If you were asked what would be a really bad foreign policy move for the US right now, an invasion of Venezuela would be a good answer

From the stereotypically establishment Foreign Affairs:

These [recent military] moves [by the US against Venezuela] reflect a recent, broad shift in the administration’s policy toward Venezuela. As reported by several major news outlets, for months after Trump’s January inauguration, internal debate pitted long-time advocates of regime change—led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio—against officials who favored a negotiated settlement with Caracas, including the president’s special envoy Richard Grenell. During the first half of 2025, the negotiators held the upper hand: Grenell met with Maduro and struck deals to open Venezuela’s expansive oil and mineral sectors to U.S. firms in exchange for economic reforms and the release of political prisoners. But by mid-July, Rubio reclaimed the initiative by reframing the stakes. Ousting Maduro, he argued, was no longer just about promoting democracy—it was a matter of homeland security. He recast the Venezuelan leader as a narcoterrorist kingpin fueling the United States’ drug crisis and illegal immigration, tying him to the Tren de Aragua gang and claiming that Venezuela was now “governed by a narco-trafficking organization that has empowered itself as a nation state.”

That narrative appears to have persuaded Trump. [my emphasis] (1)

As the authors emphasize at the end, “some might still argue that regime change is justified by the United States’ strategic interest in Venezuelan oil reserves, which are the world’s largest. But negotiations over U.S. access to those resources were working.”

Last week, Alejandro Velasco appeared on Democracy Now! to discuss Venezuela policy: (2)

This is one case where the Peace President Trump is following the neocon game plan.

Deutsche Welle recently did this backgrounder on the now-active armed conflict by the US against Venezuela: (3)

Notes:

(1) Downes, Alexander & O’Rourke (2025): The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela: If Past Is Prologue, a U.S. Attempt to Overthrow Maduro Would Not End Well Foreign Affairs Online 10/31/2025. <https://www.foreignaffairs.com/venezuela/regime-change-temptation-maduro-trump-venezuela> (Accessed: 2025-01-11).

(2) "Rubio's Ideological Project": What's Driving Trump's Campaign Against Venezuela? Democracy Now! YouTube channel 10/27/2025. <https://youtu.be/kCtSpeiSzZA?si=09IFzsRlP-IUimpz> (Accessed: 2025-02-11).

(3) What does Trump really want to achieve with his military actions in the Caribbean? DW News YouTube channel 10/30/2025. <https://youtu.be/HMhu9gSWrkg?si=3K8T1KWsOUz-_4sx> (Accessed: 2025-02-11).