Peace President Trump’s Venezuela … takeover?

According to the Trump 2.0 reality-TV show the world saw on Saturday, the initial news from Venezuela makes it sound like the still-existing government in Caracas headed by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez hasn’t yet gotten the memo that they are now a colonial government working for Donald Trump. The Argentinian daily Página/12 reports that a non-trivial number of Venezuelans appear to be in more of a “¡No pasarán!” mode in relation to the new colonial status (according to DJT) of their country.

The Vice President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, confirmed Nicolás Maduro as the only president of the country on Saturday, after his capture by the government of Donald Trump in the early hours of the day [Jan. 3]. At the same time, in multiple parts of Venezuela, citizens mobilized to denounce the attack perpetrated as part of the [US] kidnapping operation and to demand the proof of life of the president and his wife, Cilia Flores, who arrived in New York after being captured by U.S. militias [Special Forces].

In a press conference from the Miraflores Palace, Delcy Rodríguez declared: "There is only one president of this country and his name is Nicolás Maduro Moros." She also described the capture operation as "an illegitimate and illegal kidnapping" and called for the immediate release of Maduro and the First Lady. [emphasis in original] (1)

The Independent’s Sam Kiley warns that lots of things could go really badly in what looks like a regime-change operation with no actual plan for the new regime, e.g., who will nominally be in charge as Trump’s viceroy government. Or whatever it is that he and Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth may actually have in mind. (2)

Kiley takes a bit of a cheap shot at European leaders, “In Nato there will be horror. But one can be sure that the supine grovelling that has characterised the behaviour of Nato’s leadership towards Trump and Hegseth will continue.” The public diplomatic “grovelling” will likely continue because Europe (including Britain) is urgently focusesd on forming defense plans that don’t depend on the NATO structure that has always been dominated by the US.

And European leaders are very aware that the US Peace President has been threatening to seize Greenland, which is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, to be controlled by the US. Focusing on deterring – and preparing to respond to – an attempted US seizure of Greenland will take priority over diplomatic protests over Venezuela. But that threat to Denmark also gives European leaders incentive to be careful about sounding like they endorse the Trump team’s project to turn Venezuela into a colony. As Kiley puts it in explaining Europe’s initial diplomatic caution:

Doing otherwise would be to acknowledge that Donald Trump has swung America first from being a friend, then to being an unreliable ally, and now, in the dawn of 2026, Trump’s America is a threat.

He said he would attack Venezuela’s mainland, and he has.

His claim to be knocking over a narco-terrorist state that has exported vast quantities of opiates to the US, and killed hundreds of thousands of its citizens, is nonsense. Opiates get into the US from Mexico, not Venezuela.

And he rightly warns:

As a premise for regime change and invasion, it is as false as the claims that Saddam Hussein was making a nuclear weapon. The invasion of that nation set off decades of pain and murder, terror and mayhem, and gave birth to Isis. It also tore at the fabric of Western democracies, as some ripped up ethics and their own laws to hunt down alleged terrorists. [my emphasis]

Latin American leaders that are led by people who are not Trump toadies like Argentine President Javier Milei are taking the threat very seriously. Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum (whose country Trump has also threatened to invade militarily), Brazil’s Lula de Silva, and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro (also threatened with military aggression by Trump) have all condemned the US kidnapping of Venezuela’s Maduro. They are responding to the clear violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty and international law, not endorsing Maduro’s authoritarian type of rule. (It’s worth recalling that Maduro was first legitimately elected as Venezuela’s President and the rightwingers’ characterization of his predecessor Hugo Chávez as a dictator is frivolous.)

[Former Mexican President AMLO (Andrés Manuel López Obrador)] he reappeared this Saturday to warn that neither Simon Bolivar nor Abraham Lincoln would accept the United States acting as a "world tyranny," and affirmed that his libertarian convictions prevent him from remaining silent in the face of what he described as an attack on Venezuelan sovereignty. "President Trump: don't indulge in self-complacency or listen to the sirens' song. To hell with the hawks; you have the capacity to act with practical judgment," AMLO said on his X account. (3)

AMLO was being generous even there in his suggestion that Trump has “the capacity to act with practical judgment.”

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose country Trump has threatened to annex, responded with diplomatic caution:

He called for a “peaceful, negotiated, and Venezuelan-led transition process that respects the democratic will of the Venezuelan people.” He also said Canada calls “on all parties to respect international law” and that the country “attaches great importance to resolution of crises through multilateral engagement.” (4)

Richard Haass, who as the former longtime President of the Council on Foreign Relations has impeccably “establishment” diplomatic credentials, discussed Saturday’s US attack on Venezuela in an interview. Let’s just say he’s skeptical of the prospects for this turning out well. (5)

Notes:

(1) Venezuela resiste a la captura de Nicolás Maduro. Página/12 04.01.2026. <https://www.pagina12.com.ar/2026/01/04/rechazo-en-venezuela-a-la-captura-de-nicolas-maduro/> (Accessed: 2026-04-01). My translation to English.

(2) Kiley, Sam (2026): This is the moment that Donald Trump unleashed anarchy. Independent 01/03/2026.<https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-trump-maduro-captured-caracas-invasion-b2894105.html> (Accessed: 2026-04-01).

(3) Latinoamérica repudió el ataque de Estados Unidos a Venezuela. Página/12 04.01.2026. <https://www.pagina12.com.ar/2026/01/03/latinoamerica-repudio-el-ataque-de-estados-unidos-a-venezuela/> (Accessed: 2026-04-01). My translation to English.

(4) Mark Carney urges Venezuelan-led transition following Maduro's capture. Politico 01/03/2026. <https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/03/canada-mark-carney-venezuela-reaction-00710081> (Accessed: 2026-04-01).

(5) Trump Strikes Venezuela — What Happens Now? - Katie Couric & Richard Haass. Katie Couric YouTube channel 01/03/2026. <https://youtu.be/9QnnBumHI2c?si=OtBGOjUTdUCZ8D0F> (Accessed: 2026-04-01).

Regime-change war in Veneuela for the New Year?

Our Peace President’s regime-change strike in Venezuela is still in the early reality-TV-shows stage right now.

But the safest prediction is that it will be a big, bloody mess. I’m trying to think of a half-feasible different option, but nothing comes to mind.

The columnist Will Bunch posted on Bluesky: (1)

As bad as the problems under Maduro have been, if the immediate results of this turn out well at all, it will be something closes to an actual miracle. That would be almost as surprising as Trump ending the Russia-Ukraine War on his first day in office.

If the miracle doesn’t happen and Venezuela has an extended period of civil strife, one of the most likely result would be a new outflow of refugees into Colombia and then further north.

The Peace President’s dwindling number of fans will presumably think this is another great “reality-TV” show event. But Will Bunch is calling attention to the fact that the various countries in the Western Hemisphere who he’s threatened with war – I count so far Denmark, Canada, Mexico, Panama, and (kinda-sorta) Colombia – must be thinking seriously about what alliances they need to make and what defense measures they need to take to protect themselves against US takeovers.

I expect that in his speech later today, the Peace President will tell us this is the greatest regime-change operation ever conducted, nobody’s ever seen anything like it, the whole world is amazed by it, blah, blah. If George W. Bush’s famous “Mission Accomplished” banner is still lying around in a White House storeroom, they can pull it out and use it as a backdrop for his speech.

At least for today, it would be conceivable (if highly unlikely) that there could be a reasonably smooth transition to a democratic government that could attract investors to modernize its oil industry.

But as the political scientist Reinhard Heinisch comments on Facebook, "Whatever happens in Caracas, the United States owns it," which is certainly spot on.

The most optimistic prediction I would make is that this will wind up as a godawful mess: I think Trump should use George W. Bush's famous "Mission Accomplished" banner as a backdrop to his press conference this afternoon.

Presumably somebody in the chaotic Trump 2.0 regime has some kind of blueprint or even active operations of some kind to facilitate putting a new regime in place. Whether that’s the good news or the bad news remains to be seen, though the latter is probably the worst case.

Argentina's President Javier Milei apparently is celebrating the regime-change strike in Venezuela. The outgoing President of Chile is condemning the attack. The new rightwing President-elect and Pinochet fan José Antonio Kast doesn't take office until March, but he's been cheering for Trump's regime-change pressure on Venezuela.

Connor Echols in an early commentary writes:

The operation marks a dramatic turn of events after months of U.S.-led escalation against the Maduro regime, which included a series of attacks on drug boats and even some targets within Venezuela. Maduro’s abduction, which appears to violate international law, comes just days after the now-ousted president offered to negotiate with Washington.

Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has requested that the U.S. provide proof of life for Maduro and his wife, who was also captured. It remains unclear whether Rodriguez will now take over as president. Advocates of regime change in Venezuela have generally hoped that this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, Maria Corina Machado, would take over after Maduro.

In a scathing editorial, the New York Times editorial board described the attack as “latter-day imperialism.” ...

It remains to be seen whether Trump will simply declare victory now that Maduro has been removed from office. A broader effort at regime change would likely require a more sustained U.S. military effort — one that may include a full-scale invasion, which could tip the country further into chaos. [my emphasis] (2)

Ben Hodges is the former commander of the US Army Europe (2014-2017) and since 2022 has often appeared on podcasts and TV broadcasts discussing the Russia-Ukraine War. Since leaving the military, he has also held the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He is also listed as part of the consulting team of Republica Consulting LLC, which lists “defense” as the first item on its “representative issue areas.” I don’t ever recall seeing an interview with him where he is identified as working for a defense consulting firm.

That doesn’t mean he isn’t well-informed on military issues. And if his firm is making money with him doing military consulting for them, he presumably has decent advice to give. And in this eight-minute clip on the Venezuela regime-changer operation, he makes some helpful observations. And he obviously thinks there are some hinky aspects of it: (3)

Notes:

(1) https://bsky.app/profile/willbunch.bsky.social/post/3mbje3uxzsk2s

(2) Echols, Connor (2026): Trump bombs Venezuela, captures Maduro. Responsible Statecraft 01/03/2026. <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-venezuela-2674844625/> (Accessed: 2026-03-01.)

(3) Trump would've had help on the inside to capture Maduro | Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges. Times Radio YouTube channel 01/03/2026. <https://youtu.be/zJYpuZaVQFk?si=n0eMnQCRmJ-TGK5U> (Accessed: 2026-03-01.)