Kamala Harris is clearly the most likely Democratic Presidential candidate

Kamala Harris seems to be very much the favorite to replace Joe Biden on the Democratic Presidential ticket. It does seem a bit unseemly for Democrats to be saying “unity, unity, unity” behind Harris. Because it seems like only a couple of days ago – actually, it was a couple of days ago, the normie Democrats were telling Democratic partisans that what we needed “unity, unity, unity” behind now-lame-duck President Joe Biden.

Bernie Sanders and the “Squad” social-democratic types in Congress also took the public position of sticking with Biden right up until his resignation announcement. There are two obvious reasons for that. One is that Biden has been more prolabor than any Democratic President since Lyndon Johnson. And for all of the progressives’ differences with him, Biden did move away from the “neoliberal” economic dogma to more Keynesian economic including “industrial policy.” He’s been very good from a progressive perspective on union-specific issues and on antitrust issues. And they also had a tactical reason to stick with Biden to avoid charges from normie Democrats that it was their fault if Biden had lost in November.

I’m confident that Harris will be a more competitive candidate against Trump than Biden would have been in his current state of health. The polls were showing that not only was Biden on a path to lose but would also likely drag down the Democratic ticket even in safely Democratic states.

Here is some early “horserace” reporting from Steve Kornacki on Harris’ prospects: (1)

Judd Legum previews some of the oppo research points that we can expect to be used against Harris, with his own fact-checking: (2)

• The “migrant crime wave”. Which doesn’t exist. “Xenophobes lie” should be one of everyone’s main consideration in the US and European polemics over immigrants and refugees.
• She’s a woman, so she’s “shrill” and “annoying.”
• Jaleel Stallings: a Willy-Horton-type bogus accusation against Harris
• Soft on crime: When do Republicans ever not use this one?
• She’s a California hippie who want to force us all to be vegetarians.
• Harris wants to abolish private health insurance: not true. (But it’s actually not a bad idea!)

TYT’s Cenk Uygur has a passionate and informed take on the development. Cenk favors an open contest at the Democratic Convention next month. (3)

Here’s a roundup of some of the international reaction to the news that Biden has stepped out of the Presidential race: (4)

That clip also includes some discussion about European countries’ concerns about a new Trump Presidency. European leaders are mostly want careful about crassly injecting themselves directly into domestic politics in the US.

But what US citizens decide in November will have a major impact on Europe. Top of mind for most ministers: the fate of Western support for war-torn Ukraine.

Trump's claim that he could swiftly end the war has been interpreted widely as a warning that he would pressure Kyiv to back down and hand over territory to Russia, despite being the victim of an unlawful invasion. (5)

Notes:

(1) Watch: Steve Kornacki breaks down Kamala Harris' starting point in polls as race reboots. MSNBC 07/22/2024. <https://youtu.be/N7mypX_1xOk?si=1pLzSJ7CvXmVsPYq> (Accessed: 2024-22-07).

(2) Legum, Judd (2024): A guide to the coming attacks on Kamala Harris. Popular Information 07/22/2024. <https://popular.info/p/a-guide-to-the-coming-attacks-on> (Accessed: 2024-22-07).

(3) Democratic Party Split! Find Out Who is For and Against Kamala Harris. TYT YouTube channel 07/22/2024. <https://www.youtube.com/live/XY4T69JOd8M?si=yBIsfK_Py7gO4yj9> (Accessed: 2024-22-07).

(4) Global leaders react to Biden‘s announcement to step back from presidential race. DW News YouTube channel 07/22/2024. <https://youtu.be/CBlsa0eScJ4?si=DsQaizewEdhKOk4a> (Accessed: 2024-22-07).

(5) Birchard, Rosie (2024): Europe treads carefully as Biden ends US reelection bid. <https://www.dw.com/en/europe-treads-carefully-as-biden-ends-us-reelection-bid/a-69730794> DW News English 07/22/2024.