John Mearsheimer debates a Putin advisor on Russia-Ukraine

I can’t kick the habit of listening to John Mearsheimer on the Russia-Ukraine War. In this new one, he discusses the issue with a Putin adviser, Sergey Karaganov. It should go without saying that we should assume that Karaganov is reflecting the official Russian perspective. But it’s interesting to hear the nuances he uses in presenting the official position of the moment. And I’m also fascinated by how Mearsheimer approaches the discussion, knowing as he does details of the official Russian positions as well as describing his own perspective. (1)

As always with Mearsheimer, if listening to him doesn’t irritate you in some way, you’re probably not paying attention. But his perspective is really not as depressing as it may sound if you’re not used to hearing him talk at some length in this way.

I only wish we could hope that Donald Trump’s ham-and-cheese-sandwich buddy and Special Envoy to Everywhere Steve Witkoff is talking to Mearsheimer and other actual experts. But it takes consider imagination even to picture it.

Instead, the American negotiating team in general sounds like contestants on Amateur Hour: (2)

Vlad Mykhnenko of the University of Oxford refers to the rebalancing theory that Mearsheimer mentions of drawing the Russians into more of alignment with the US against the Chinese. The idea itself seems fairly obvious. But the comedy actors on Saturday Night Live would have a better chance of negotiating such a thing that Steve Witkoff and his current team do. Mykhnenko (beginning at 17:50 in the video):

We've learned from a couple of international relation theories which are connected to [the] MAGA movement, the Make America Great movement, is that they're trying to pretend they’re orchestrating some three-dimensional geopolitical chess of peeling Russia away from the People's Republic of China, and in that way weakening their Pacific enemy and strengthening the ties with Russia some way …

So, the official line is, this [is] kind of a clever reverse Nixon maneuver, when Richard Nixon allegedly peeled away the Chinese from the Russians back in 1972. And that they believe that was the death knell of the Communist regime [in the Soviet Union]. They think they if they orchestrate the reverse maneuver, that that will get the same results.

I do think that the theory is delusional and is based on misreading of the history. But also I believe that even [if] the theory is not delusional it will not be possible to create such a maneuver. Because the Russian economy is entirely dependent on its largest neighbor and the largest economy that [has] effectively been propping up Russia for the last three years.

In light of that, do you think there could be some play here - again, potentially giving a lot of credit to Trump - of attempting to turn one of China's allies, Russia, against them, in bringing them into the into the fold of the West?

What we're learning from the Signalgate - this [is] the scandal of American high officials using mobile phones to plan bombing campaigns overseas - is that the level of competence isn't that great. And the level of understanding of the situation on the ground isn't that great.

And, hence, I'm afraid Donald Trump isn't Richard Nixon. And Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz isn't exactly Henry Kissinger. [If that were so,] then I'm going to write massive books of history of diplomacy, right? So as much as we can be critical of Nixon’s and Kissinger’s mental acumen, it was, I'm afraid, much higher than the current Administration possesses.

This is something to always keep in mind when John Mearsheimer talks about a strategy of power-balancing among the US, China, and Russia, he’s speaking from a “realist” model of international relations, which assumes power-balancing factors exert great objective pressure on national decisionmakers. But he’s also aware that actual foreign policy is made by human beings with various levels of competence, integrity, morality, and good sense. He regularly cites the US relationship with Israel as one in which the US for decades has supported Israel despite what the demands of normal international power politics would demonstrate.

And actual competence in diplomacy does matter.

Notes:

(1) 'Ukraine Will Be Eliminated' John Mearsheimer and Putin Advisor Discuss US-Russia Relations. Al Arabiya English 04/01/2025. <https://youtu.be/I4n7JCmQfbc?si=OXWLPzArO42P42e3> (Accessed: 2025-01-04).

(2) Black Sea Ceasefire: Team Trump has no idea what it’s doing | Prof Vlad Mykhnenko. Times Radio YouTube channel 03/27/2025. <https://youtu.be/x_ft7ouZIs0?si=rUx-ng7pME9G5pK4> (Accessed: 2025-02-04).