Foreign policy concerns on US election day and beyond

Trump in his continuing, obvious mental decline has been threatening to resume the Iran War after the election. And there’s news about some US strikes resuming already:

The ⁠US launched limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island late on Monday, ⁠according to reports in US media, hours after vice-president JD Vance said he was optimistic diplomatic efforts to end the war were moving in the right direction.

The strikes were reported as being “defensive”, and not thought to be a signal of a return to full hostilities, but came on the eve of crucial midterm elections in which Donald Trump’s Republican party is expected to be punished by voters for the cascading effect the war has had on the US cost of living. (1)

There will be plenty of foreign policy drama after today’s election. With the US President unable to conduct anything resembling normal diplomacy. And the Iran War is obviously not the only major foreign policy issue right now.

Here’s Anatol Lieven assessing “Who’s Actually Winning the Ukraine War?” (2)

Short version: It’s still a nasty war of attrition. And, for better or worse, Russia has the advantage. And without a minimum of competent diplomacy from Washington, any stable halt in the war can scarcely be expected. It’s an ugly picture. And there will likely be continuing jockeying, vague threats, and low-level shadow war. And headlines like this: UK and European peacekeepers in Ukraine would be allowed to fire back at Russians Guardian 11/03/2026.

John Mearsheimer gives one of his dour but highly informative perspectives on the concept of limited nuclear war. With the US now a highly dubious entity as a NATO ally, this is increasingly important for European defense planning. We’ll be hearing a lot more about it. And very possibly in the Middle East, too. (3)

And, of course, this will be a big week for American political news!

Notes:

(1) Yerushalmy, Jonathan (2026): US reportedly strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island as Vance voices optimism about a deal. Guardian 11/03/2026. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/03/us-strikes-irans-qeshm-island> (Accessed: 2026-03-11).

(2) Quincy Institute YouTube channel 11/01/2026. <https://youtu.be/PnwrKy9uxx8?si=r5pJMIZqlC80FoqB> (Accessed: 2026-11-02).

(3) International Law Only Binds the Weak. John Mearsheimer-Offensive Realism YouTube channel 11/02/2026. <https://youtu.be/z7JtiVQQPqs?si=76DnBHNxfNmgWV34> (Accessed: 2026-11-02).