More peace news from the Peace President

The Peace President’s peace process seems to be a bit rocky at the moment:

The US has launched strikes on southern Iran in a test of the seven-week long ceasefire, as both sides played down hopes for an imminent peace deal even as negotiators from Tehran began new talks in Qatar.

US forces targeted missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines, US central command (Centcom) said on Tuesday, but stressed that the strikes did not indicate the ceasefire with Iran was over. (1)

Kind of like a ceasefire without the ceasing part?

Then in Lebanon, which Iran has been treating as part of the war that has to be a part of the peace deal: “Israel on Monday escalated its strikes on Lebanon, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying that he had ordered the military to ‘crush’ Hezbollah. Iran has been adamant that any agreement to end the war include Lebanon.“ (2)

Trump also insisted that a final settlement has to include a list of countries that have to approved the Abraham Accords formally recognizing Israel: Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye. He’s also demanding that Bahrain and the UAE join; both are already members.

The stakes in all this fumbling, remarkably incompetent Trump regime diplomacy are high, obviously:

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as of May 13, the cumulative shortfall in global oil deliveries from the Gulf was roughly one billion barrels. This shortfall has been absorbed by reduced oil demand (a consequence of higher prices); increased production outside the Gulf; and by a drop in global oil inventories of roughly 250 million barrels, as these were released to hold down prices in the absence of new production from the Gulf coming to the market. However IEA head Fatih Birol warned last week that inventories were dropping at an unsustainable pace, particularly with summer driving season approaching in the Northern Hemisphere. (3)

Will we really have to wait until January of 2029 before there’s a President in the Oval Office who can actually do diplomacy and not just endless grifting?

Notes:

(1) Yerushalmy, Jonathn (2026): US strikes Iran missile sites and mine laying vessels as Trump’s promised peace deal remains elusive. Guardian 05/25/2026. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/26/us-strikes-iran-missile-sites-vessels-trump-peace-deal-elusive> (Accessed: 2026-25-05).

(2) Matthews, Sean (2026): Trump calls for 'mandatory' adherence to Abraham Accords in Iran ceasefire talks. Middle East Eye 05/25/2026. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/trump-calls-mandatory-adherence-abraham-accords-iran-ceasefire-talks> (Accessed: 2026-25-05).

(3) Sankaran, Karthik (2026): More Iran war? There goes the neighborhood, and global economy. Responsible Statecraft 05/26/2026. <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/economy-iran-war/> (Accessed: 2026-25-05).