But the safest prediction is that it will be a big, bloody mess. I’m trying to think of a half-feasible different option, but nothing comes to mind.
The columnist Will Bunch posted on Bluesky: (1)
As bad as the problems under Maduro have been, if the immediate results of this turn out well at all, it will be something closes to an actual miracle. That would be almost as surprising as Trump ending the Russia-Ukraine War on his first day in office.
If the miracle doesn’t happen and Venezuela has an extended period of civil strife, one of the most likely result would be a new outflow of refugees into Colombia and then further north.
The Peace President’s dwindling number of fans will presumably think this is another great “reality-TV” show event. But Will Bunch is calling attention to the fact that the various countries in the Western Hemisphere who he’s threatened with war – I count so far Denmark, Canada, Mexico, Panama, and (kinda-sorta) Colombia – must be thinking seriously about what alliances they need to make and what defense measures they need to take to protect themselves against US takeovers.
I expect that in his speech later today, the Peace President will tell us this is the greatest regime-change operation ever conducted, nobody’s ever seen anything like it, the whole world is amazed by it, blah, blah. If George W. Bush’s famous “Mission Accomplished” banner is still lying around in a White House storeroom, they can pull it out and use it as a backdrop for his speech.
At least for today, it would be conceivable (if highly unlikely) that there could be a reasonably smooth transition to a democratic government that could attract investors to modernize its oil industry.
But as the political scientist Reinhard Heinisch comments on Facebook, "Whatever happens in Caracas, the United States owns it," which is certainly spot on.
The most optimistic prediction I would make is that this will wind up as a godawful mess: I think Trump should use George W. Bush's famous "Mission Accomplished" banner as a backdrop to his press conference this afternoon.
Presumably somebody in the chaotic Trump 2.0 regime has some kind of blueprint or even active operations of some kind to facilitate putting a new regime in place. Whether that’s the good news or the bad news remains to be seen, though the latter is probably the worst case.
Argentina's President Javier Milei apparently is celebrating the regime-change strike in Venezuela. The outgoing President of Chile is condemning the attack. The new rightwing President-elect and Pinochet fan José Antonio Kast doesn't take office until March, but he's been cheering for Trump's regime-change pressure on Venezuela.
Connor Echols in an early commentary writes:
The operation marks a dramatic turn of events after months of U.S.-led escalation against the Maduro regime, which included a series of attacks on drug boats and even some targets within Venezuela. Maduro’s abduction, which appears to violate international law, comes just days after the now-ousted president offered to negotiate with Washington.Ben Hodges is the former commander of the US Army Europe (2014-2017) and since 2022 has often appeared on podcasts and TV broadcasts discussing the Russia-Ukraine War. Since leaving the military, he has also held the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He is also listed as part of the consulting team of Republica Consulting LLC, which lists “defense” as the first item on its “representative issue areas.” I don’t ever recall seeing an interview with him where he is identified as working for a defense consulting firm.
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has requested that the U.S. provide proof of life for Maduro and his wife, who was also captured. It remains unclear whether Rodriguez will now take over as president. Advocates of regime change in Venezuela have generally hoped that this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, Maria Corina Machado, would take over after Maduro.
In a scathing editorial, the New York Times editorial board described the attack as “latter-day imperialism.” ...
It remains to be seen whether Trump will simply declare victory now that Maduro has been removed from office. A broader effort at regime change would likely require a more sustained U.S. military effort — one that may include a full-scale invasion, which could tip the country further into chaos. [my emphasis] (2)
That doesn’t mean he isn’t well-informed on military issues. And if his firm is making money with him doing military consulting for them, he presumably has decent advice to give. And in this eight-minute clip on the Venezuela regime-changer operation, he makes some helpful observations. And he obviously thinks there are some hinky aspects of it: (3)
Notes:
(1) https://bsky.app/profile/willbunch.bsky.social/post/3mbje3uxzsk2s
(2) Echols, Connor (2026): Trump bombs Venezuela, captures Maduro. Responsible Statecraft 01/03/2026. <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-venezuela-2674844625/> (Accessed: 2026-03-01.)
(3) Trump would've had help on the inside to capture Maduro | Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges. Times Radio YouTube channel 01/03/2026. <https://youtu.be/zJYpuZaVQFk?si=n0eMnQCRmJ-TGK5U> (Accessed: 2026-03-01.)
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