. But his presidency will not. [my emphasis]

Notes:

(1) Daniel Levy, Muhammad Shehada, Jeremy Scahill on Ceasefire Deal, Trump's Role & Palestine's Future. Democracy Now! YouTube channel 01/16/2025. <https://youtu.be/aULNgLFlEiE?si=L8DHaHUxpOawubqa> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(2) Rashid, Qasim (2025): "Ceasefire" Deal As Israel Keeps Bombing Gaza. Let’s Address This (Substack) 01/16/2025. <https://www.qasimrashid.com/p/ceasefire-deal-as-israel-keeps-bombing> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(3) The Ceasefire Charade. The Chris Hedges Report 01/16/2025. <https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/the-ceasefire-charade> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).

(4) Trump’s Israel Instincts Don’t Matter. Jewish Currents 11/26/2024. <https://jewishcurrents.org/trumps-israel-instincts-dont-matter> (Accessed: 2025-16-01).