The latest escalation in the Iran War

I’ve been around for several US wars. But at least from today’s perspective, it seems as if in earlier wars there was a plausible off-ramp that even Republicans could reasonably see as a plausible option.

In the current Iran War, the only option the US has to limit the growing catastrophe is to cut off all military aid to Israel until they agree to an enforceable peace treaty with Iran. And it seems completely unrealistic to expect the Republican Party to demand or even accept such a thing. And it seems at this point impossible to imagine the incompetent and seriously mentally impaired Donald Trump doing it as long as he’s President.

Another two and a half years of a Middle East policy of the kind we’ve had since Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu initiated their war of aggression against Iran on February 28 will have seriously catastrophic consequences for the entire world economy. And we’re now on the verge of having Middle East oil production capability radically reduced, with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and numerous other major oil producers looking at radical damage to their oil infrastructure.

We’re on the verge of things becoming so bad that even the chances for insider traders to reap weekly financial windfalls may be drastically curtailed. (Patrick Wintour, Guardian)

Israel launched airstrikes early on Monday targeting central and western Iran in response to missile fire from Tehran, attacks that threatened to drag the wider Middle East back into a regional war.

Iranian state TV reported the sound of explosions being heard in the cities of Isfahan, Karaj, Tabriz and Tehran. A witness in Tehran described hearing at least one large blast somewhere to the west of the capital.

Iran closed the airspace around Tehran’s Imam Khomeini international airport – the main airfield in the country – after the Israeli attack.

Multiple explosions were heard over Jerusalem later on Monday as Israel said a new wave of Iranian missiles was incoming. The Israeli military said it “identified missiles launched from Iran” and was working to intercept the threat. (Guardian)

Iran has said that any US or Israeli strikes on major Iranian oil infrastructure would be met with attacks against oil infrastructure of other US Middle East allies. They have also threatened to attack desalinization plants, which those countries depend upon for potable water. That would be a war crime on Iran’s part, but it doesn’t mean they want do it. Which could be seriously catastrophic for the countries affected. As David Michel wrote during the first month of the current war:

The economies of the Persian Gulf countries depend on oil and natural gas. Their populations depend on desalinated water. Nature endows the Arabian Peninsula with scant freshwater resources. Consequently, all of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations lining the Gulf’s southern shores critically rely on desalination plants drawing seawater from the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea. The war on Iran that began on February 28 puts these essential water systems at risk. Desalination facilities in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) suffered indirect damage from missile and drone strikes early in the conflict. Subsequently, plants in Bahrain and Iran have reportedly been intentionally attacked. Deliberate targeting of desalination infrastructure would represent a significant conflict escalation, potentially threatening vital water supplies for millions of people across the region. (1)

On the American side, this mess is the result of years of the US Republican Party indulging the politics of crackpots and bigots like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.

Reckless warmongering has left the world economy is a bad place, as Politico reports: (2)

Did the year 1989 actually happen, when it seemed practically possible to reduce preparations for wars and develop a much more peaceful world?

Simon Tisdall resorts to a sports analogy – which is at least better than talking about who “holds the cards”:

There are visionary statesmen and high-minded negotiators, pragmatic mediators and professional diplomats – and then there are meddling fools. As ceasefires implode, vast numbers of civilians die or flee, and wars Donald Trump started, fuelled or pledged to resolve rage unchecked, there’s no doubt which category he belongs to. In baseball parlance, in Ukraine, Iran-Lebanon and Israel-Palestine, Trump is “0 for 3”. He boasted he alone could cut deals and bring peace. He’s delivered neither. In striking out, he mostly makes matters worse. [my emphasis] (3)

If anyone is interested in seeing Trump’s Meet the Press meltdown from Sunday, it’s available on YouTube. Weirdly, it was held in a location where rain on the roof is very loud during the interview.

Notes:

(1) Michel, David (2026): Could Iran Disrupt the Gulf Countries’ Desalinated Water Supplies? CSIS 03/19/2026. <https://www.csis.org/analysis/could-iran-disrupt-gulf-countries-desalinated-water-supplies> (Accessed: 2026-08-06).

(2) Politico EU 06/05/2026. <https://www.politico.eu/article/global-shipping-industry-prepares-for-permanent-disruption/> (Accessed: 2026-08-06).

Tisdall, Simon (2026): Trump’s failure to maintain ceasefires is part of the new world disorder – and ordinary people pay the price. Guardian 06/07/2026. <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/07/donald-trump-ceasefire-failure-ukraine-iran-gaza-lebanon-gaza> (Accessed: 2026-08-06).