Democrats coming on strong in swing states

One of the surprises of this election year – a pleasant surprise for Democrats – is that several states that were considered likely Republican ones for this year’s election have turned into very competitive ones for the Democrats.

YouGov posted this table on October 7 on the race in seven states:

Florida: Democratic state representative Angie Nixon achieved a surprise win in the Democratic Senate primary. Commonweal recently described her race against Republican incumbent Ashley Moody this way:

Nixon has shrewdly put economic pressures at the center of her campaign … After her primary victory she … restyled herself as an independent-minded populist, affiliated with an array of progressive organizations but not in lockstep with any single one. That effort may neutralize crude attempts by J. D. Vance and Moody’s other surrogates to slander her as un-American. “I’m aligned with what folks have referred to as ‘the FDR Democrats,’” she has said, emphasizing that her motivation, as a café owner and former single mom, is to fight for working families.

Nixon is being actively supported by Sen. Bernie Sanders. She has heavily criticized her opponent Moody for having approved the diversion $10 million in public funds “to political action committees - one controlled by [Republican] Gov. Ron DeSantis’ Chief of Staff James Uthmeier - that helped defeat 2024 ballot initiatives on abortion and marijuana.” (USA Today)

Commonweal uses the term “big tent” populism to describe Angie Nixon’s Florida campaign, a term which could describe other 2026 Democratic candidates, as well. While there have been hard-fought primary campaigns involving candidates that clearly identify as progressives and others who identify as more centrist, the losing candidates in these races have rallied around the winners.

Kansas: The Democratic Senate nominee in Kansas is Rev. Adam Hamilton, Methodist pastor (and former Republican) who positions himself as a centrist: "I'm a liberal conservative and a conservative liberal, depending on the issue and the day of the week." His opponent is incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Polls currently show Hamilton with a lead of 1%-5%. (NYT) The Kansas City Star notes that Kansas “hasn’t elected a Senator from that party in nearly 100 years has led Republican President Donald Trump to plan a visit next week.” Whether a Trump appearance on his behalf will help Marshall more than it hurts him!

Michigan: The Democratic Senate in Michigan hardly needs an introduction at this point. He’s family physician Abdul El-Sayed who provokes hysterical fantasies in Donald Trump and other Republican critics. He is very mediagenic and draws support from both progressive and more moderate Democrats. Barack Obama and Kamala Harris have expressed their support for him. El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers, who is adopting the normal level of Republican civility by running an ad “an ad featuring a young Persian American man arguing that El-Sayed is too closely linked to radical Islam and al-Qaeda.” But Rogers is leery of being tied too closely “an unpopular president; he’s tried to mildly break from Trump over the trade war in Canada, for example.” (American Prospect)

Nebraska: The state Democratic party has endorsed Independent Dan Osborn in the Senate race against Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts. Osborn is a former union leader who led a strike at the Omaha Kellogg’s plant in 2021. The winner of the Senate Democratic primary was Cindy Burbank, who declined the nomination after the election to endorse Osborn. Burbank’s opponent in the primary was William Forbes, who certainly looked like a “spoiler” candidate. Forbes told CNN that he had voted multiple times for Trump. (Nebraska Examiner) Osborn has produced a catchy ad taking a populist-tinged poke at Sen. Ricketts for his support of data centers and tech oligarchs:

New Hampshire:

In New Hampshire, four-term Democratic nominee Chris Pappas is facing incumbent Republcan Sen. John Sununu. Retired Gen. Don Bolduc, who ran again Sununu in the Republican primary, has endorsed the Democrat Pappas for the general election. As the YouGov table indicates, Pappas is showing in the polls as a likely win. Pappas is also highlighting his opposition to big tax subsidies for data centers:

Ohio:

Former Senator and Democratic stalwart Sherrod Brown is running against the incumbent John Husted, who was appointed to take the Senate seat vacated by J.D. Vance when he became Vice President. Brown is also targeting data centers. He also has taken an aggressive approach to throwing sleazy polemics back in the Republicans’ faces:

Texas: Texas in the past produced statewide Democratic victories like Sen. Lyndon Johnson and Gov. Ann Richards. Democratic Sen. nominee James Talarico has been running an aggressive Senate campaign against incumbent Republican Ken Paxton, an exceptionally unattractive political figure. A former Presbyterian seminarian, Talarico is also explicitly talking about humane Christian religious principles in a way reminiscent of Jimmy Carter.

Talarico is also making a clever pitch accusing Paxton of being anti-puppy.

And Texas Republicans seem to be really worried about their party’s prospects next month., including the gubernatorial race, in which Regina Hinojosa is the Democratic nominee.

This post originally appeared on the ProDA-Progressive Caucus of Democrats Abroad Substack.