More bombing of Iran coming tonight? Or not? Or maybe?

Rumors and leaks about the US-Israeli War on Iran are hard to evaluate because anything that depends on the current President of the United States to take an action he's threatening to take may change ten times before tomorrow morning.

Here's Trita Paris giving his reality-based take on the rumors of renewed bombing at the moment. (1)

Literally while I was typing the first lines of this post, the Orange Anomaly is now saying he's pausing a new attack: "Trump says he's pausing plan to attack Iran." That from Axios, which seems to be getting preferential treatment as the moment to for a lot of Trump regime leaks. 

President Trump said Monday that he'd planned to strike Iran "tomorrow" but was holding off to give negotiations another chance. He claimed he made the decision at the request of several Arab leaders. ...

I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the President of the United Arab Emirates to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow," Trump wrote on Truth Social. (2)

In an article also before the change of plans just noted above, Tria Parsi also observes:

The Middle East is once again teetering on the brink as Trump appears poised to reignite war with Iran. Press reports indicate he will convene military advisers on Tuesday, though my understanding is that both the meeting and the decision are likely to come sooner. Over the past several hours, Trump has flooded Truth Social with a barrage of incendiary threats. While some of this may be theatrical brinkmanship designed to force Tehran into submission, sources in the Iranian capital tell me they expect the United States to resume hostilities within the next 48 hours.

We should first recognize that restarting the war amounts to an admission that Trump’s previous escalatory gambit — the blockade of the blockade — has failed. That, in turn, was itself an admission that the war had failed. Which was an admission that the threats of war in January had failed. As I have argued before on my Substack, this relentless search for an escalatory silver bullet capable of bringing Iran to its knees is not unique to Trump; it has become a defining pathology of American Iran policy for decades. (3)

Notes:

(1) Trita Parsi: Iran War Marks the End of American Primacy. Glenn Diesen YouTube channel 05/18/2026. <https://youtu.be/7QUx7GjIOBo?si=Qtu2ps0GLufCmNgG> (Accessed: 2026-18-05),

(2) Ravid, Barak (2026): Trump says he's pausing plan to attack Iran. Axios 05/1/2026. <https://www.axios.com/2026/05/18/trump-iran-attack-suspend-nuclear-talks> (Accessed: 2026-18-05).

(3) Trump appears poised to restart the Iran war. Responsible Statecraft 05/18/2026. <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-trump-restart-war/> (Accessed: 2026-18-05).