Iran War: It isn’t over and the US seems to have no actual diplomatic strategy

The Iran War isn’t over. Although the US hasn’t been actually declaring wars since the declarations of war on Japan and Hitler Germany.

At the moment, there has been a ceasefire since Friday between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah. Netanyahu’s government seems to be unhappy about the US having insisted on that ceasefire – which Netanyahu can use to preserve his hardliner image, and which fits with Trump’s Peace President posturing. That ceasefire may be over by the time I finish drafting this post, the way things are going. Netanyahu’s war against Iran and Lebanon is broadly popular in Israel.

But Netanyahu seems determined to continue its war in Lebanon, which is part of the war as far as Iran is concerned and which was part of the current ceasefire agreement. How well the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are doing in the fight in Lebanon against Hezbollah is another question. The IDF has based its training and war planning around short wars. Since October 7, 2023, they’ve been fighting a forever war to keep Benjamin Netanyahu in power and out of jail. He faces corruption charges in Israel for which the legal process has been suspended for as long as he is Prime Minister.

Former Senator and Secretary of State John Kerry had some blunt criticisms recently of Trump’s and Netanyahu’s Iran War in this interview with Boston Public Radio. (1) Kerry outlines what people need to know about the current wobbly and short ceasefire with Iran in this interview:

Former Senator and former Secretary of State John Kerry had some blunt criticisms recently of Trump’s and Netanyahu’s Iran War in this interview with Boston Public Radio. (1) Kerry outlines what people need to know about the current wobbly and short ceasefire with Iran in this interview:

Kerry talks a bit in this interview about the need for a transition to clean energy and mentions without prompting that he is part of an investment group focusing on green energy.

This is also an insightful interview with Anne Applebaum, who notes emphatically (and correctly!) that Trump obviously has no understand of geopolitics – how the international state system functions – and also no understanding of strategy (in diplomacy or anything else). Hearing Kerry talking about his negotiations with Iran as Secretary of State highlights how little competence the Trump regime has in diplomacy. (2)

Kerry comments in his interview that peace is a state of engagement between countries and peoples. That’s part of this whole “geopolitics” claim about which Trump, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner are obviously clueless.

Haaretz reported on the negotiations with Iran, which at the time of the article were scheduled to formally begin on the afternoon of April 11 (according to Iran):

Iran's key demands include a U.S. commitment not to attack Iran and a cease-fire across all fronts, including Lebanon; continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz; recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium; the lifting of U.S. and international sanctions; payment of compensation to Iran; and the withdrawal of American forces from the region.

The U.S. demands include a ban on uranium enrichment on Iranian soil; removal of enriched uranium buried under the rubble of nuclear facilities bombed in June; curbs on Iran's ballistic missile program; and a commitment by Iran to halt support for regional proxy groups, including Hezbollah and the Houthis. (3)

Netanyahu has never been closer to his grand dream of wrecking Iran and turning it into a failed state. Iran is sometimes characterized as being the White Whale to Netanyahu’s Captain Ahab. He can be expected to try hard to sabotage any possibility of a peace agreement at this point.

Dahlia Scheindlin, whose analysis has been highly critical of Netanyahu’s authoritarian politics, warns:

Israelis should know the failings of indecisive diplomacy better than anyone. This was precisely the nature of the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, where the failure was not in giving up territory but in refusing to declare the final status aim of Palestinian statehood next to Israel, once and for all. Phased conditions set up for failure characterized the hostage release-cease-fire deals with Hamas in Gaza – the war that is far from over. The Middle East analyst and recently released hostage Elizabeth Tsurkov argued that Israeli ambiguity is actually a symptom of a complete lack of strategy.

The Trump administration's 15-point plan might represent a comprehensive agreement; but it also might be too far-reaching for Iran to agree to, no matter how battered. If not, one can only hope – or recommend – that after buying into Netanyahu's ideology of waging war on Iran, Trump and his team do not adopt the pointless diplomatic doctrine of never deciding how to end those wars. [my emphasis] (4)

This is a mess, a confusing mess. It’s definitely not over.

Notes:

(1) John Kerry outlines what to know about the 2-week cease fire with Iran.  GBH News News YouTube channel 04/11/2026. <https://youtu.be/Jv7Jt1TJwek?si=Te21_msTkANhIVa3> (Accessed: 2026-11-04).

(2) Trump Wants to Invent a Fake Reality (w/ Anne Applebaum). The Bulwark YouTube channel 04/11/2026. <https://youtu.be/fkW_UU_BBaY?si=lZNdY_N-homWs6aw> (Accessed: 2026-11-04). The explicit discussion about geopolitics starts after 49:00 in the video.)

(3) Rozovsky, Liza & Reuters (2026): U.S., Iran Teams in Pakistan for Peace Talks Amid Doubts Over Lebanon, Sanctions. Haaretz 04/11/2026. Full link: <https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/2026-04-11/ty-article/u-s-iran-teams-in-pakistan-for-peace-talks-amid-doubts-over-lebanon-sanctions/0000019d-7b3e-d68a-a39d-7b3f13f20000?gift=389c963817a74aa6a512384dcc326c68> (Accessed: 2026-11-04).

(4) Scheindlin, Dahlia (2026): How Not to End a War, According to Trump and Netanyahu. Haaretz 04/09/2026. <https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/2026-04-09/ty-article/.premium/how-not-to-end-a-war-according-to-trump-and-netanyahu/0000019d-72f1-dc9d-a5bd-7ffbb2950000?gift=d14b36d2fe0c47139c9e0093830121e2> (Accessed: 2026-11-04).