Showing posts with label hugo chávez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hugo chávez. Show all posts

Sunday, February 10, 2019

A Mike Pence Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine?

A Facebook friend posted a link to this New Statesman piece by George Eaton, The Stalin of the Caribbean: how Nicolás Maduro betrayed the Venezuelan revolution 02/06/2019:
During the 2013 presidential election he claimed that Chávez’s spirit visited him in the form of “a little bird”. On another occasion, Maduro compared himself to Stalin. “I am just like Stalin. The moustache is exactly the same,” he remarked in 2015.

The comparison extends beyond the merely aesthetic. Like Stalin, a party bureaucrat who assumed power after the pioneering Lenin, Maduro will be rembered [sic] not as the revolution’s saviour but as its gravedigger.
Part of the problem of mentioning war propaganda claims is that you wind up spreading them.

I'm going to make a wild guess here. I'm guessing that if Leon Trotsky, or Grigory Zinovyev, or Lev Kamenev had proclaimed themselves head of the government, had been recognized as such by the governments of the US and various European countries, made no secret about taking orders directly from Washington or London or Germany, and had declared themselves ready to accept foreign military intervention to install them as actual head of government in the USSR, they probably would not be giving public speeches and media interviews and driving around Moscow unmolested by the police two and a half weeks after they declared themselves Head Honcho. Which is the case today with Juan Guaidó in Venezuela.

Have I mentioned yet how this is one of the weirdest coup attempts I've ever heard of?

Not that it will make any difference to the characters involved in this effort speadheaded by future Great Statesman and Savior of the American Republic Mike Pence, professional warmonger and National Security Adviser John Bolton, and Iran-Contra criminal Elliott Abrams. But here's a slight bit of perspective on this particular bit of propaganda, from Jon Lee Anderson, Nicolás Maduro’s Accelerating Revolution New Yorker 12/11/2017, describing a public event:
Delcy Rodríguez, the [Constituent] assembly’s president, led a tour of an exhibition of photographs documenting the President’s life. There were photos showing him as a young union leader, with Chávez, with Fidel Castro; one showed him as a toddler wearing a mariachi’s sombrero. Rodríguez narrated as the group walked: “You’re a good man, Mr. President. Here you are with the Pope.” She came to a black-and-white image of a young Maduro, addressing a crowd with a handheld megaphone. “You’re a man of many facets, which have not been shown, because of the media lynching you’ve been subjected to, Mr. President,” she said. “But here, in the constituent assembly, we want to show you as you really are.”

When the tour was over, Maduro, smiling broadly, thanked Rodríguez, and joked about how he was usually portrayed as a villainous “tropical Stalin.” Turning to the audience, he said, “No one will take the good out of me. In all my humility, here I am.” [my emphasis]
Also of some interest from the same article:
... as José (Pepe) Mujica, a left-wing former President of Uruguay, told me, “What helps Maduro most is the nature of his opposition.” The opposition is divided into three major parties and several smaller ones, with little in common other than the desire to resist Maduro. After the elections in 2015, it appeared united by the mandate to recall him but then spent months bickering over the right way to do so. During the protests, as scores of young demonstrators were killed, it was unable to convert widespread outrage into a political program. “The Venezuelan opposition is truly the gang that cannot shoot straight,” an American official who has worked for decades in the region told me. “Over the years, they’ve had every opportunity to kick out Chávez and now Maduro, and they always fuck it up.”

Few people in Venezuela seem to believe that the opposition speaks for the poor, or for the country’s large mixed-race population. When I visited early in Chávez’s Presidency, business executives—who were universally white—referred to him unabashedly as “that ape.” With Maduro, the disdain is subtler, but only a little: they call him “that bus driver.” In response to Maduro, the opposition has tilted even farther to the right, reaching out to conservative allies, including the government of Mariano Rajoy, in Spain. Last February, Lilian Tintori, the wife of Leopoldo López, met with Donald and Melania Trump to talk about human rights in Venezuela. (When Tintori spoke of her husband’s imprisonment, Melania reportedly commiserated that the White House could feel similarly confining.) A photograph of Tintori posing with Trump circulated in Venezuela, where it was widely seen as evidence of crass opportunism.
Threat inflation is one of the worst plagues of American foreign policy. "Hitler", "Stalin" and "Munich" are three stock magic words in the incantation.

I wonder how long it will be before the Triad of War (Pence, Bolton, and Abrams) start calling Maduro "Hitler."

If we're going to have open US military action in Venezuela, we have to get there because we only even go to war against "Hitler". Ho Chi Minh was "Hitler", Saddam Hussein was "Hitler", etc.

To be fair to George Eaton's piece, this is a decent capsule description of recent history and one important to remember:
Between 1998 and 2012 GDP per capita more than tripled, and the country, long exploited by an entrenched oligarchy, achieved the lowest level of inequality in the region.

But its overdependence on oil – the “resource curse” that has haunted Venezuela – left it perilously exposed to a 40 per cent collapse in prices in 2014. ... The haphazard nationalisation of companies – with experienced managers removed – led to a sharp fall in investment and the rise of a new kleptocratic elite.
Venezuela is a petrostate, hugely dependent on world oil prices. It's reasonable to ask why the Chávez and Maduro regimes didn't do more to diversify the economy or invest more capital in development of the oil industry itself. Americans and Europeans have a bad habit of using "corruption" as a blanket description for the problems of any country poorer than their own. Which is partially true in Veneuela's case. But that belongs to the "curse" part of the blessing-curse of being a petrostate. That's true in good times as well as bad. And corruption doesn't stop the bonanza of high oil price years. For people who pay attention to such things, the Chávez government did have some success in promoting the construction industry and made a serious attempt to develop Venezuela's stagnant agriculture. But "keepin' 'em down on the farm" proved to be in insuperable challenge when urban opportunities generated by the oil industry were so attractice.

Does Guaidó's "government"-in-waiting have such plans? Will American TV pundits ask? (Yes, those are rhetorical questions!)

"Protecting" Latin America from Europe, Theodore Roosevelt style
(Wikimedia Commons)
I was just reminded recently that there was a (Teddy) Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine in 1905 after England, Germany, and Italy blockaded Venezuela in 1902. It basically said the US would block other powers from intervening but we would do it any time we wanted. From President Roosevelt's message of 1905 on the subject (Encyclopædia Britannica Ultimate Reference Suite, 2014):
It must be understood that under no circumstances will the United States use the Monroe Doctrine as a cloak for territorial aggression. We desire peace with all the world, but perhaps most of all with the other peoples of the American continent. There are, of course, limits to the wrongs which any self-respecting nation can endure. It is always possible that wrong actions toward this nation or toward citizens of this nation in some state unable to keep order among its own people, unable to secure justice from outsiders, and unwilling to do justice to those outsiders who treat it well, may result in our having to take action to protect our rights; but such action will not be taken with a view to territorial aggression, and it will be taken at all only with extreme reluctance and when it has become evident that every other resource has been exhausted.

Moreover, we must make it evident that we do not intend to permit the Monroe Doctrine to be used by any nation on this continent as a shield to protect it from the consequences of its own misdeeds against foreign nations. If a republic to the south of us commits a tort against a foreign nation, such as an outrage against a citizen of that nation, then the Monroe Doctrine does not force us to interfere to prevent punishment of the tort, save to see that the punishment does not assume the form of territorial occupation in any shape.

The case is more difficult when it refers to a contractual obligation. Our own government has always refused to enforce such contractual obligations on behalf of its citizens by an appeal to arms. It is much to be wished that all foreign governments would take the same view. But they do not; and in consequence we are liable at any time to be brought face to face with disagreeable alternatives. On the one hand, this country would certainly decline to go to war to prevent a foreign government from collecting a just debt; on the other hand, it is very inadvisable to permit any foreign power to take possession, even temporarily, of the custom-houses of an American republic in order to enforce the payment of its obligations; for such temporary occupation might turn into a permanent occupation.

The only escape from these alternatives may at any time be that we must ourselves undertake to bring about some arrangement by which so much as possible of a just obligation shall be paid. It is far better that this country should put through such an arrangement, rather than allow any foreign country to undertake it. To do so insures the defaulting republic from having to pay debt of an improper character under duress, while it also insures honest creditors of the republic from being passed by in the interest of dishonest or grasping creditors. Moreover, for the United States to take such a position offers the only possible way of insuring us against a clash with some foreign power. The position is, therefore, in the interest of peace as well as in the interest of justice. It is of benefit to our people; it is of benefit to foreign peoples; and most of all it is really of benefit to the people of the country concerned. [my emphasis]
So I guess we don't need a Mike Pence Corollary to send in the troops to install Juan Guaidó. But with seriously bad actors like Pence, Bolton, and Abrams running the show, this will not end well. At this point, it's only a question of how much damage they will do.

Saturday, January 26, 2019

The Trump-Pence Venezuela regime change operation

The Venezuela regime change operation is part of a repeating nightmare.

For instance, the ghost of Iran-Contra is still handing around. And shaping policy: Nahal Toosi, Elliott Abrams, prominent D.C. neocon, named special envoy for Venezuela Politico 01/25/2019.
Abrams was deputy national security adviser in the George W. Bush administration and was instrumental in Middle East policy at the time, including supporting the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

There were also allegations that he supported a military coup attempt in Venezuela in 2002, damaging the U.S. relationship with the government there after the plot ultimately failed.

Abrams held multiple positions at the State Department under President Ronald Reagan, including assistant secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs.

He was one of the Reagan administration’s fiercest advocates of armed support for Nicaraguan rebels and thus becae caught up in the Iran-Contra scandal.

In 1991, he pleaded guilty to two misdemeanor counts of withholding information from Congress about secret efforts to aid the rebels. President George H.W. Bush pardoned him the next year.
I'll mention here Venezuela Analysis, a website that has generally been sympathetic to the goals of the Bolivarian Revolution, i.e., the policies of President Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro. (See: the Wikipedia entry on it.) I regard it as a site worth paying attention to. Although it deserves to be read with a sensibly critical eye, like all other news sources.

Ricardo Vaz reports for Venezuela Analysis, Venezuela’s Maduro and Guaido Give Dueling Speeches as US Begins Diplomatic Withdrawal 01/25/2019:
Standing alongside fellow members of the legislative body, which has been considered “null and void” by judicial authorities since 2016, Guaido addressed a crowd of supporters and press in the Plaza Bolivar of Chacao, an upper middle class opposition stronghold in eastern Caracas.

Guaido’s speech contained several appeals to the armed forces, calling on them to depose the Maduro government. He warned that the Venezuelan military would face an “important test” shortly, related to the delivery of requested “humanitarian aid.” On Thursday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pledged US $20 million in aid to Guaido’s “transition government.”

Guaido also reiterated several times the three components of the opposition’s “transition route”: an end to what they describe as President Maduro’s“usurpation,” the forming of a “transitional government” and the convening of elections. In addition, he defied Maduro’s decisions to sever diplomatic relations with Washington and close all Venezuelan diplomatic missions in the US, telling US and Venezuelan personnel they could stay where they are.
This New York Times report reports something remarkable that should be noticed, though the piece itself doesn't flag it: Ana Vanessa Herrero and Nick Cumming-Bruce, Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Calls for More Protests ‘if They Dare to Kidnap Me’ 01/25/2019. Rebel President Juan Guaidó is recognzed by the US, the EU and numerous other governments as the legitimate leader of the Venzuelan government. After proclaiming himself the leader, even though he has no control over the military or any other elements of the Executive branch of the government, he took refuge in the Colombian Embassy.

On Friday, he emerged to give a public speech. And the supposedly dictatorial government of Venuela apparently made no attempt to arrest him or prevent his speech.

What-if-it-were-happening-her comparisons often seem to me to fall flat. Because there are very distinctive features to each country's situation. But it's worth a brief excercise in this moment. Nancy Pelosi declares herself the legitimate leader of the US government, then takes refuge in the Mexican Embassy. Most of the countries in North and South America as well as the European Union formally recognize Warren as the head of government and declare the Trump-Pence Administration is now the former government. And even threaten to intervene militarily. If Warren a couple of days later and gave a public speech in Washington, D.C., does anyone think that she would be arrested? Especially since FOX News would have been demanding it non-stop along with the all the mainstream media and most left-leaning outlets. Democratic Senators and Representatives would be competing with Republicans to be most militant in attacking her and demanding she be arrested.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke to the press on Friday (Remarks on Venezuela; US State Department) announcing the Abrahms appintment. I haven't noticed the Trump-pence Administration describing the effort to remove the current de facto Venzuelan government (Maduro's) as a "reime change" operation. Why would they? Their official position, and that of the EU and all the other countries that have recognized Guaidó as the legimate head of government. So it's officially Maduro who is the usurper. (And, in Pompeo's words a "cruel dictator in Venezuela") And our policy is now to prevent regime change, which in this weird diplomatic fantasy would be the actual Maduro government continuing to function and Claiming to be the legtimiate government. Pompeo:
... Elliott will have responsibility for all things related to our efforts to restore democracy in Venezuela. It’s a global challenge. There are multiple dimensions to how we hope to assist the Venezuelans in achieving democracy there, and he will be responsible for leading that effort.

We have an enormous team here that’s done truly remarkable work to date to get us to the point we are at today, and they’ve done this over certainly my eight months, but long preceding that as well. I’m incredibly proud of the work that our State Department team has done to date. Elliott will now lead our effort that relates directly to our efforts on behalf of the Venezuelan people.

I would expect, though, that his first task will be to get up to speed and then travel with me to New York tomorrow morning for the UN Security Council meeting. And after that, I couldn’t tell you where it will take him. Wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up traveling to the region, but what – the road ahead will be driven by the demands of the Venezuelan people and how we can assist them in achieving the outcome that America wants them to achieve. [my emphasis]
The State Department stated on Wednesday after the coup announcment, which the US and various allies were obviously expecting and had agreed upon, Continuing U.S. Diplomatic Presence in Venezuela 01/23/2019:
The United States stands with interim President Juan Guaido, the democratically elected National Assembly, and the people of Venezuela as they peacefully restore constitutional order to their country. We stand ready to support interim President Guaido as he establishes a transitional government and carries out his constitutional duties as interim President, including determining the status of diplomatic representatives in the United States and other countries.

We welcome interim President Guaido’s directive to all diplomatic missions in Venezuela that Venezuela intends to maintain diplomatic relations with all countries. The United States maintains diplomatic relations with Venezuela and will conduct our relations with Venezuela through the government of interim President Guaido, who has invited our mission to remain in Venezuela. The United States does not recognize the Maduro regime as the government of Venezuela. Accordingly the United States does not consider former president Nicolas Maduro to have the legal authority to break diplomatic relations with the United States or to declare our diplomats persona non grata. [my emphasis]
Kirk Semple states the painfully obvious when he writes, "he United States’ support this week of an opposition leader as Venezuela’s interim president seemed to follow a pattern familiar to Latin America, reawakening suspicions of Washington’s intentions in the region and calling to mind American interventions in recent decades." (Echoes of the Past in Venezuela Crisis, but Heard More Lightly New York Times 01/24/2019)

I think we can say that it's probably not a coincidence that our immediate southern neighbor Mexico has declined to recognize the Guaidó strawman government.

The allegedly isolationist Trump-Pence Administration seems to be going full neocon in Latin America policy. This report by Nora Gámez Torres, U.S. considers putting Cuba on terror list over island’s support of Venezuela’s Maduro Miami Herald 01/25/2019, indicates that the official line from Sen. Marco Rubio and a "senior administrative official" is that the only reason the Venezuelan militray isn't support Guaidó's rebel regime-change government is because Cuban advisers are spying on them.

Dang, did Rex Tillerson lay off every experienced propaganda writer in the State Department?