How much worse will Netanyahu’s ever-expanding war get?

Just after the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 set off the current Middle East war, for which “Gaza war” no longer seems adequate to a war taking on such a regional dimension, I quoted the opening line of Steve Earle’s song “Jerusalem”: I woke up this morning and none of the news was good.

I still get that feeling often when I check the news in the morning.

The U.S. Defense Department will move a fighter jet squadron to the Middle East and maintain an aircraft carrier in the region, the Pentagon said Friday, as President Joe Biden made good on his promise to beef up the American military presence to help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its proxies and safeguard U.S. troops.

In a statement, the department said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also ordered additional ballistic missile defense-capable cruisers and destroyers to the European and Middle East regions and is taking steps to send more land-based ballistic missile defense weapons there.

The shifts come as U.S. leaders worry about escalating violence in the Middle East in response to recent attacks by Israel on Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, which triggered threats of retaliation. (1)

CBS reports: (2)

Since the Presidential campaign is in full swing in the US, it’s worth repeating that Donald Trump is thoroughly corrupt (2) and pursued a reckless foreign policy that was “isolationist” only in the far-right sense of militaristic and narrowly nationalistic. His Middle East policies were very much to the liking of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and essentially brought us to the current war situation. The cancelling of the Iranian nuclear non-proliferation agreement was particularly irresponsible, to put it very mildly.

Trump as President in 2019 expressed himself this way:

President Donald Trump warned the United States may launch a devastating military attack on Iran unless it comes to the negotiating table and drops its bid to develop nuclear weapons.

“I’m not looking for war, and if there is, it’ll be obliteration like you’ve never seen before. But I’m not looking to do that. But you can’t have a nuclear weapon. You want to talk? Good. Otherwise you can have a bad economy for the next three years,” Trump said during an interview with NBC’s “Meet The Press” airing Sunday. (3)

But the current policy of the Biden Administration is also disastrous, a fact not changed by the near certainty that a new Trump Administration would be far worse in its handling of the current Middle East war. Biden came to office saying he would re-enter the Iranian agreement, which should have been pretty straightforward, from what we know in the public record. Biden essentially continued Trump’s policy on Iran, which was very much in line with Netanyahu’s decades-long effort to involve the US in a direct war with Iran.

Paul Pillar is one of those sounding the alarm about Biden’s current course:

The assassination in Iran of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, almost certainly by Israel or elements acting on Israel’s behalf, will have no positive effects—including for the security of Israel itself.

Instead, it will only increase further the already high potential for additional war, death, and destruction in the Middle East.

The Iranian regime will feel obligated to respond, even though the victim of the assassination was not Iranian. The attack happened in the heart of Iran, and the killing of a foreign visitor who was in town for the inauguration of Iran’s new president is a severe embarrassment for Tehran. (4)

In a twist in the propaganda battle, Israel is (informally) claiming that the assassination they carried out in Teheran was done by bombs planted in the building by Israeli agents. While Iran has been sticking to the story that it happened by a missile strike. In a departure from their1 usual assassination practice, they acknowledged that they made the Beirut strike.

Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s assassination, but comments by Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari stopped short of an outright denial.

“There was no additional airstrike, not a missile and not an Israeli drone, in the entire Middle East that night,” he said Thursday, fueling speculation that Israel could have used other means to kill Haniyeh.

Israel did confirm it carried out the strike Tuesday in Beirut that killed Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukur, along with an Iranian military adviser and at least five civilians. Israel said Shukur was behind a rocket attack days earlier that hit a soccer field in the Israeli-held Golan Heights, killing 12 children. Hezbollah denied being behind that strike, a denial that Nasrallah reiterated. [my emphasis] (5)

How the US can prevent itself from being dragged into a wider war without backing off the Biden Administration’s reflexive support of whatever Netanyahu’s government does, I can’t see at all. If every time Netanyahu escalates, the Biden Administration doubles down on its military support, then it’s Jerusalem and not Washington driving the car. This is just bad policy on the Biden Administration part, a fact not changed by the near-certainty that a new Trump Administration would be far worse.

Alan Pinkas emphasizes that the obvious conclusion about Netanyahu’s goal with the Teheran strike in particular is, well, obvious:

Israel could have killed Haniyeh anywhere in the Middle East, yet deliberately chose to do so in Iran during the inauguration. That's not daring – that's the very definition of provocative.

"This attack was a huge slap in the face for Iran's status in the region," Ali Akbar Behmanesh, a prominent politician in new President Masoud Pezeshkian's party, told The New York Times. "It humiliated our country and undermined our entire security apparatus, showed that we have serious holes in intelligence."

If the idea was to expose Iran's vulnerabilities, the depth of penetration to its intelligence and to humiliate the Islamic regime, mission accomplished. That's a good thing, right? Sure, but there's a "but" here.

Israel left Iran no choice but to retaliate, the scope of which remains the big question mark. But Israel also outsourced "escalation dominance" by handing to Iran [the] decision over whether to escalate. That's a legitimate course of policy – except that Iran may not see it that way. (6)

Notes:

(1) U.S. is sending fighter jets to boost military presence in Middle East as tensions soar. PBS Newshour 08/02/2024. <https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-is-sending-fighter-jets-to-boost-military-presence-in-middle-east-as-tensions-soar> (Accessed: 2024-02-08).

(2) Israelis told to prepare bomb shelters as Iran vows revenge for deaths of Hamas, Hezbollah leaders. CBS News YouTube channel 08/02/2024. <https://youtu.be/gYSvn7adzto?si=FLMlxaU5F9AR0Dxf> (Accessed: 2024-02-08).

(3) Debusmann Jr., Bernd (2024): Jared Kushner defends controversial $2bn Saudi investment. BBC News 02/14/2024. <https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68296877> (Accessed: 2024-02-08).

Wheeler, Marcy [emptywheel] (2024): An Egyptian Bank Claimed Details of a Suspected $10 Million Payment to Trump Might Be in China. Emptywheel 06/23/2024. <https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/06/23/an-egyptian-bank-claimed-details-of-a-suspected-10-million-payment-to-trump-might-be-in-china/> (Accessed: 2024-02-08).

Pengelly, Martin (2024): Report reveals secret US inquiry into alleged 2016 Egyptian $10m gift to Trump. The Guardian 08/02/2024. <https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/02/trump-campaign-2016-egypt-investigation> (Accessed: 2024-02-08).

(4) Matishak, Martin (2019): Trump warns Iran of ’obliteration like you’ve never seen before’. Politico 06/23/2019. <https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/23/trump-obliteration-iran-nuclear-weapons-pursuit-1376744> (Accessed: 2024-02-08).

(5) Pillar, Paul (2024): Trigger happy Israel and its thirst for revenge. Responsible Statecraft 08/01/2024. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/israel-assassinations-iran/ (Accessed: 2024-02-08).

(6) Hezbollah leader says war with Israel has entered ‘new phase’ after killings of top militant figures. CBS News 08/01/2024. <https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/irans-supreme-leader-prays-coffin-hamas-leader-haniyeh-112465960> (Accessed: 2024-02-08).

(7) Pinkas, Alan (2024): Is Israel Deliberately Provoking an Escalation That Might Drag the U.S. Into the Conflict? Haaretz 08/01/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-08-01/ty-article/.premium/is-israel-deliberately-provoking-escalation-that-might-drag-the-u-s-into-the-conflict/00000191-0e5d-dc54-a7dd-ffdfbb610000> (Accessed: 2024-02-08).