The Iran War disaster, authored by the US and Israel, proceeds

The US and Israel began the current war against Iran on February 28. It’s a conflict that has already damaged the world economy and the prewar order (such as it was) in the Middle East.

Israel has been pursuing a goal of regional hegemony in the Middle East. It aims to remain as the dominant regional military power with the ability to periodically attack neighboring countries in “mowing the grass” operations of the kind it has been running for decades in Gaza and Lebanon. It prefers a neighborhood of “failed states” that are unable to put up any substantive military opposition to whatever Israel decides to do. It has long since seen Iran as the most threatening regional adversary, which is why politicians like Benjamin Netanyahu has been advocating for the US to go to war against Iran. Netanyahu’s goal is not to have stable, responsible regimes that can be good neighbors. His goal is for Israel to be surrounded by failed states that Israel can periodically attack militarily with relative impunity.

Wars like the current one can result in important things changing quickly. A particular factor in the current situation is that the President of the United States is physically and mentally unfit for the job, with his cognitive health visibly deteriorating. The Trump 2.0 regime is also seemingly unique in US history in its inability to conduct normal diplomacy. The Lebanese international relations scholar Gilbert Achcar has some important observations about how the lessons the Trump – or at least the Trump team - seems to have taken from the Iraq War. Though in the current war, they have reverted to basically the neocon approach, with the results that we are now seeing unfold.

As Achcar summarized it in February:

Trump’s second-term neo-imperial policy combines a cynicism that some have mistaken for honesty with a policy of brute force in the service of a worldview that displays a taste for both supremacism (America First) and Lebensraum – the ‘Donroe doctrine’, a new version of the Monroe Doctrine that claimed the Americas as the US’s exclusive preserve. [my emphasis] (1)

In May, Sania Faisal El-Husseini describe Israel’s current policy as follows:

U.S. and Israeli strategies toward the three fronts; Iran, Palestine, and Lebanon, show clear similarities. They pursue a single objective: eliminating any remaining political opposition to Israel in the region and preventing the emergence of any future material force that could challenge it. While a truce exists with Iran [as of May 22], economic and political pressure continues. Negotiations are also being used to secure gains under pressure, mainly related to Iran’s weapons capabilities and its future power. Likewise, despite the ceasefire reached in Gaza, the targeting, killing, and blockade of Gazans by the Israeli occupation continue. At the same time, pressure on Hamas persists through negotiations aimed at achieving its full disarmament. The same pattern appears in Lebanon. Although Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire agreement, it has largely remained nominal, much like in Gaza. The Israeli military continues targeting civilians, villages, and towns in southern Lebanon, while negotiations with the Lebanese government are used to pressure it toward the disarmament of Hezbollah. [my emphasis] (2)

The goals described in the now-defunct memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran included demands that Israel withdraw from territories in Lebanon (and implicit in Syria) that it current illegally occupies. Israel has never committed itself to that and won’t without major pressure from the US. Which the Trump regime shows no willingness or even the diplomatic ability to bring about such a result:

... the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final Deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and other provisions of this paragraph.

El-Husseini writes of Israel’s goals in the current war:

In Iran, Israel is not seeking only to destroy Iranian nuclear capabilities. It is also seeking to keep Tehran under prolonged military, economic, and political pressure, or to bring about regime change. Israel views Iran as the center of threat production. Since the Iranian Revolution, Tehran has adopted the rhetoric of “exporting the revolution” and supporting the “oppressed.” This was translated in practice through support for its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. [my emphasis]

As many commentators have noted, Iran has been Netanyahu’s White Whale.

Meanwhile, journalistic soothsayers are trying to detect what the leaders of the US and Israel have in mind in the current situation. Journalists covering the war are assuming that Axios is the current favorite outlet for the Trump regime views of the conflict, and in particular the reporting of Barak Ravid. On July 17, Ravid writes:

Among the options being considered [by the US] are bombing Iranian infrastructure facilities like power plants, conducting more attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities in order to bury Iran's enriched uranium even deeper, and bombing the Pickaxe Mountain underground site that is suspected to be a facility in the making.

Trump hasn't made a final decision yet, but he appears willing to escalate the war to cause enough damage that the Iranian regime will open the Strait of Hormuz and accept Trump's nuclear demands. (3)

Amos Harel, a military analyst for Haaretz, presents a picture that sounds suspiciously like, things aren’t looking good any way we take it:

Following several weeks of gradual escalation, there are growing signs that the war between the United States and Iran may intensify and expand. For the time being, it still appears that the two countries have no interest in drawing Israel into a renewed confrontation in the Persian Gulf. This may nevertheless happen, whether because of an inability to contain the confrontation to the Gulf region or due to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political considerations – mainly, his dire domestic situation.

The truth is, besides a decisive American victory over Iran, which is not in sight, Israel has little to gain from an expanded and prolonged war. The U.S. doesn't need it for now, and it seems that Iran is wary of involving Israel at this point, since Tehran, apparently, is not interested in a broader confrontation: Israel is considered to be an unpredictable actor. [my emphasis] (4)

That second paragraph is a bit enigmatic. Of course Israel is deeply involved in the war and will continue to be. And Iran’s leaders perceive this the current conflict as a war for national and regime survival. They would be foolish not to. And their ability to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a powerful advantage. And it’s not their only advantage.

Robert Pape has been one of the Cassandras of the current war. This is an July 16 interview with Deutsche Welle, including the unfortunate fact that the world is facing an “oil inventory cliff”: (5)

Maybe some Christian Zionists can explain to us why the escalating disaster is all part of God’s Divine Plan. But it’s hard to see how we can blame God for this very human-created disaster.

Notes:

(1) Achcar, Gilbert (2026): US: an old-new imperial doctrine. Le Monde Diplomatique (Feb 2026). <https://mondediplo.com/2026/02/05us> (Accessed: 2026-18-07).

(2) El-Husseini, Sani Faisal (2026): Israel: From neutralizing the frontline states to neutralizing the Axis of Resistance. Middle East Eye 05/22/2026. <https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260522-israel-from-neutralizing-the-frontline-states-to-neutralizing-the-axis-of-resistance/> (Accessed: 2026-19-07).

(3) Ravid, Barak (2026): Scoop: U.S. sending dozens of refueling planes to Israel as Iran escalation looms. Axios 07/17/2026. <https://www.axios.com/2026/07/17/trump-iran-israel-refueling-planes> (Accessed: 2026-19-07).

(4) Harel, Amos (2026): Even as Ground Invasion Looms, U.S. and Iran Want Wild-card Israel Out of the Fight. Haaretz 07/19/2026. Gift link: <https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2026-07-19/ty-article/.premium/israel-may-be-dragged-into-a-u-s-iran-fight/0000019f-76e7-d969-afdf-f6e781ae0000?gift=4fbe229f26434dbf8462b5e7454f4331> (Accessed: 2026-19-07).

(5) Why Trump is taking a risky bet on Iran, but could lose on all counts. DW News YouTube channel 07/16/2026. <https://youtu.be/ze9fLTI2eE0?si=ERyBdxvkpbkkq-SI> (Accessed: 2026-19-07).