Paul Krugman during the post-2008 period promoted a comment from the economist Rudiger Dohrnbush about the 1994 Mexican debt crisis: “It took forever and then it took a night.”
Something similar might be said of the year 2026 in American foreign policy.
Anatol Lieven spoke to Tom Switzer about the protracted war of attrition in the Russia-Ukraine War: (2)
Über-Realist John Mearsheimer talks about the current situation of the war and comments he heard on a recent visit to Russia: (3)
Trita Parsi also discusses the disaster of the US-Israel War on Iran: (4)
A couple of things stand out in these videos. One is how drastically the previous US status has declined. Some of that was more-or-less inevitable as China became relatively more powerful and as countries like India and Brazil became more influential. But we can hardly say it has been a smoothly managed decline over the last six decades or so.
But there are longer trends, and there are the specifics of diplomacy and military policy. There is an old saying: It’s easier to get into a war than to get out of one. In the case of the Russia-Ukraine War and the current Iran War, the US could declare it’s just stopping its participation in both. In practice, though, any half-stable peace settlement in both cases would require complicated diplomacy conducted by competent diplomats. And, as the discussions above indicate, the Trump Administration has been incapable of that in both cases.
The current diplomatic gambit of Canada becoming a possible “associate member” of the EU is only one illustration of the tailspin in which basic US diplomacy finds itself. Currently there is no such thing as an EU “associate member,” by the way, though the EU does have elaborate diplomatic networks, including official “partnerships.” The EU is more flexible and creative than American pundits tend to think. So associate membership could become A Thing. It’s worth noting that becoming a full member of the EU includes an explicit mutual defense commitment. So Canada joining such an alliance would inevitably been seen as a negative thing by the US, and not just by Trumpistas.
Sometimes, plain incompetence plays a bigger role in statecraft than we would like to think.
A further comment on the status of the war in Ukraine. It’s a stalemate. Since mid-2023, it’s become a protracted version of the trench warfare of the First World War, only this time with efficient drones instead of rudimentary air forces. There are still respectable media evaluations claiming that Russia is on the ropes and if Western nations keep pouring aid into Ukraine and cheering for the home team (Ukraine), then Ukraine will somehow someday win and Russia will be humiliated and revert to the internal mess of the early 1990s. Or something like that.
This is where serious diplomacy by the US in conjunction with the EU countries and Britain could be useful in coming up with a Korea-style settlement, which seems to be the most optimistic prospect for Ukraine and Europe in the immediately foreseeable future. No European country is going to commit forces to direct combat with Russia inside Ukraine in the current situation. And by most accounts, it certainly appears that Russia is able and willing to continue the war of attrition indefinitely. The Russia-hawk crew in the foreign policy establishment still seems to be committed to the fantasy that the US-backed mujahedeen “freedom fighters” in Afghanistan were what brought down the USSR. And if the Ukrainians will stay willing to continue the war, that will weaken Russia.
But actual stable settlements for Ukraine and the Middle East requires competent diplomacy. And the Trump 2.0 regime seems incapable of that in either region.
Notes:
(1) Interviews-Dr. Rudi Dornbusch. Frontline website, n/d. <https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/mexico/interviews/dornbusch.html> (Accessed: 2026-17-09).
(2) Is Ukraine winning the war? Lieven. Switzerland with Tom Switzer YouTube channel 09/16/2026. <https://www.youtube.com/live/2HIs-InkolM?si=Byx44T32dXKOQXR9> (Accessed: 2026-17-09).
(3) John Mearsheimer-Offensive Realism YouTube channel 09/16/2026. <https://youtu.be/M0MpV8RdDlk?si=08IrJSPiv3AkMXjJ> (Accessed: 2026-17-09).
(4) Why some US allies are quietly rooting for Iran. Middle East Eye YouTube channel 09/16/2026. <https://youtu.be/42IQjld0on0?si=d9PIG4tpn4D9L2-6> (Accessed: 2026-17-09).
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