Has the Peace President approved war with Iran?

I hope it doesn’t happen. But, it’s looking depressingly like Peace President Trump, having completely bungled diplomacy on the Russia-Ukraine War (1), and on Israel’s war on Palestinian civilians in Gaza (2), and on nuclear nonproliferation with Iran, has greenlighted a massive Israeli attack on Iran. Which could easily escalate to a war with the US directly attacking Iran.

Even though he’s talking out of both sides of his mouth, not a new practice for him. Haaretz reports:

Israel is "fully ready" to carry out a military strike against Iran, U.S. officials have confirmed, as Tehran prepares for a large-scale retaliatory attack that could involve hundreds of ballistic missiles targeting Israeli territory. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that an Israeli strike "could very well happen" and that it might derail efforts to reach a new nuclear agreement with Iran.

Trump said he would "love to avoid a conflict" with Iran, but added that Tehran must offer greater concessions in ongoing negotiations over its nuclear program. "It's very simple, not complicated. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," he said during a bill signing ceremony at the White House. "Iran has to give us some things they're not willing to give us right now."

Asked whether he was trying to prevent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from launching a military operation, Trump said the U.S. has had "very good discussions" with Iran and made clear he opposed an Israeli strike for now. "It would blow it. It might help it, actually. But it could also blow it," he said of the potential impact on diplomacy. (3)

Trump 2.0 adopted the Israeli position that Iran should not be allowed to have any kind of uranium enrichment at all, even the kind that was allowed under the previous JCPOA agreement that the Obama Administration negotiated, which Trump 1.0 discontinued and the Biden Administration never got around to re-entering.

U.S. President Donald Trump had previously warned that Israel or America could launch airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities if negotiators failed to reach a deal on Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program. A sixth round of Iran-U.S. talks is scheduled to begin Sunday in Oman, and as tensions simmer some American government staffers deemed nonessential have begun leaving the Gulf region. (4)

The US has announced withdraws of US personnel from the Middle East, also an indication that war could be imminent. As Kelley Beaucar Vlaho explains:

Trump repeated that Iran would be stopped from developing a nuclear weapon either way. “But it would be nicer to do it without warfare, without people dying."

Now we know Israel would prefer that the U.S and/or Israel destroy Iran's nuclear program militarily. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government have expressed growing frustration with Trump's diplomatic path (the negotiations are headed into their sixth round of talks). Iran lashed out earlier this week when it insisted it knows where Israel's secret nuclear weapons arsenal is and threatened to strike it if they were attacked, too.

Interestingly, CNN reported Wednesday that in a phone call with Netanyahu on Monday, Trump warned against a military intervention. This might indicate Israel is more committed to action than has even been reported. (5)

We’ll soon see. But a war with Iran – for Israel or the US – would be a seriously bad thing:

White House envoy Steve Witkoff privately warned top Senate Republicans last week that Iran could unleash a mass casualty response if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities, according to a U.S. official and a source with direct knowledge.

Why it matters: With Israel preparing to strike Iran quickly if Witkoff's diplomacy fails this weekend, President Trump's envoy sounded the alarm about what would come next. Iran's retaliation could overwhelm Israel's defenses and cause heavy damage, he said. Axios report:

• Iran has also vowed to strike U.S. targets in the region in the event of an attack on its nuclear sites. The U.S. is in the process of withdrawing diplomats and military families who could be in harm's way.

• Trump told reporters Thursday that he doesn't want to say an Israeli strike "is imminent" but that "it might very well happen." Trump stressed he wants to avoid conflict but said that will require concessions that Iran has been unwilling to make. (6)

Notes:

(1) Ronzhewimer, Paul & Stasiuk, Yurii (2025): Zelenskyy: ‘Russia is simply lying to Trump’. Politico 06/12/20225. <https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-war-in-ukraine-russia-vladimir-putin-donald-trump-peace-talks/> (Accessed: 2025-12-06).

(2) Tamimi, Azzam (2025): How Trump's team squandered a chance to end the Gaza war. Middle East Eye 06/10/2025. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/us-trump-team-squandered-chance-end-gaza-war-how> (Accessed: 2025-12-06).

(3) Samuels, Ben, et. al. (2025): Israel 'Fully Ready' to Attack Iran in Coming Days, U.S. Officials Reportedly Say. Haaretz 06/12/2025. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-06-12/ty-article/israel-ready-to-attack-iran-u-s-officials-say-as-iran-prepares-retaliatory-strikes/00000197-62b0-d2f0-afff-e7b649700000> (Accessed: 2025-12-06).

(4) Liechtenstein, Stephanie (2025): Iran announces a new nuclear enrichment site after UN watchdog censure. AP News 06/12/2025. <https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-sanctions-728b811da537abe942682e13a82ff8bd> (Accessed: 2025-12-06).

(5) Vlahos, Kelley Beaucar (2025): Update: Warnings, evacuations come as Israel preps for attack. Responsible Statecraft 06/11/2025. <https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-israel-evacuations/> (Accessed: 2025-12-06).

(6) Ravid, Barak (2025): U.S. fears Iran's response to Israeli strike would be mass casualty event. Axios 06/12/2025. <https://www.axios.com/2025/06/12/israel-strike-iran-response-witkoff> (Accessed: 2025-12-06).