Escalation in the Turkey-Syria conflict

The Turkey-Syria military confrontation is still heating up. (Turkey downs Syrian jets after three of its drones were targeted in Idlib Middle East Eye 03/02/2020; Juan Cole, Russia backs Damascus as it closes Syrian Airspace, Threatens to down Turkish Jets Informed Comment 03/02/2020)

Turkey launches self-defence military operation in Syria Aljazeera 03/01/2020:

One important factor here is that the conflict is currently taking place inside Syria. Turkey's involvement inside Syria was agreed with Russia at two separate meetings in the Russian city of Sochi.

The 2018 Sochi agreement had Syria's ally Russia agreeing that Turkey would be allowed to operate inside the Syrian province of Idlib (Maria Tsvetkova, Russia and Turkey agree to create buffer zone in Syria's Idlib Reuters 09/17/2018):

Russia, the biggest outside backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his fight against rebels, has been preparing for an offensive on the city of Idlib, which is controlled by rebels and now home to about 3 million people.

But after Putin’s talks with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who has opposed a military operation against the rebels in Idlib, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told reporters there would not now be an offensive.

The rebels to be targeted in that 2018 agreement were Sunni Islamist groups, which opposed the Alawite-dominated government of Syria. The Alawites are sometimes described as a variation of Shi'a Islam. In any case, the Shi'a government of Iran is supporting the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. Sunnis are a majority in Syria.

The 2019 agreement also concluded in Sochi was one in which Vladimir Putin gave Erdoğan permission to attack the Kurdish areas controlled by the leftwing Kurdish YPG in the Rojava area of northwestern Turkey: Full text of Turkey, Russia agreement on northeast Syria Aljazeera 10/22/2019

As Patrick Cockburn describes in, Erdogan’s ethnic cleansing of the Kurds is still happening now – and we have Trump to thank Independent 11/15/2019 Erdoğan had ethnic cleansing in mind:

In the case of the Turkish invasion of Syria last month, the motive is not a matter of speculation: William V Roebuck, a US diplomat stationed in northeast Syria at the time, wrote an internal memo about what he was seeing for the State Department. The memo later leaked. It is one of the best-informed analyses of what happened and is titled: “Present at the Catastrophe: Standing By as Turks Cleanse Kurds in Northern Syria and De-Stabilise our D-Isis [sic] Platform in the Northeast.”

Roebuck, with access to US intelligence about Turkish intentions, has no doubt that Ankara would like to expel the 1.8 million Kurds living in their semi-independent state of Rojava. He says: “Turkey’s military operation in northern Syria, spearheaded by armed Islamist groups on its payroll, represents an ... effort at ethnic cleansing, relying on widespread military conflict targeting part of the Kurdish heartland along the border and benefiting from several widely publicised, fear-inducing atrocities these forces committed.” [my emphasis]

Kurdish forces are currently hoping to make gains in the area of the city of Afrin, in northeast Syria, in cooperation with Syxrian forces. (Fehim Tastekin, Syrian Kurds ponder Afrin’s recapture in shadow of Idlib crisis Al-Monitor 03/02/2020)

We're currently seeing the serious failure of Erdoğan's foreign policy of the last few years. This report from the International Crisis Group by Nigar Göksel et al (Deadly Clashes in Syria’s Idlib Show Limits of Turkey’s Options 02/29/2020)looks at Turkey's current situation, including this on Turkey-Russia relations:

Turkey’s military options are limited by Russia’s current control over Syrian airspace. Nor does it have any reason to expect robust support from its traditional post-World War II allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), including the U.S., in the event of a confrontation with Russia in Syria. As for Moscow, it presumably has no interest in sabotaging its overall relations with Ankara, which, from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, have helped distance Turkey from the U.S. and NATO.

Still, tensions between the two seem bound to increase. In recent years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s strategy has leaned toward “Eurasianists” in Turkey who strongly favour close ties with Moscow. The death toll of the 27 February airstrike was shockingly high for Turkey, however, and Turkish media played up reports (denied by Moscow) that Russia did not even allow Turkish helicopters into Idlib’s airspace to evacuate the dead and wounded. All this will strengthen the hand of those who seek a rebalancing of Ankara’s strategic orientation toward Turkey’s NATO allies.

And, of course, the war is still creating large numbers of refugees. "One million people have been displaced in Syria's Idlib region since December near Turkey's southern border, causing what the United Nations says may be the worst humanitarian crisis in nine years of war." (Erdogan says he hopes for Idlib ceasefire deal in Putin talks Aljazeera 03/02/2020)

Turkey, the Kurds, and other complications with US policy in Syria

Trump's impulsive, bumbling, and corrupt approach to foreign policy has recently shown itself in the sputtering policy of withdrawing US troops from Syria and adressing the change that would make in the situation with the Damscus government, Turkey, and the Syrian Kurds.

The Kurds in northern Syria have a fighting group, YPG (People's Protection Units), that has established an momentarily independent region referred to by various names, including Rojava, from Kurdistana Rojava (Western Kurdistan). This autonomous status is not liked or officially recognized by Damascus or Ankara. The YPG has been negotiating with Bashar al-Assad's government apparently angling to have Damascus agree to protect them from Turkey in exchange for the YPG to agreeing to only limited autonomy for Rojava as paart of Syria.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan regards the YPG as a terrorist organization aligned with secessionist Kurds in Turkey led by the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party). He would like to send troops into Syria to fight them, as he has been doing during the Syrian civil war to some extent. A continuing risk with those operations has been that of US troops, which have been allied with the YPG against the Islamic State (IS), coming into military clashes with NATO ally Turkey's troops.

Russia, of course, has been a major player backing Assad's government against IS and internal rebels. Although Russia's involvement in that messy situation carries big risks for them as well, it is currently serving the Putin government's goals of becoming a more important world player. And they will also have a say in arrangements over the fate of the YPG.

Events in northern Syria, including a Turkish assault on Rojava or a Syrian assault on Irbil province, can also influence the number of refugees wanting to come into Europe. The current (2016-19) solution to mass immigration into the EU is primarily the EU's 2016 agreement with Turkey to hold refugees there in exchange for payments. Which also gives Turkey leverage against its NATO partners if they decide they need to retaliate for disagreements or military clashes in Syria.

Dilan Okcuoglu (How will Trump’s Withdrawal from Syria Affect the Turkish-Kurdish Conflict? Informed Comment 01/06/2019) explains that the Syrian Kurds "have already emerged as prominent actors who are capable of developing serious diplomatic and political ties." She also argues that US troops withdrawals are "likely to help ISIS adopt a new strategy and expand its territorial control while at the same time continuing its execution of unarmed civilians." And she gives some background on the Turkis-Kurdish conflict.

Steven Cook gives more background on Turkey's policies, including the Iranian angle, in Turkey Is Lying About Fighting ISIS Foreign Policy 12/28/2018:

In an odd way, the president’s moves on Syria and Turkey are related to his Iran policy. There are those within the administration who believe that by giving up the YPG—and agreeing to sell the Turks Patriot missiles — the United States will pull Turkey back into Washington’s orbit. This renewed American-Turkish alignment will in turn render Erdogan a willing partner to contain Iran. Yes, one of the justifications for having U.S. forces in Syria was rolling back Iran, but the Turks had never actually been a partner in this effort. They helped Iran evade sanctions during a good portion of Barack Obama’s presidency, and even now Ankara is demanding a permanent waiver to buy Iranian crude oil.

This is because Turkish officials do not regard Iran as a threat. To them, Turkey’s neighbor is an economic opportunity and provides diplomatic leverage with the United States.

This is important, because National Security Adviser John Bolton's mission in life is to start a war with Iran.

Aljazeera's Inside Story has this discussion of the current state of play, Can US and Turkey find common ground over Syrian Kurds? 01/08/2019:

Turkey is making threats (Turkey says will launch Syria attack if US delays troop pullout Aljazeera 01/10/2019):

Turkey will go ahead with an offensive against Syrian Kurdish fighters in Syria if the United States delays the withdrawal of its troops from the war-torn country, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said.

"If the [withdrawal] is put off with ridiculous excuses like Turks are massacring Kurds, which do not reflect the reality, we will implement this decision," he told NTV channel on Thursday.

Cavusoglu said a military operation against the US-allied Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which it has pledged to carry out in northeastern Syria, is not dependent on the pullout of US troops.

Bolton added to the diplomatic confusion by seeming to say that Trump's troops pullout wouldn't happen any time soon. Erdoğan refused to attend a scheduled meeting with Bolton over his statements. ("Bolton hat einen schweren Fehler begangen" Wiener Zeitung 09.01.2019; Carlotta Gall and Mark Landler, Turkish President Snubs Bolton Over Comments That Turkey Must Protect Kurds New York Times 01/09/2019)

Bolton also said that Turkey had to protect the Syrian Kurds. Which he should. But this is where the NATO alliance with Turkey adds complications. On the one hand, the US has a treaty obligation to protect Turkey against aggression, although it does not mean the support is automatic. So the US has a legitimate interest in Turkey not invading another sovereign state, in this case Syria, which is what cross-border incursions actually are. Implusive decisions and sloppy diplomacy are not how the US should be approaching this situation.