Showing posts with label argentina. Show all posts
Showing posts with label argentina. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Russia making trouble in … Argentina?

We’re always shocked, shocked I tell you, shocked!! to hear that Russia tries to influence politics in other countries!

So, here’s another case: (1)


This is a report about how the US State Department is accusing Russia of trying to destabilize the crackpot rightwing-populist government of Argentine President Javier Milei.

The State Department is saying:
The Russian Government is also engaged in operations meant to destabilize the government of Argentina and escalate tensions between Argentina and its neighbors. We expect that the Russian government will leverage RT, its affiliates, and its overall covert playbook in pursuit of these malign efforts. (2)
Página/12 reports:
This action also takes place in [the context of] a clear alignment of Milei not only with the White House but also with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymir Zelensky, who was in Argentina for the inauguration of the Argentine head of state.

Milei himself has expressed his support for Ukraine in the war [against Russia] and, upon assuming the presidency, chose not to join the BRICS bloc, which is led by Russia along with Brazil, China, India and South Africa. [my translation]
Now, it may be the case that the US is concerned about Russia promoting critical stories against Milei via RT or other methods. And Russia would no doubt prefer that Argentina be more friendly to the BRICS alliance rather than less friendly.

On the other hand, the US has a very long history of preferring right-leaning governments in Argentina - and ones like Milei’s that are more than right “leaning” – in Argentina. And, of course, Milei’s anarcho-capitalist perspective is something that billionaires admire, as long at it's their own power and influence that get to be anarchic.

So, the Russians may not be happy about Milei’s government. But Milei’s government is far too busy wrecking Argentina’s economic and state institutions to mount some major military operation in support of Ukraine in their current war. So engineering regime change in Argentina presumably ranks very low on Russia’s lit of international priorities.

I’m assuming that the Biden Administration has noticed that Milei’s has been very supportive of Benjamin Netanyahu’s war on Palestinian civilians in Gaza and the West bank, for which Biden continues to provide unconditional support, despite the occasionally sternly-worded press releases criticizing some action of Israel’s.

And they have surely noticed that Argentina’s neighbor Chile takes a different position:
Chile has joined a group of nations supporting a genocide case against Israel filed last year at the International Court of Justice.

President Gabriel Boric said in a speech to lawmakers Saturday that he was appalled by the humanitarian devastation in Gaza, especially against women and children. He accused the Israeli army of using “indiscriminate and disproportional” force.

“These acts demand a firm and permanent response of the international community,” the president said. (3)
The US is famously leery of left-leaning governments in Chile, Argentina, or anywhere else in Latin America. So there is a very good chance that whatever reason the US might find to actively intervene in Argentine politics, protecting Argentina’s right to self-determination against the hypothetical danger of a Russian regime-change operation in Buenos Aires will not be one of them.

Notes:

(1) Página/12 14.09.2024. <https://www.pagina12.com.ar/767414-estados-unidos-acusa-a-rusia-de-querer-desestabilizar-al-gob> (Accessed: 2024-14-09).

(2) Alerting the World to RT’s Global Covert Activities. U.S. Department of State website 09/13/2024. <https://www.state.gov/alerting-the-world-to-rts-global-covert-activities> (Accessed: 2024-14-09).

(3) Chile joins developing nations rallying behind genocide case against Israel at international court. AP News 06/01/2024. <https://apnews.com/article/chile-israel-hamas-gaza-international-court-a8ed91da3ec408b414fb51deef329085> (Accessed: 2024-14-09).

Saturday, December 16, 2023

National history as inspiration and nightmare: Argentina's "El Loco" version

Argentina's new President, Javier "El Loco" Milei is providing us with an example,of how rightwing demagogues - populist or not - use the image of a glorious Golden Age in the national past.

Full post: https://brucemillerca.substack.com/p/national-history-as-inspiration-and

Monday, November 20, 2023

Political earthquake with Javier Milei in Argentina: And not the good kind of political earthquake

Argentine President-elect Javier Milei campaigned on rightwing populist appeal. But his politics are hard right. He is an economist and a “paleolibertarian,” aka, an adherent of what we might call Crack-Pipe economics and an authoritarian who has contempt for democracy and the rule of law. Authoritarian politics in Argentina is also called gorilismo, which basically means hardcore and even violently rightwing.

Full post: https://brucemillerca.substack.com/p/political-earthquake-with-javier

Sunday, February 12, 2023

News about Russian women going to Argentina to have their babies

The BBC News and Spiegel Online report on a story also covered by the Argentine news services Pagina/12 and La Nación. (Sources cited at the end below.) It has to do with pregnant Russian women traveling to Argentina to have their babies there.

Apparently this has been going on for a while. BBC News describes a Russian-language website offering travel services to Argentina for such clients. Argentine authorities seem to think that their services are not entirely legal:
A Russian-language website seen by the BBC offers various packages for expecting mothers who wish to give birth in Argentina. The website advertises services such as personalised birth plans, airport pick-ups, Spanish lessons and discounts on the cost of stays in "the best hospitals in the Argentinian capital".

The packages range from "economy class", starting at $5,000 (£4,144), to "first class", starting at $15,000 (£12,433).

The website says its founder has been facilitating birth tourism and offering migration support since 2015, and the company says it is "100% Argentinian".

On Saturday, La Nacion reported that Argentinian police has been carrying out raids as part of an investigation into a "million-dollar business and illicit network" that allegedly provided pregnant Russian women and their partners with fake documents issued in record time to allow them to settle in Argentina.

Police said the gang [sic] charged up to $35,000 (£29,011) for the service.
The BBC also reports, “The number of arrivals has increased recently, which local media suggests is a result of the war in Ukraine.“

The BBC does not give the organization’s name. But Raúl Kollmann refers to what a firm called RuArgentina as providing such services, but mentions that numerous groups are involved. Kollmann also notes that of Russian women coming to Argentina in 2022 and having babies there, over 70% returned to Russia within a month and a half of giving birth.

Argentine immigration law (like US law) recognizes birthright citizenship, under which babies born in Argentina are automatically considered Argentine citizens. Argentine law is also generous in allowing parents of Argentine citizens by birth can also acquire citizenship. The requirements for non-Argentine-citizen immigrants is significantly more strenuous.

He also reports that the prosecutor investigating this issue, María Servini, is examining several hypotheses about what is going on: giving birth in Argentina is cheaper than in Russia; the mothers are seeking to get Argentine passports which could allow them to travel internationally with fewer restrictions than from Russia; money laundering, though Kollmann notes that Argentine citizens face more stringent control on the practice than Russian citizens; and, as a part of creating a substitute identity for Russian agents. (None of the reports I’ve seen indicate that Argentine visas attined in this specific way were used for espionage purposes.)

Kollmann also observes that Russian children who acquire Argentine citizenship can use it to avoid being drafted in later years.

But it’s not entirely clear from the reports cited here that this is any kind of indication that this travel has particularly to do with the current Russia-Ukraine War or dissatisfaction with Russian foreign policy. We can speculate that the war and the effects of the sanctions against Russia may have added new urgency to the desire of some affluent Russians to make plans for possible relocation outside the country.

The BBC notes, “‘Birth tourism’ by Russian citizens to Argentina appears to be a lucrative and well-established practice.“ The label “birth tourism” is a bit reminiscent of American xenophobes’ demagoguery about “anchor babies.” But it may not be the right term to apply to the case of Russian women seeking to get out of Russia now, even though it seems to fit most of the over 70% of cases from last year cited above. If the current crop of pregnant Russian visitors includes a significant number who are actually intending to stay indefinitely, that’s immigration, not “tourism.”

It’s also worth noting here that significant European immigration to Argentina has been going on since the 19th century, particularly from Germany and Italy, but also from Russia. So many Jewish refugees from Russia came to Argentina that the Argentine word “ruso (rusa)” can mean either “Russian” or “Jewish” depending on the context.

Sources:

Berardi, Luján (2023): Embarazadas rusas. No se sabe si las mujeres que estuvieron demoradas en Ezeiza se quedarán en la Argentina. In: La Nación 11.02.2023. (Accessed: 2023-12-02).

Gozzi, Laura (2023): Pregnant Russian women flying to Argentina for citizenship, officials say. BBC News 02/12/2023. (Accessed: 2023-12-02).

Kollmann, Raúl (2023): Three articles in Pagina/12 11.02.2023. (Accessed: 2023-12-02). (1) Qué hay detrás de la ola de embarazadas rusas: La industria judicial de pasaportes argentinos. (2) Quién es Kirill Makoveev, cabeza de una organización que trae a las embarazadas rusas. (3) La situación de las seis embarazadas rusas frenadas en Ezeiza.

Tausende schwangere Russinnen reisen nach Argentinien. Spiegel Online 12.02.2023. (Accessed: 2023-12-02).

Monday, April 6, 2020

Confederate "Heritage" Month 2020, April 6: Hinton Rowan Helper, abolitionist and white racist

David Brown wrote a biography of an important Abolitionist and author of the influential antislavery book, The Impending Crisis of the South: How to Meet It (1857), Hinton Rowan Helper and the Impending Crisis of the South (2006).

Brown describes Helper’s shift to promoting what can generously be described as a version of white racism that was rancid even by the standards of anti-Reconstruction Southern whites. Fortunately, its influence, articulated in three books published postwar, seems to have been considerably less than that of the Impending Crisis. Because Helper used explicitly exterminationist rhetoric against blacks:
The introduction to [Helper’s 1867 book] Nojoque states that “the primary object of this work is to write the Negro out of America, and the secondary object is to write him (and manifold millions of other black and bi-colored caitiffs, little better than himself) out of existence.” This grim beginning becomes worse as it is explained that “mulattoes, Indians, Chinese, and other obviously inferior races of mankind” are also targeted. All groups should be required to leave the United States after July 4, 1876, or sent to a separate state or territory such as Texas or Arizona. “We should so far yield to the evident designs and purposes of Providence, as to be both willing and anxious to see the negroes, like the Indians and all other effete and dingy-hued races, gradually exterminated from the face of the whole earth.”
Helper was a writer, activist, and latter lobbyist, not a politician. But it’s not unusual for people to shift their ideological viewpoints, especially if doing so offers them career or publishing-market advantages. But it’s not obvious that Helper was motivated in his postwar racism by opportunist considerations. In fact, since he had achieved a national reputation and prominence among the abolitionist movement by his anti-slavery book, continuing to work with Republicans and pro-Reconstruction activists and publicists would have been a more obvious way to build on his reputation. Especially since he had so incensed the planter class and their supporters before the war.

So why did he make such a dramatic and ugly shift in his social and political stances? Both the drastic nature of his seeming conversion and also the contrast between the coherent polemical logic of Impending Crisis and the sloppy, unsophisticated, and disorganized arguments of his postwar racist-eliminationist books suggests a psychological explanation. Brown writes, “The complex worldview displayed in [Helper’s 1855 book] The Land of Gold had flattened into a one-dimensional obsession with black-white relations bordering on paranoia” after the war.

But Brown also finds no obvious evidence in his personal life that Helper suffered from pathological problems in his dealings with people or in the conduct of his professional affairs. It is possible to be a mean-hearted jerk without suffering from a clinical illness.
Joaquín Cardoso wrote that “it can be generalized that Helper’s mind began to lose its grip of reality” around 1889, but Hugh C. Bailey pointed to a later decline due to “his great poverty and loneliness and as a result of many defeats and chronic criticism.” Helper’s actions did become increasingly erratic, of that there can be no doubt, but the case for his complete breakdown cannot be proven, given a lack of evidence. ...
Moreover, other accounts show that Helper remained mentally agile in old age.
He argues that part of the difference between the Helper of the Impending Crisis was focused more on economic and class issues than racial theorizing or promotion white racist tropes. “Helper’s position in the 1850s was complex and reflected multiple concerns. It was not fixated on the issue of race relations.” Brown does not think that Helper had some fundamental change in his view of race as such during the Civil War: “In the 1850s, Helper implicitly and unconsciously assumed the superior qualities of whites. By the late 1860s white superiority was not only explicit but dominated his thinking. Indeed, it had almost become a way of life.“

So what changed?

Brown does note that “though The Impending Crisis became a bestseller he did not make a penny out of it.” So it’s not impossible that pecuniary considerations played a role in Helper’s shift of emphasis. Still, “Helper never complained about this and was seemingly oblivious to the potential riches that passed him by. By contrast, he did enjoy being in the public eye.” But his postwar racist tracts don’t seem to have been lucrative for him, either.

Helper was appointed consult to Buenos Aires in late 1861 and arrived there in April 1862, the month Bartolomé Mitre, the Governor of Buenos Aires, began claiming himself in charge of the country’s executive power. Mitre was formally elected President – in an uncontested, indirect election – in October of 1862 and remained President during Helper’s service there. Helper attended Mitre’s inauguration on October 12, and according to Brown, “Helper was very much an important American spokesman in Argentina.”

He also writes that Helper “pretty much worked out his racist agenda in Buenos Aires.”

Brown’s account of Helper’s years in Argentina mainly focuses on his official activities as they relate to the United States and the ongoing Civil War. He seems to have been a consistent, enthusiastic Unionist, who greeted Lincoln’s 1862 in a very positive way in his official statements. But he also notes that Helper began to shift his attention more to the goal of deporting all African-Americans out of the country, the completely unrealistic, racist, and cruel aim of the African Colonization movement in the US. Brown relates that Helper, in declining applications from black residents of Argentina on what seemed to be straightforward grounds, also reacted as follows:
However, Helper also rejected these applicants “owing to the fact of their questionable citizenship at any time.” In a frank admission of basic prejudice Helper spelled out his position: “As with my present conviction I could not, of my own accord, do anything whatever to increase or enlarge, even in the smallest degree, the colored population of America—sincerely believing as I do, that population is already too large by the whole number of the same, whether bond or free, black or brown, now inhabiting the continent.” This was an important statement. Helper’s role as consul provided a situation in which he was directly confronted with the issue of black citizenship, two years before it would become a pressing national issue. His response was clear. He would not allow blacks to become citizens of the United States. Although vigorously supporting the war on the idealistic grounds of ending slavery, he would not go any further in aiding the cause of African Americans.
So by that time, it appears that Helper was already shifting his viewpoint to emphasizing denial of rights to black Americans, even though he continue to oppose slavery. And in the last year of his service in Buenos Aires, 1866, he mentioned in a dispatch that he foresaw that South and Central America “ought to be, must be, and eventually will be, Caucasianized, Anglo-Saxonized, Protestantized.” Which was crazy talk.

We can also wonder about the ways in which events in Argentina itself shaped his perceptions of race and power. Obviously, one of the most significant was his 1863 marriage to an Argentine woman, Maria Rodriguez. Brown quotes his dispatch on his marriage, noting that it shows a particular concern about his new wife’s racial heritage: Although his bride was a Buenos Aires native, she came from “pure Spanish descent.” Helper suggested a strong contrast between the “pure descent” of upper-class Argentines with that of what he believed was the less worthy Creole background of the masses, highlighting the significance of blood lines in his assessment of personal character. Moreover, Helper desperately sought to create the impression that his wife was American in all but birth. Maria “was educated in New York, where all the time under the immediate guardianship of both her parents, she spent five years at school, and where, meanwhile, she became, in hand and heart, as thoroughly American as if she had been born in the Capitol at Washington.”

Social divisions based on racial definitions were extremely important in Argentine politics at the time, as they were in other Latin American countries. Those with “pure” Spanish blood considered themselves to be the most worthy race, with a hair-slitting set of other racial hierarchies with indigenous peoples and blacks at the bottom, with many intermediate categories of mixtures. Whatever her family’s particular views on race, marrying into an obviously wealthy Argentine family means that Helper was living in an environment in which a neurotic racial hierarchy was a common part of social assumptions of his Argentine social circle. We could also speculate that when he moved back to North Carolina after returning home, having a foreign wife would tempt him to stress how racially acceptable she was in comparison to African-Americans.

The dominant politics of Argentina in the 1860s also elevated questions of racial hierarchies and power. Politics there divided in broad lines between the centralists and the “federalists”, with the federalists being the trend that stressed democratic participation and control and also Argentine national independence more than the centralists. (The centralists were known as Unitarians, which had nothing to do with the Unitarian Church.) This division was overlaid on a long-running struggle between the Province of Buenos Aires and the other provinces over the political dominance of Buenos Aires and its control of the huge revenues of the port there. The wealthier classes tended to support the Unitarians, while the Federalists appealed to the popular classes. In foreign policy, Unitarians tended to be very friendly toward Britain and open to lending by British financial houses that increased Argentina dependence on Britain.

Ethnic-racial factors were of course also involved in that division. It was during Helper’s tenure in Buenos Aires that Unitarian forces defeated and murdered the legendary Federalist caudillo of La Rioja province, Ángel “Chacho” Peñaloza.

Bartolomé Mitre was very much on the side of the Unitarians and supported by the upper class with whom Helper was closely associated there, including by marriage. Mitre encouraged a revolt by the “liberal” party in Uruguay against the Uruguayan government in 1863, leading to the grimmest military conflict in the history of South American, the War of the Triple Alliance (La Guerra de la Triple Alianza) of 1864- 1871. The war involved Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay invading and subjugating Paraguay, which had maintained a relatively independent model of economic development which did not please Britain at all. Argentine leaders like Felipe Varela actively opposed the war, including military uprisings against it.

La Guerra de la Triple Alianza was an exceptionally brutal conflict. Argentina’s great historian, Juan Bautista Alberdi, opposed the war an wrote a book on it, El crimen de la Guerra (The Crimes of the War, 1870), which was became an important influence on the development of international laws of war. While the number of casualties are disputed, Eduardo Nakayama writes that in all of the Americas, only the US Civil War and the Mexican Revolution of 1910-20 produced more total dead than the war on Paraguay. (“Una visión paraguaya de la Guerra” Todo es Historia Mayo 2015)

And the Argentine version of the Indian Wars continued even longer than those in America. Those, too, were charged with racial justifications and bigotry. So it’s entirely plausible that Helper’s close association with Argentine politics influenced the racist and eliminationist views he would express in his books after his return to America. Brown writes:
He greatly enjoyed and appreciated Argentina and maintained a keen interest in its development for the rest of his life. In 1889, he wrote that Argentina had been “transformed [from] a mere military and tyrannical Confederation into one of the most civil and well-ordered and meritorious Republics in the world” and was “soon to become to South America what the United States are already to North America,—the leading and controlling power of a vast continent.” … For better or worse, ideas formulated and developed in Argentina would not only remain with Helper for decades but become an obsessive, relentless, and ultimately tragic pursuit.

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Argentina's President-elect Alberto Fernández meets Mexico's AMLO

The newly-elected President of Argentina, Alberto Fernández, met in Mexico with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) on Monday. This is Fernández' first foreign visit since his election a week ago. Fernández takes office on December 10.

This diplomatic gesture seems to have several purposes. In the public statements, AMLO pledged support for Argentina in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They also made routine expressions of optimism about improving trade between Argentina and Mexico, which is currently very little.

Another purpose is one they expressed in a negative way. As Alejandra Canchola y Alberto Morales report (AMLO nos ayudará a resolver nuestra deuda: presidente electo de Argentina El Universal 04.11.2019):
Fernández specified that there was no discussion of a theme similar to the progressive front against neoliberalism in Latin America, as proposed by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro; "we simply want to implement policies that help social equality."

However, he said his government would focus with particular interest on integrating with Latin America and joining forces to improve the situation of some countries with international debts.
(All translations from Spanish in this post are mine.)

Which seems to me to be a diplomatic way of saying this is exactly what we're doing but we're not declaring a political war against the US and the Trump Administration. Both AMLO and Fernández are associated with the Grupo Pueblo, an alliance of progressive Latin American leaders. And this meeting was clearly a display by the northernmost mainly-Spanish-speaking country and Argentina in the south of aiming at improved Latin American unity for the purpose of promoting development and resisting at least portions of the dominant neoliberal model, which is currently exploding politically in a dramatic way in Chile. (John Ackerman, Neoliberalismo en crisis Proceso 02.11.2019)

AMLO has also managed an uneasy relationship with the Trump Administration without obvious blowups since becoming Mexican President in December 2018. I'm sure that Fernández was also hoping to get some specific practical advice about dealing with the deranged American President. Argentina is already facing the need to make significant cuts in the principal and interest on their national debt which the outgoing rightwing government of Mauricio Macri ran up enormously with little or no actual direct benefit to the Argentine economy. So Fernández has to expect that the Trump Administration will be out to undermine his Peronist government, so he needs all the good advice and alliances that he can get.

Carolina Rivera reports on how Fernández characterized AMLO's politics (Alberto Fernández buscará aplicar políticas sociales de AMLO en Argentina Milenio 04.11.2019):
Argentina's president-elect stated that Andrés Manuel López Obrador's election triumph in 2018 was a breath of fresh air for Latin America, where inequality and poverty have permeated large sections of society.
"The triumph of Andrés Manuel López Obrador was a breath of fresh air, it was an opportunity to review everything that was going on in Latin America, we have to reflect with Latin America, with the deferment of large social sectors that have gradually been left in marginality and poverty, and in marginality and poverty no one finds a future.

“We are leaders respectful of the institutionalism and of democracy that we are raising, conscious of what has prevailed in recent times, we seek to find the lost equity in Latin America, we seek social equality in Latin America."
She also quotes Fernández as follows:
Questioned about its participation in the Puebla Group, a forum of progressive leaders of the region, Fernández said that the objective of this group goes beyond expanding an ideology opposing neoliberalism to achieve balance and social equality social in the region.
“We feel that we need to bring up policies that again take back those abandoned by the current system, that put them back on the stage of each of our countries on the social stage, those that have been left out. That's our priority," he said.
But AMLO did make a point of using the word "austerity" in his presentation (López Obrador: "Queremos fortalecer la relación entre nuestros pueblos" Página/12 04.11.2019):
In that tone, the Mexican president avoided declare himself with respect to the debate over the depletion of the neoliberal model and stressed that the "good-neighborly" relationship with its North American neighbors, with whom it is closing a new agreement, which will replace NAFTA. In addition, he expressed his appreciation of his "very good relationship" with President Donald Trump, who last Friday offered his congratulations to Alberto Fernández.

"It is good that our experience of not continuing to apply the same economic policy as always is known We must opt for changes, balance, maintain macroeconomic variables, be responsible, apply a true policy of austerity, be very strict in the fight against corruption, that should be no luxuries in government", López Obrador described the model he proposes from Mexico.
Obviously, relations with Venezuela are a touchy point right now in US-Latin American relations and among Latin American nations. (Maduro dice que AMLO es “aliado” en frente antineoliberal; López Obrador lo niega Aristegui Noticias 04.11.2019; Ezequiel Rudman, Alberto hizo equilibrio entre Washington y Caracas Ámbito 05.11.2019)

See also:

EN VIVO | conferencia de prensa desde México 11/04/2019:



El presidente electo de Argentina, Alberto Fernández, se reúne con AMLO de México

El recién elegido presidente de Argentina, Alberto Fernández, se reunió el lunes en México con el presidente mexicano Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). es la primera visita extranjera de Fernández después de su elección por una semana. Fernández toma posesión de la presidencia el 10 de diciembre.

Este gesto diplomático parece tener varios propósitos. En las declaraciones públicas, AMLO prometió apoyo a Argentina en las negociaciones con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). También hicieron expresiones rutinarias de optimismo sobre la mejora del comercio entre Argentina y México, que actualmente es muy poco.

Otro propósito es uno que expresaron de manera negativa. Como informa Alejandra Canchola y Alberto Morales (AMLO nos ayudará a resolver nuestra deuda: presidente electo de Argentina El Universal 04.11.2019):
Fernández detalló que no hubo un tema parecido el frente progresista en contra del neoliberalismo en América Latina, como lo propuso el presidente de Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro; “simplemente queremos implementar políticas que ayuden a la igualdad social”.

Sin embargo, afirmó que su gobierno centrará especial interés en que América Latina se integre y reúna esfuerzos para sacar adelante la situación que mantienen algunos países con las deudas internacionales.
Lo que me parece una forma diplomática de decir que esto es exactamente lo que estamos haciendo, pero no estamos declarando una guerra política contra Estados Unidos y la Administración Trump. Tanto AMLO como Fernández están asociados con el Grupo Pueblo, una alianza de líderes latinoamericanos progresistas. Y esta reunión fue claramente una muestra del país más septentrional, principalmente de habla hispana, y Argentina en el sur, con el objetivo de mejorar la unidad latinoamericana con el fin de promover el desarrollo y resistir al menos a partes del neoliberal dominante modelo, que actualmente está explotando políticamente de una manera dramática en Chile. (John Ackerman, Neoliberalismo en crisis Proceso 02.11.2019)

AMLO también ha logrado una relación incómoda con la Administración Trump sin golpes obvios desde que se convirtió en presidente mexicano en diciembre de 2018. Estoy seguro de que Fernández también esperaba obtener algunos consejos prácticos específicos sobre cómo tratar con el desquiciado presidente estadounidense. Argentina ya se enfrenta a la necesidad de hacer recortes significativos en el principal y los intereses de su deuda nacional que el gobierno de derechista saliente de Mauricio Macri se aumentó enormemente con poco o ningún beneficio directo real para la economía argentina. Así que Fernández tiene que esperar que la Administración Trump va a socavar su gobierno peronista, por lo que necesita todos los buenos consejos y alianzas que pueda conseguir.

Carolina Rivera informa sobre cómo Fernández caracterizó la política de AMLO (Alberto Fernández buscará aplicar políticas sociales de AMLO en Argentina Milenio 04.11.2019):
El presidente electo de argentina afirmó que el triunfo electoral de Andrés Manuel López Obrador en 2018 fue una bocanada de aire fresco para América Latina, en donde la desigualdad y la pobreza han permeado a grandes sectores de la sociedad.
"El triunfo de Andrés Manuel López Obrador fue una bocanada de aire fresco, fue una oportunidad de revisión de todo lo que pasaba en América Latina, tenemos que reflexionar con América Latina, con la postergación de grandes sectores sociales que poco a poco han ido quedado en la marginalidad y en la pobreza, y en la marginalidad y en la pobreza nadie encuentra un futuro.

"Somos dirigentes respetuosos de la institucionalidad y de la democracia que estamos planteando, conscientes de lo que ha imperado en los últimos tiempos, buscamos encontrar la equidad perdida en América Latina, buscamos la igualdad social en América latina".
También cita a Fernández de la siguiente manera:
Cuestionado sobre su participación en el Grupo Puebla, foro de dirigentes progresistas de la región, Fernández aseguró que el objetivo de este grupo va más allá de expandir una ideología en contra del neoliberalismo para lograr el equilibrio y la igualdad social en la región.
“Nosotros sentimos que hace falta encarar unas políticas que vuelvan a recuperar a los abandonados por el sistema actual, que vuelvan a poner en el escenario de cada uno de nuestros países en el escenario social, a los que han quedado al margen. Esa es nuestra prioridad”, dijo.
Pero AMLO hizo un punto de usar la palabra "austeridad" en su presentación (López Obrador: "Queremos fortalecer la relación entre nuestros pueblos" Página/12 04.11.2019):
En ese tono, el presidente mexicano evitó pronunicarse respecto del debate sobre el agotamiento del modelo neoliberal y destacó que continuará la relación de "buena vencidad" con sus vecinos de América del Norte, con quienes se encuentra cerrando un nuevo acuerdo comercial que reemplaza al Nafta. Además, valoró su "muy buena relación" con el presidente Donald Trump, quien el viernes pasado ofreció su respaldo a Alberto Fernández.

"Es bueno que se conozca nuestra experiencia de no seguir aplicando la misma política económica de siempre. Hay que optar por cambios, el equilibrio, mantener variables macroeconómicas, ser responsables, aplicar una verdadera política de austeridad, ser muy estrictos en el combate a la corrupción, que no haya lujos en el gobierno", describió López Obrador el modelo que propone desde México.
Obviamente, las relaciones con Venezuela son un punto delicado en este momento en las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y América Latina y entre las naciones latinoamericanas. (Maduro dice que AMLO es “aliado” en frente antineoliberal; López Obrador lo niega Aristegui Noticias 04.11.2019; Ezequiel Rudman, Alberto hizo equilibrio entre Washington y Caracas Ámbito 05.11.2019)

Véase también:

EN VIVO | conferencia de prensa desde México 11/04/2019:



Monday, November 4, 2019

Argentina’s current external debt problem

Claudio Scaletta explains the debt dilemma created by Mauricio Macri's outgoing government in Argentina which will be a central challenge for the new Peronist government of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner that takes office December 10. (Mi nombre es deuda Página/12 03.11.2019)
In any case, the inexorable fact of the macirist heritage is that it generated an external crisis, that it will leave an economy in virtual default and that in the face of this reality there is no alternative but to renegotiate and restructure the maturities. At this point begins the bureaucratic and intricate world of sovereign restructuring and its various models, for example with or without a reduction of the principal, with or without interest. The preliminary assessment suggests that Argentina will need a restructuring with a reduction of principal and interest and, moreover, not making payments in the first few years for the economy to emerge from the stalemate. The concrete form of this restructuring will be the debate for the coming years. [my translation from Spanish: my emphasis in italics]

Problema actual de deuda externa de Argentina

Claudio Scaletta explica el dilema de la deuda creado por el gobierno saliente de Mauricio Macri en Argentina que será un reto central para el nuevo gobierno peronista de Alberto Fernández y Cristina Fernández de Kirchner que toma posesión el 10 de diciembre. (Mi nombre es deuda Página/12 03.11.2019)
En cualquier caso, el dato inexorable de la herencia macrista es que generó una crisis externa, que dejará una economía en virtual cesación de pagos y que frente a esta realidad no existe más alternativa que renegociar y reestructurar los vencimientos. En este punto comienza el burocrático e intricado mundo de las reestructuraciones soberanas y sus distintos modelos, por ejemplo con o sin quitas de capital, con o sin quita de intereses. La evaluación preliminar parece indicar que Argentina necesitará una reestructuración con quitas de capital e intereses y, además, no realizar pagos los primeros años para que la economía salga del estancamiento. La forma concreta que tomará esta reestructuración será el debate de los próximos años. [mi énfasis en cursiva]

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Alberto Fernández y Cristina Fernández de Kirchner eligidos en Argentina

Argentina tuvo elecciones nacionales y provinciales el domingo que devolvieron a un gobierno peronista (izquierda) al poder después de cuatro años de un gobierno conservador encabezado por un oligarca, Mauricio Macri. El nuevo presidente es Alberto Fernández, con la expresidenta Cristina Fernández de Kirchner como vicepresidente. Su coalición electoral se llama el "Frente de Todos".

El gobierno de Macri implementó una política económica que era un modelo de lo que la opinión económica "respetable" - la de lo que el economista estadounidense Paul Krugman llama Very Serious People (VSPs) - que inmediatamente produjo cuatro años de lo que generosamente se puede describir como terrible resultados: salarios más bajos, recortes en los servicios públicos, privatización de la propiedad pública, un nivel de vida más bajo para la mayoría y una enorme cantidad de deuda pública, gran parte de la cual fue un regalo puro para los especuladores financieros. El ex Ministro de Finanzas peronista y recién elegido Gobernador de la provincia de Buenos Aires Axel Kiciloff describió los resultados como un "tierra arrasada" económico. Para la mayoría de la gente, eso es. Macri y sus aliados muy ricos lo hicieron bien.

Victoria Ginzberg escribe (Se va Macri Página/12 28.10.2019):
Se va Macri. El que dijo que venía a combatir la corrupción y apareció envuelto en los Panamá Papers. El que, como quien no quiere la cosa, hizo un acuerdo para que el Estado le condonara a su familia una deuda de, por lo menos, cinco mil millones de pesos. El que, entre otras cosas, también benefició a las empresas de su familia con contratos en las autopistas, con una maniobra mediante la cual pagó una reparación millonaria injustificada que sirvió a la vez para renovar los contratos. El que ubicó en áreas del Estado a funcionarios que cuidaban y representaban intereses de las empresas de su área. [mi énfasis]
Pero, como también dice Krugman, para los VSPs siempre es mejor estar convencionalmente equivocado que no convencionalmente correcto. Así que Macri obtuvo una cobertura decente en la prensa de negocios estadounidense y europea. Y es totalmente predecible que el nuevo gobierno de Fernández-Kirchner va a recibir prensa negativa correspondientemente de las mismas fuentes. A menos que se reviertan y básicamente adopten el programa económico de Macri, que es muy improbable con los líderes involucrados y sería políticamente suicida para el nuevo gobierno. Sin embargo, ha sucedido en el pasado, en particular con el presidente peronista Carlos Menem (1989-99). Y eso fue un desastre épico, también.

La mala prensa extranjera no es su mayor preocupación. Es probable que los mercados financieros vayan a la guerra contra ellos, al menos por un tiempo. El gobierno peronista tendrá que imponer nuevos controles de capital. Y si Macri es responsable durante el intermedio antes de que Fernández se convierta en presidente, hará lo mismo para evitar ataques especulativos ruinosos. Su historia hasta ahora no ofrece razones para el optimismo en ese sentido.

Una de sus mayores tareas políticas será renegociar o incumplir parte de la deuda externa que el gobierno de Macri apiló. Esto es una heredad absoluta para los VSPs, por supuesto. Macri también ha hecho negocios con Trump. Justo después de las elecciones de Trump, él e Ivanka llegaron por teléfono a Macri y en una semana más o menos, por pura coincidencia estoy seguro, un gran proyecto de Trump en Buenos Aires que había sido detenido de repente fue aprobado para continuar. Así que podemos esperar cierta hostilidad oficial al nuevo gobierno por parte de Trump. Aunque Trump es tan errático, ¿quién sabe?

Vea también:

Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner elected in Argentina

Argentina had national and state (provincial) elections on Sunday that returned a Peronist (left) government to power after four years of a conservative government headed by an oligarch, Mauricio Macri. The new President is Alberto Fernández, with former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as Vice President. Their ticket is called the "Frente de Todos."

Macri's government implemented an economic policy that was a model of what "respectable" economic opinion - that of what Paul Krugman calls the Very Serious People (VSPs) - that immediately produced four years of what can generously be described as awful economic results: lower wages, cutbacks in public services, privatization of public property, a lower living standard for the majority, and a tremendous amount of public debt, much of which was a pure gift to financial speculators. The former Peronist Finance Minister and newly elected Governor of Buenos Aires province Axel Kiciloff described the results as an economic "wasteland." For most people, that is. Macri and his very wealthy allies did fine.

Victoria Ginzberg writes (Se va Macri Página/12 28.10.2019):
Macri is going away. The one who said he came to fight corruption and turned out to be involved in the Panama Papers. The one who, as though it were nothing, made an agreement for the state to forgive his family a debt of at least five billion pesos [around $84 million or at the 10/28/2019 exchange rate]. The one who, among other things, also benefited his family's companies with highway contracts, with a maneuver whereby he paid for an unjustified million-dollar reparation that served at the same time to renew the contracts. The one who placed officials in parts of the government who took care of and represented the interests of companies in their area of responsibility. [my translation from Spanish; emphasis in original]
But, as Krugman also says, for the VSPs it's always better to be conventionally wrong than unconventionally right. So Macri got decent coverage in the American and European business press. And it's entirely predictable that the new Fernández-Kirchner government will get correspondingly negative press from the same sources. Unless they reverse themselves and basically adopt Macri's economic program, which is highly unlikely with the leaders involved and would be politically suicidal for the new government. It has happened in the past, though, notably with the Peronist President Carlos Menem (1989-99). And that was an epic disaster, too.

Bad foreign press isn't their biggest worry. The financial markets are likely to go to war against them, for a while at least. The Peronist government will have to impose new capital controls. And if Macri is at all responsible during the interim before Fernández becomes President, he will do the same to prevent ruinous speculative attacks. His record so far doesn't offer reasons for optimism on that score.

One of their biggest policy tasks will be to renegotiate or default on part of the debt that Macri's government piled on. This is absolute heresy to the VSPs, of course. Macri has also done business with Trump. Just after Trump's election, he and Ivanka got on the phone to Macri and in a week or so, by pure coincidence I'm sure, a big Trump project in Buenos Aires that had been held up suddenly got approved to proceed. So we can expect some official hostility to the new government on Trump's part. Although Trump is so erratic, who knows?

See also: