Shifting US Syria policy and the Kurdish YPG

In calling an end to our involvement in Syria, ... Trump did the right thing. (In case any of you are wondering, I found it hard to type that sentence.) But true to form, he has done it in the worst possible way. There seems to have been no advance warning or interagency preparation for the decision, which means that the timing, arrangements, and broader implications have not been gamed out in advance. (It is therefore no surprise that the decision on Syria was soon followed by the announcement that Secretary of Defense James Mattis would be retiring in February). As is typical for him, Trump did not consult with U.S. allies or inform them in advance. Nor did he make any serious effort to use the U.S. presence in Syria to orchestrate a diplomatic process to stabilize the country or use the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal to elicit parallel concessions from others. Like his phony nuclear summit with Kim Jong Un or his decision to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, Trump was once again demonstrating the “art of the giveaway”: making unilateral U.S. concessions and getting nothing in return.

That's Über-Realist Stephen Walt on Trump's much-discussed change in Syrian policy by pulling out troops. (Good Riddance to America’s Syria Policy Foreign Policy 12/21/2018)

So, yes, it is possible to criticize Trump's decision while still thinking it's a good result so far as it goes that American troops are being withdrawn. Assuming Trump is serious about that.

Walt also assesses the implications for the Syrian Kurds bluntly:

A more legitimate concern is the fate of Kurdish militias that have been vital partners in the anti-Islamic State campaign. Trump’s critics rightly point out that his decision in effect abandons the Kurds, and I have some sympathy for this view. But America’s moral obligation to the Kurds is not unlimited, and—rightly or wrongly—the long-term consequences for the United States are unlikely to be significant. The Kurds were not fighting the Islamic State in order to do Uncle Sam a favor; they did it out of their own self-interest. Welcome to the brutal world of international politics: Nations and states cooperate when their interests align, but cooperation often ceases once interests diverge. [my emphasis]

And Georgio Cafiero (After Trump’s Syria Announcement, YPG Looks To Moscow And Damascus LobeLog 12/23/2018) discusses how the Syrian Kurds are acting on their current "brutal world" reality. The YPG is the Syrian Kurdish militia.

Although the U.S.-YPG partnership will not necessarily be over after U.S. forces leave Syria—Washington may continue supporting the Kurdish militia in other ways—the YPG must contend with new realities in Syria, recognizing that President Bashar al-Assad has “won” the war. The Syrian regime’s “victory” combined with the U.S. exit will likely push the YPG closer to Russia and the Damascus regime. ...

Last year the Russians began facilitating the opening of channels of communication between the YPG and Damascus. Moscow’s objective was to push the parties toward a solution whereby the U.S.-backed group integrates into the Syrian state security apparatus in exchange for some concessions from the regime to the YPG. With limited options otherwise, it appears that the YPG must capitalize on such opportunities for an agreement with the regime that possibly began taking shape amid these Russia-brokered talks.

Cafiero also mentions the important NATO consideration in play with the US and Turkey pursuing non-unified policies in Syria:

While beneficial to the YPG’s interests in continuing to operate in and control large parts of northern Syria, the U.S.-Turkish standoff in northern Syria amounted to a dangerous game of chicken. Ankara views Donald Trump’s decision to pull U.S. forces out of northern Syria, announced last week, as cause for much optimism—albeit cautious optimism—about the two NATO allies overcoming what, for years, has been an extremely painful source of tension in bilateral affairs.

And December isn't the first time the Kurdish YPG has had reason to worry about the reliability of the US cooperation with them: Joost Hiltermann, The Kurds Once Again Face American Abandonment The Atlantic 08/30/2018. Hiltermann reminds us of an important fact about the YPG's politics:

Today, the YPG faces a similar predicament. It is a Syrian affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has fought an insurgency against the Turkish state since the 1980s; Turkey, the United States, and the European Union have designated the PKK a terrorist organization. Despite the YPG’s shared genealogy with the PKK, Washington supported the group because of its battlefield prowess. As it beat back isis, the YPG took control of additional non-Kurdish territory in Syria, including the mostly Arab cities of Manbij and Raqqa.