There are various reasons why Benjamin Netanyahu would like to keep a state of actual war going for months more. Not least of them is that as long as he remains Prime Minister, his prosecution on corruption charges cannot proceed under Israeli law. And since Donald Trump is ever more deferential to Israel that Biden has been – and it’s hard to top the amount of deference that Biden has shown! – he also has a policy incentive to get Trump back in the White House. And the unpopularity among Democrats of Biden’s let-Netanyahu-run-wild policy looks at the moment to be the single issue most likely to cost Biden the election by depressing Democratic turnout.
Beyond that, Netanyahu’s decades-long strategy of trying to diversify Israel’s trade relations so as not be so dependent on US trade, while also keeping uncritical US military and economic support going, and avoiding external pressure against the authoritarian, Obanist kind of governance he prefers for Israel – that also depends in the immediate future on getting Trump into the White House.
Amos Harel reports:
These remarks didn't sound like they were off-the-cuff. It appears that some members of the General Staff, which is now at a low point over the war investigations and Halevi's controversial senior appointments, are identifying a possible exit point: Instead of treading water in the Gazan trap, Israel will strike a decisive blow on Hezbollah and start dictating the course of events, instead of being dragged into them.If the following observation of Harel’s is correct, that doesn’t say much about the moral or strategic calculations of the Biden Administration: “The American concern about a regional war, with Lebanon as the focus, is greater than the concern aroused by continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip.”
The thinking goes, it seems, that it would be possible to demonstrate to Hezbollah the magnitude of the price it would pay if an all-out war erupts, thereby causing the organization's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, to blink and retreat.
The danger, of course, is that Israel won't be able to control the flames. There is an experienced leadership on the other side, which, despite its radicalism, doesn't tend to make unconsidered moves. Presumably, Nasrallah has also prepared his war games, and is ready for scenarios of "incidents and reactions." (1)
The approach of the Trump Administration, one continued by Biden, was to work out regional security arrangements with Israel and the nations around it, and to just let the Palestinian question be handled by the Israelis seeking to have permanent control “from the river to the sea.” This approach is not working out well at the moment.
Reuters has an explainer on Hezbollah and Israel:
Israel has long viewed Hezbollah as the biggest threat at its borders and has been deeply alarmed by its growing arsenal, and the foothold it has established in Syria. (2)At the same time, it’s worth remembering that Hezbollah is closely allied to Iran, which Israel also views as a serious threat, though it Hezbollah that is currently engaged in military conflict with Israel.
Hezbollah's ideology is largely defined by conflict with Israel. It was founded by Iran's Revolutionary Guards in 1982 to fight Israeli forces that had invaded Lebanon that year, and waged years of guerrilla war that led Israel to withdraw from south Lebanon in 2000.Notes:
Hezbollah deems Israel an illegitimate state established on occupied Palestinian lands and wants to see it gone.
(1) Harel, Amos (2024): Brinkmanship Between Israel and Hezbollah Could Push Both Sides Over the Edge. Haaretz 06/06/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-06-06/ty-article/.premium/brinkmanship-between-israel-and-hezbollah-could-push-both-sides-over-the-edge/0000018f-e9f1-dc46-a5bf-f9f58e310000> (Accessed: 2024-07-06).
(2) Explainer: Is the Hezbollah-Israel conflict about to spiral? Reuters 06/05/2024. <https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/is-hezbollah-israel-conflict-about-spiral-2024-06-05/> (Accessed: 2024-07-06).
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