What’s up with the US’ new partner (?!) Venezuela?

A new editorial in El País takes a quick look at the status of governance in Venezuela after the early 2026 US intervention in which the President, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife were kidnapped and sent to the US, where they are still awaiting trial on drug trafficking charges. The trial isn’t scheduled to begin until June 1 of 2027. The editorial states:

The enormous expectation aroused by the announcement of a beginning of a dialogue between Chavismo [Maduro’s supporters] and the opposition in Venezuela was diminished this Saturday, when the rapprochement was limited to a brief phone call between Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly, and the opposition Dinorah Figuera. It is still a very small step for a country shocked by a humanitarian emergency, aggravated by the tragedy of the earthquakes that caused more than 5,000 deaths, which needs to move once and for all towards a democratic future with real political plurality and free elections. Both parties committed to an upcoming in-person meeting.

This rapprochement takes place under the rules drawn up by the United States, which in practice maintains control of the country after the military intervention on January 3 in which it captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, now in prison in New York awaiting trial. The State Department is the declared arbiter of Venezuelan institutions, and it is the U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who is leading the process. (1)

This is a genuinely weird situation. On the surface, it appears that Maduro was betrayed by his own government and armed forces, which basically allowed him to be taken without serious resistance. And if his government (without him) was totally willing to cooperate with the US – even in replacing Maduro – how much of a threat was Venezuela to US security? Or to anyone else’s?

Maduro before his kidnapping had offered massive concessions for US oil companies, which the replacement government also did. The acting President, Delcy Rodríguez – whose name isn’t even mentioned in the El País editorial – even created essentially a slush fund with oil revenues that is under Donald Trump’s control. As CNN reports:

On [July 27], President Donald Trump said his administration has collected more than $13 billion from selling Venezuelan oil since Maduro’s capture.

The US government has said it will hold the proceeds from the sale of Venezuelan oil in US-controlled accounts in a “custodial” capacity and intends to return them to Venezuela. Democrats in Congress have pushed for more transparency over this process. (2)

Yes, I’m sure all the money will go back to Venezuela for schools and hospitals and public infrastructure … (Do I need to specify that’s sarcasm?)

Shocking as it may be, the Trumpistas don’t seem to be particularly focused on establishing a functioning liberal democratic system in Venezuela:

Nevertheless, Trump’s government cannot also try to condition the vote of Venezuelans or impose the actors of a dialogue so awaited by the population while leaving out the opposition sectors with the greatest support, such as the one led by María Corina Machado. The opponent who led the electoral defeat of Chavismo maintains a discreet profile and has said that she will not be an obstacle.

A Trumpian version of “democracy” for Venezuela. Is there anyone who actually believes this Trump and his gang of misfits can or will set up anything but an authoritarian system? They may not even try to do that, if the current government is so corrupt that they are happy to be America’s satraps in Venezuela.

But that brings us again to the fact that this is apparently essentially the same government that was in place on January 1,  just without Maduro as the top figure. So why again was this regime such a threat that we had to kidnap its leader so that his second-in-command could head the government? Especially since Maduro himself was also offering enormous concessions to the US?

This is looking more and more like the kind of “gunboat diplomacy” that the US has practiced for way too long in Latin America. This has often not worked out well. To put it mildly. An example from 1914 comes to mind. (3)

Notes:

(1) Tímido deshielo en Venezuela. El País 08/03/2026. <https://elpais.com/opinion/2026-08-03/timido-deshielo-en-venezuela.html> (Accessed: 2026-03-08). My translation to English.

(2) Cooban, Anna (2026): ‘The time is now’: Investors gear up to enter Venezuela despite enormous risks. CNN Business 08/02/2026. <https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/02/business/venezuelan-oil-foreign-investor-event> (Accessed: 2026-03-08).

(3) Warren Zevon “Veracruz” Live at La Locomotive on 2/5/1988. WarrenZevonArchive YouTube channel 12/03/2022. <https://youtu.be/2KdQQe5IOBY?si=ebvdbSuxVURGz2Uy&t=122> (Accessed: 2026-05-08).