Iran War Monthly Summaries: Month 2 (April 2026)

The current Iran War began on Febuary 28, two months ago, with the illegal military attack by the US and Israel on Iran.

Trump, 04/16/2026:

US President Donald Trump said that the war in Iran is going "swimmingly" and that it "should be ending pretty soon."

“It should be ending pretty soon,” Trump said at an event in Las Vegas. "It was perfect. It’s perfect. It was the power we have... We had the most powerful military anywhere in the world." (1)

Iran has suffered considerable damage and death. But their strategic position in the world has been enhanced. Alastair Crooke made the following assessment as the Iran War moved into its second month, emphasizing that Iran has formidable ground and air forces (missiles) and warning that Iraqi forces of some kind could become active on Iran’s side. He even speculates that Iraq might decide to annex Kuwait! (2)

April was the month that the President of the United States openly, explicitly threatened Iran with genocide on his Truth Social app:

Making that threat is a war crime in itself.

Richard Haass 04/24/2026 isn’t impressed by the war Trump and “War” Secretary Pete Kegsbreath initiated alongside Israel:

This was a war that did not need to happen – a war of choice – and, on balance, it has left the United States worse off. Yes, Iran is weaker if measured strictly in terms of conventional military capability, but that’s about the only accomplishment the administration can boast. … As for the war itself, virtually every other metric shows the United States, the region, and the world to be worse off. [my emphasis] (3)

A big part of the story is the disastrous excuse for actual diplomacy that the Trump regime has been practicing. Featuring goofy pronouncements from the Orange Anomaly like this one, Trump 03/26/2026: “[Iran] did something yesterday that was amazing, actually. They gave us a present and the present arrived today. It was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money. I’m not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize, and they gave it to us.” (4)

Did anyone ever figure out what the Very Big Present was? Apparently it was that Iran agreed to let ten oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Things quickly reverted to NACHO state (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens),

And, Trump on Iran 04/02/2026: “We could just take their oil. But, you know, I’m not sure that the people in our country have the patience to do that, which is unfortunate. You know, they want to see it end. If we stayed there, I, you know, I’d prefer just to take the oil. We could do it so easily.” (5)

The International Crisis Group, on the other hand, tells us something substantive about the war: “Iran’s conduct is best understood as an attempt to convert battlefield resilience into political leverage. Tehran regards the ceasefire not as an endpoint but as an opportunity to shape the terms of the conflict’s next phase.” (6)

The Houthis entered the war at the end of March.

Trump has been getting some good advice. But of course he’s ignoring it, especially when it’s about international law which he neither understands nor accepts:

Tom Fletcher, the UN’s under secretary general for humanitarian affairs, has accused the US president of war crimes by bombing bridges and threatening further attacks on Iran’s infrastructure, and deplored the “reckless” nature of the conflict and its effect on ordinary people in Iran.

“War is not a game show; peace-making is not a real estate deal; the world is not a casino”, said Mr Fletcher, who worked for three former British prime ministers: Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and David Cameron.

“You don’t hit civilian infrastructure. That includes hospitals. You don’t hit schools, energy sources, bridges. That is a war crime. That is absolutely clear in international law.

“Somewhere along the way, we have thrown all that aside. We have chosen impunity, indifference and game-show gambling over solidarity and humanity”, Mr Fletcher told the BBC. my emphasis] (7)

It was an ugly month in Lebanon, too, which is part of the war.

Since 2 March, Israel has carried out a large-scale air campaign in Lebanon, killing more than 2,290 people, wounding over 7,500, and displacing 1.2 million people, around 20 percent of the population.

At the same time, the Israeli military has launched a ground invasion, announcing plans to occupy large swathes of southern Lebanon and stating that displaced residents would not be allowed to return to their homes.

Israeli forces have spent weeks demolishing entire villages, using bulldozers and rigging homes with explosives before flattening them in large-scale remote-controlled detonations.

Within hours of the ceasefire coming into effect, Israeli troops carried out demolitions, artillery shelling, and land-clearing operations in several border areas, in violation of the truce. [my emphasis] (8)

Gideon Levy takes a thoughtful look at Israel’s situation in the war as he reflected on the 78th anniversary of Israel’s independence:

At the beginning of this state was the Nakba [ethnic cleansing operations against the Palestinians]: our day of celebration was the day of another people's historic catastrophe, a people who were here before us. Everything since has been bound up with what came before. What began in 1948 has not ended, not even in 2026.

From the Nakba to today, the basic principles by which Zionism operates have not changed, nor has the policy of successive governments of the Jewish state. The Nakba has never ended; it has merely altered in form. How disheartening it is to think that the values that led to the Nakba 78 years ago are still driving the State of Israel in 2026 - the same principles, the same objectives, the same methods.

Now a regional power and the closest ally of the most powerful superpower in the world, nothing has changed in Israel's overall outlook since it was a day-old state. It still believes it can live by the sword - and only by the sword - and that it has no alternative but a life sustained by the sword. [my emphasis] (9)

Michael Tomasky gave this summary of the state of affairs on April 24:

Trump made this problem. Entirely and solely. By pulling out of the JCPOA [Iranian nuclear agreement] in 2018, he ensured that Iran would start breaking the terms of the deal. He’s the one who made Iran strong. Then, eight years later, he comes back to us and says, Bad Iran! They broke the terms of the deal! They’re too strong. We must invade them.

But it’s actually even worse than that. Because we didn’t invade Iran because they broke the terms of the deal. We invaded Iran because Trump, having conquered (in his mind) America, needed to conquer farther reaches. Venezuela got him thinking, Hey, this war stuff is kinda fun. So he figured he’d be the guy who toppled the hated regime. A few bombs. Easy-peasy. [emphasis in original] (10)

And on the wartime diplomacy, Emily Horne offers this characterization:

It’s a real tell to negotiators in Iran that the people who are showing up at the table [negotiating for the US] really have no idea what they’re doing - that this is total amateur hour. …

JD Vance doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing. Steve Witkoff, the president’s golf buddy, is no diplomat. The president’s son-in-law can’t negotiate anything except a deal with crypto leaders in the Middle East that’s going to enrich himself. These people don’t know what they’re doing and they barely even tried at the Islamabad talks. They were on the ground for less than 24 hours, where they washed their hands of the whole thing and said that it was a failure. [my emphasis] (11)

Just Security has a helpful collection of articles on international law aspects of the current Iran War: https://www.justsecurity.org/114556/collection-israel-iran-conflict/

And the Institute for the Study of War is posting daily updates: https://understandingwar.org/analysis/middle-east/

Notes: (1) Trump says war on Iran 'should be ending pretty soon'. Middle East Eye 04/17/2026. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/trump-says-war-iran-should-be-ending-pretty-soon> (Accessed: 2026-17-04).

(2) IRAN IS EMERGING as a DOMINANT POWER – Alastair Crooke. Daniel Davis-Deep Dive YouTube channel 03/29/2026. <https://youtu.be/XviEhjGBg-A?si=gRIusUl-qP4ux14E> (Accessed: 2026-29-03).

(3) Haass, Richard 04/24/2026): The US, Iran, & The Art of The Deal. Home & Away 04/26/2026. <https://richardhaass.substack.com/p/the-us-iran-and-the-art-of-the-deal> (Accessed: 2026-24-04).

(4) Greenhouse, Steven (2026): Trump’s strategy to get his way: declare one fake ‘emergency’ after another. Guardian 03/27/2026. <https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/27/trump-national-emergency-elections> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(5) Breaking News. The New Republic 04/02/2026. <https://newrepublic.com/post/208535/white-house-accidentally-easter-lunch-trump-speech> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(6) International Crisis Group 04/15/2026 Iran Crisis Monitor Report #1. <https://www.crisisgroup.org/bnt/middle-east-north-africa/iran-israelpalestine-united-states/iran-crisis-monitor-1> (Accessed: 2026-26-04).

(7) Cooke, Millie (2026): UN chief tells Trump ‘war is not a game show’ after US bombs civilian targets in Iran. The Independent 04/03/2026. <https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/iran-war-trump-un-us-civilians-b2951408.html> (Accessed: 2026-03-04).

(8) A history of Israel’s invasions of Lebanon. Middle East Eye 04/21/2026. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/explainers/history-israel-invasions-lebanon> (Accessed: 2026-24-04).

(9) Levy, Gideon (2026): Israel at 78 still believes it can live by the sword alone. A reckoning is due. Middle East Eye 04/23/2026. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/israel-78-believes-it-can-live-by-sword-alone-reckoning-due> (Accessed: 2026-24-04).

(10) Tomasky, Michael (2026): Let’s Hope America’s Dumbest War Doesn’t Become Its Most Tragic. TNR Politics 04/24/2026, <https://newrepublic.com/post/209477/trump-iran-jcpoa-dumbest-war-tragic> (Accessed: 2026-24-04).

(11) Transcript: Leavitt Goes Full Cult on Fox as War Leaks Humiliate Trump. The New Republic 04/22/2026. <https://newrepublic.com/article/209356/transcript-leavitt-goes-full-cult-fox-war-leaks-humiliate-trump> (Accessed: 2026-24-04).