Bracing for Netanyahu’s Next Disaster

"We all know that if the United States were to end its armed supplies to Israel or provide a credible threat to do so that Israel would not be able to conduct a war anymore. So, the United States is enabling genocide, murder, and attacks on other countries," says Ambassador Chas Freeman, whose career has included serving as US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Assistant Secretary of State, in a new interview. (1)

We are in a situation where Israel is waging a long and brutal war mostly targeted against civilians. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is clearly determined to keep the war going indefinitely. Not least because once the war ends, he can expect to be kicked out of office, at which time the pending prosecutions against him will proceed. And he is clearly actively pursuing his governing coalition’s explicit program of an Israel from the river to the sea (Jordan River to Mediterranean Sea) – which is often called support for genocide against Jews when it is used by Palestinian groups or supporters.

And Israel’s new assassination strikes in Teheran and Beirut, the respective capital cities of Iran and Lebanon, make serious retaliations from one or both countries nearly inevitable. Netanyahu has been pushing to involve the US in a direct war against Iran since the 1990s. It has been a fixed goal for him. Such a war would be a catastrophe for Iran and a disaster for the US. And would have huge repercussions in other countries, including a new major round of Muslim refugees to Europe, at a time when center-right and even some center-left parties have been mainstreaming the xenophobia and Islamophobia that is the central political pitch of the far right. (With the result being to strengthen the far right.)

There is also the Joe Biden question. Biden has been giving unconditional support for Netanyahu’s military actions since last October, despite rhetorical and cynical declarations of “red lines.” The Biden Administration did coordinate with Iran on an elaborate show of force that was mostly countered by American anti-ballistic missiles.

But unless he actually cuts off military aid in significant quantities and requires significant changes in policy by Israel, Netanyahu is unlikely to take US demands or diplomatic expressions of concern seriously.

The famous Haaretz columnist Gideon Levy analyses the present situation with the military conflicts and the awful political situation in Israel in this interview: (2)

In a recent column, he discusses the increasing harshness of attitudes in Israel, referring to the Hamas Nukhba group and the recent riots by Israeli rightwingers in support of soldiers credibly accused of torturing and raping Palestinian prisoners.

We also have our very own Nukhba. And it is worse than the Hamas version. After what happened at Sde Teiman [the camp where torture allegedly took place], we won't be able to raise a hue and cry about their Nukhba's cruelty and barbarity; ours isn't any better. It's even worse because it was committed on behalf of the state, or at least with its silence and turning of a blind eye. Therefore, Israel's Nukhba is worse than their Nukhba.

The watershed was October 7, when Hamas demonstrated its barbarity. Women, old men and children were shot and killed or taken hostage. The watershed of the October 7 horrors was the reports about sexual assaults and rapes.

After a number of horror stories – not all of them – were refuted and found to have been incorrect, the reports about sex crimes remained as defining the barbarity of the Nukhba. Now we have rape by our own Nukhba. There is not just "suspicion of rape" here and there is no need to recite the prefix "alleged." Somebody raped the Palestinian prisoner who was taken to the hospital with a ruptured bowel and severe injury to his anus, and that somebody did all that to him on behalf of the state. (3)

He concludes on a bitter note:

Some day we will hear about this violence in detail. And then too, we won't feel shame. And then, too, we will understand and forgive, and perhaps we will even take pride. After all, ultimately, the IDF is the most moral army in the world. Everyone knows that in Israel. Only in Israel.

In a piece from several days ago, he elaborates on the themes of the degradation of Israeli attitudes that he discusses at some length in the Middle East Eye interview above. (4)

Oren Ziv also discusses the increasing political significance in Israel of callousness and encourage of criminal violence. Commenting on the violent demonstration in favor of accused torturers this week, he writes:

For much of the demonstration, masked Force 100 soldiers stood directly in front of the few policemen and soldiers trying to prevent the rioters from entering the base. Yet the officers on guard did very little to disperse the crowd.

The police did not use horses or water cannon vehicles — tactics that are familiar to every Palestinian, Ethiopian, or ultra-Orthodox Israeli who has dared to protest. Even after demonstrators breached the entrances and broke into Sde Teiman, and later into Beit Lid, no one was arrested or even identified by the police. Only after many minutes, soldiers, some with shields and clubs, forcibly evacuated the rioters from Beit Lid. During the mass anti-government demonstrators in 2023, some protesters were stripped of gun licenses and others removed from army reserve duty after being arrested; it is clear that none of this will happen to Monday’s rioters. …

From the ground, it was clear that the police simply did not want to evacuate the demonstrators from Beit Lid. And earlier in the day, when protesters broke into Sde Teiman, the police reportedly refused the army’s request for assistance. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has now demanded an investigation into whether National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir deliberately hindered the police’s response to the riots. [my emphasis] (5)

But he also stresses that this kind of attitude has been systematically encouraged by the IDF and political actors:

This marks a new low point for Israeli public discourse, though given the public climate since October 7, it is not surprising. For decades, too, in the vast majority of cases, soldiers are almost never held responsible for committing horrific atrocities — even those that amount to war crimes. According to multiple +972 investigations, soldiers in Gaza have been given the immunity to loot, vandalize, shoot, and kill at will – all with the knowledge of their commanders on the ground.

In the Israeli media, the riots at Beit Lid were portrayed as a struggle between the army and the police, or between the Israeli state and the mob. But this is far from the full picture. The army’s policy of turning a blind eye to right-wing militias in the West Bank and supporting the actions of lone soldiers, along with the systematic killing and destruction in Gaza, is precisely what has led us to this situation, whereby the interrogation of soldiers on suspicion of rape provokes such violent protests, backed by government figures. [my emphasis]

American action

The Biden Administration can’t restrain Netanyahu’s war activities and his instigation to wider war without imposing actual reduction on aid to Israel. Because unless it starts doing that in a way it has not done during the last ten months, it’s hard to see why Netanyahu’s government would take any of its threats seriously.

Unless he should for some reason decide to step down as President, Biden will be heading the US government for almost six more months. Unless the US changes course significantly and start using its big leverage over Israel to corral Netanyahu’s warmongering and actions that could produce a wider war, there is still a lot of damage to American interests that the Netanyahu government can still do.

Trita Parsi spelled out four ways the assassinations can benefit Netanyahu: (6)

1. It kills the ceasefire talks
2. It may kill renewed US-Iran diplomacy
3. It may get Netanyahu the war he's been looking for [i.e., between the US and Iran]
4. It corners Kamala Harris

The risks of a war between Iran and the US are real, especially if the Biden Administration continues its extremely deferential posture toward Israel’s war. As Parsi puts it:

The attack has been deeply embarrassing to Tehran. It has destroyed Iran's claim that it restored deterrence vis-a-vis Israel following Israel's bombing of Iran's consulate in Damascus on April 1. It has signaled Iran's allies that they are not safe - not even in Tehran - and that Iran cannot protect them. Iran is, as a result, very likely to retaliate. As a result, Netanyahu has likely triggered an escalatory spiral that can result in a full-scale regional war that likely will drag the US into it as well.

Notes:

(1) Amb. Chas Freeman: Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh - New Devastating Escalations. Dialogue Works YouTube channel 07/31/2024. <https://www.youtube.com/live/V1exlWPj6fA?si=5dxsp369cwuiPU9A> (Accessed: 2024-01-08).

(2) Netanyahu's end game: Why Israel assassinated Hamas chief in Iran: Gideon Levy-The Big Picture. Middle East Eye YouTube channel 07/31/2024. <https://youtu.be/M9JB8jMu3lk?si=uBvBJrsaurpLnevP> (Accessed: 2024-01-08). Levy makes a somewhat cryptic comment in this interview that he does not think Netanyahu wants a wider war. But it was in the context of stressing that Netanyahu is determined to remain in power, so he may mean that he sees the latter as Netanyahu’s overriding motivation.

(3) Levy, Gideon (2024): Israel's Version of the Nukhba Is Worse Than Hamas'. Haaretz 08/01/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-08-01/ty-article-opinion/.premium/israels-version-of-the-nukhba-is-worse-than-hamas/00000191-0a8c-de2c-a7ff-4ead436e0000> (Accessed: 2024-01-08).

(4) Levy, Gideon (2024): In Gaza, Israel Lost What Remained of Its Humanity. Haaretz 07/24/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/2024-07-24/ty-article-opinion/.premium/in-gaza-israel-lost-what-remained-of-its-humanity/00000190-e62f-d469-a39d-e6bf754e0000> (Accessed: 2024-01-08).

(5) Ziv, Oren (2024): A riot for impunity shows Israel’s proud embrace of its crimes. +972 Magazine/Local Call 08/01/2024. <https://www.972mag.com/sde-teiman-beit-lid-protests-detainees/> (Accessed: 2024-01-08).

(6) Parsi, Trita (2024): X/Twitter 07/31/2024. <https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1818511438668849329.html (Accessed: 2024-01-08).