War from Poland (?) to Yemen

A reminder that long wars bring lots of problems.

A Russian missile has landed and exploded 50 kilometers or so inside Poland’s border with Ukraine. (1)

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk is initially playing down the significance of the event, saying “there are no reasons to think Poland was the intended target for this missile.”

NATO headquarters in Europe issued a statement:

In response to a Russian missile of currently unknown type that entered Polish airspace and later crashed into Polish territory - one of many missiles fired by Russia at Ukraine overnight - NATO and Poland activated their air and ground defences.

Two NATO fighter jets, which were Polish F-16s, a NATO Multinational Multi-Role Tanker Transport Unit Airbus A330 refuelling aircraft, a Polish Saab 340 Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft, and a Polish Mi-24 helicopter, were scrambled.

NATO is in close contact with the Polish authorities about the violation of Poland’s airspace.

The Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), General Alexus G. Grynkewich, spoke earlier today with Poland’s Chief of Defence General Wiesław Kukuła about NATO and Poland’s response to the incident, which remains under investigation.

SACEUR underlined that NATO will continue to take all necessary measures to defend NATO territory.

This a reminder of a couple of things. One is that it’s not unusual for adversary and potentially-adversary powers to violate each other’s air space occasionally to test the response of the other country. They don’t usually do that by firing a missile with an explosive warhead. In this case, it occurred during a big attack by Russia on neighboring Ukraine, so it could have been a mistake. And Poland’s initial response seems to treat it as such.

The DW News report embedded above discusses some about NATO’s procedures like Article 4 consultations.

But this is also a reminder to all the NATO allies that in case Russia actually does attack a NATO member, the allies have an obligation to back Poland (or any other NATO country) in such a conflict with Russia. But no one can count on the Trump 2.0 regime to join into such a defensive coalition. Of course, one missile is only one missile. And Russia will surely be looking closely at how the NATO capitals are responding behind the scenes and what adjustments they may make to their defensive posture.

Ukraine has also attacked an Iranian ship in support of the US-Israeli war effort against Iran, which is being backed by Russia and China. One would think Ukraine has enough worries as it is. This could encourage more support to Iran by Russia and China. Because the US is now in a tangled nightmare of a war in the Middle East in which combatants/targets so far include Iran, Iraq, Syria (Israel occupies part of it), Lebanon (Israel occupies even more of it and Lebanon’s more important military force is the Iran-allied Hezbollah militia), Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen (the Houthis), Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt.

And on top of that, Israel has been threatening Türkiye.

I guess fans of Left Behind-type End Times fantasies may be rejoicing that The End Is Near. (Aren’t they always?) But this don’t look good to me. BTW, Iran alone is bigger than Germany, France, Spain and Great Britain combined.

From Google Maps:

What the hell are we doing?

And all this is taking place while the world’s strongest military power, the US, seems to be incapable of conducting anything like normal diplomacy in either the Iran War or the Russia-Ukraine War.

By the way, Iran alone is bigger than Germany, France, Spain and Great Britain combined.

Scott Lucas updates his audience on the most recent developments on the Trump Report of the Times of London/Times Radio. (2)

Notes:

(1) Missile crashes in Poland during massive Russian strike on Ukraine. DW News YouTube channel 07/30/2026. <https://youtu.be/lBuh_uwXXjY?si=l02riS1-jExCmWBn> (Accessed: 2026-30-07).

(2) This is the ‘biggest lie’ Trump has ever told. Trump Report and Scott Lucas Worldview YouTube channel 07/30/2026. <https://youtu.be/UUH6ZazaGBo?si=WksdJuleqDp0s4Eo> (Accessed: 2026-30-07).