Still waiting for the next shoe/drone/missile to drop in the Middle East

The US and the Middle East are still dangerously at the mercy of rouge Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who apparently sees maximum incentive in expanding the war in the Middle East to pull the US directly into a war with Iran. That goal has been a priority for Netanyahu for decades.

Major factors in in this toxic situation include:

• Netanyahu faces a serious corruption trial facing him once he is no longer Prime Minister.
• He is almost certainly calculating that keeping the war going as long as possible is the best way to stay in office. expands. “In contrast to Iran and Hezbollah, Israel has not only the potential but an interest in expanding the ongoing war.” (1)
• Netanyahu very much prefers Donald Trump to Kamala Harris as US President in 2025. His appearance before Congress last month was essentially a campaign speech for the convicted felon Trump.
• Any major expansion of the war will create even more dissatisfaction in the Democratic Party with Biden’s policy.
• The Biden Administration claims it’s actively trying to avoid a further major escalation. But as long as Joe Biden himself refuses to impose any reductions in military supplies or refuses to Israel in an even wider war, Netanyahu is likely to take that as open permission to expand the war.

This does not sound good. On Israel’s high-profile assassination in Teheran of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political bureau chief and the lead Hamas figure in the hostage negotiations:

Through Haniyeh’s assassination in Iran’s capital, Israel appears to have sought to drag the Islamic Republic into a regional war — one that Iran hoped to avoid — on the first day in office of the new, moderate president. The expectation is that Iran will have to respond, and more forcefully than its previous choreographed attack on Israel in April.

This continues a long and seemingly counterintuitive tradition of Israel preferring conservative, fervently anti-Israel presidents in Iran over reformists, whom it sees as detrimental to its strategic interests. After all, part of Israel’s support among American and European governments derives from the idea that it is a Western democratic outpost in a “dangerous neighborhood,” which can defeat bad actors in the Middle East before they reach Europe and the West. …

Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran was intended to urge Iran to respond, and perhaps escalate hostilities, thus finally bringing about the full-blown regional war that Israel craves. ...

[R]ight now, Israel remains eager to pull Iran into a direct confrontation — with devastating consequences for civilians across the Middle East. [my emphasis] (2)

Nor does this: (3)

And … are you kidding me?

The U.S. approved the sale of a landmark $20 billion weapons package to Israel, including the hotly contested and long anticipated sale of F-15 fighter jets for over $18 billion.

According to the Pentagon, the U.S. also approved the sale of modified medium tactical vehicles, high-explosive mortar cartridges, 120mm tank cartridges and medium-range air-to-air missiles.

The announcement marks among the most significant arms sales to Israel in American history, coming months after Congress finally managed to pass the Biden administration's $14 billion in emergency military assistance to Israel. [my emphasis] (4)

From Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant: (5)

Did he say seven fronts? Yes, I believe he did.

Apparently those would be, in alphabetical order: Gaza, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, West Bank, Yemen.

I don’t know if this is the good news or the bad news, but Gallant is considered more moderate than Netanyahu. He considers Gallant of “adopting the anti-Israel narrative” and of being a wimp. (6)

Again, Netanyahu’s top priorities:

1. Involving the US in a direct war with Iran.
2. Keeping the war going as long as possible.
3. Seeing Donald Trump elected President again. Or, alternatively, installed by Trumpista methods.

But the US and its allies are urging Iran to go easy on the whole retaliation thing:

Iran has rejected western calls not to retaliate against Israel for the killing in Tehran of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, late last month. ...

“Such demands lack political logic, are entirely contrary to the principles and rules of international law, and represent an excessive request,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanani, said. ...

The White House warned that a “significant set of attacks” by Iran and its allies was possible as soon as this week, and has sent fighter jets, anti-missile warships and a guided missile submarine to the region in support of Israel.

Analysts say Iran is almost certain to respond to the Israeli strikes but will seek to avoid starting an all-out war. (7)

Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak also has concerns, as he explains:

Under cover of the war, a governmental and constitutional putsch is now taking place in Israel without a shot being fired. If this putsch isn't stopped, it will turn Israel into a de facto dictatorship within weeks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government are assassinating democracy. ...

The only way to prevent a dictatorship at such a late stage is by shutting down the country through large-scale, nonviolent civil disobedience, 24/7, until this government falls. But ordinary people aren't democracy's first line of defense. That would be the leaders, gatekeepers and elected officials. (8)

Notes:

(1) Elamin, Nasser (2024): Israel’s Second War. Jacobin 08/12/2024. <https://jacobin.com/2024/08/israel-second-war-hezbollah-iran> (Accessed: 2024-13-08).

(2) Threatened by a moderate Iranian president, Israel is pulling him into a fight. +972 Magazine 08/13/2024. <https://www.972mag.com/pezeshkian-israel-iran-haniyeh-war/> (Accessed: 2024-13-08).

(3) Fayyad, Huthifa (2024): Israel's Ben Gvir says Jewish prayer permitted at Al-Aqsa Mosque during large raid. Middle East Eye 08/13/2024. <https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/ben-gvir-says-jewish-prayer-permitted-al-aqsa-mosque-during-large-raid> (Accessed: 2024-13-08).

(4) Samuels, Ben (2024): U.S. Greenlights Landmark $20b Arms Package to Israel, Including $18b F15 Fighter Jets Sale. Haaretz 08/13/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-08-13/ty-article/.premium/u-s-oks-landmark-20b-arms-package-to-israel-including-18b-f15-fighter-jets-sale/00000191-4d37-d699-af95-4ff7a4e80000> (Accessed: 2024-13-08).

(5) X/Twitter 08/13/2024. <https://x.com/yoavgallant/status/1823452687851250097> (Accessed: 2024-13-08).

(6) Eichner, Itamar (2024): PM says Gallant adopts anti-Israel narrative. Ynet News 08/12/2024. <https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1ylf4iqc> (Accessed: 2024-14-08).

(7) Burke, Jason (2024): Iran rejects western plea not to launch retaliatory attack against Israel. The Guardian 08/13/2024. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/13/iran-rejects-western-plea-not-to-launch-retaliatory-attack-against-israel> (Accessed: 2024-14-08).

(8) Shut Down the Country: How Israelis and Their Leaders Can Avert Netanyahu's Dictatorship. Haaretz 08/14/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-08-14/ty-article-opinion/.premium/shut-down-the-country-how-israelis-and-their-leaders-can-avert-netanyahus-dictatorship/00000191-4d56-d94f-adf1-dd7e64d10000> (Accessed: 2024-14-08).