Biden, Bibi, and the escalating Middle East war

The title of this FRANCE 24 report asks a question of very immediate relevance to the widening war in the Middle East, "How far could it escalate?" (1)

Laura Rozen quotes from Joe Biden’s official statement expressing supposed sorrow over the Israeli murder of seven World Central Kitchen workers even though his Administration continues to back Israel’s war on civilians in Gaza and its starvation campaign by continued provision of weapons to Israel. And she notes: “But numerous humanitarian groups said Israel has repeatedly killed aid workers—over 200 in Gaza in the past six months--despite supposed de-confliction processes, and rarely investigated or offered explanations.” (2)

World Central Kitchen said that its staff members killed by the IDF strikes were Australian national and WCK Gaza team leader Lalzawmi “Zomi” Frankcom, age 43; three British nationals working as the group’s security team: John Chapman, age 57, James Henderson, age 33, and James Kirby, age 47; Polish national Damian Sobol, age 35; U.S.-Canadian dual citizen Jacob Flickinger, age 33; and Palestinian member of the World Central Kitchen relief team, Saifeddin Issam Ayad Abutaha, age 25.

“These are the heroes of WCK,” World Central Kitchen CEO Erin Gore wrote on the group’s Twitter account. “These 7 beautiful souls were killed by the IDF in a strike as they were returning form a full day’s mission. Their smiles, laughter and voices are forever embedded in our memories.”

The Biden Administration has made sensible-sounding statements over the last six months of this war about the need to avoid a broader war and calling on Israel to show restraint and to stop blocking food supplies from entering Gaza. But in the six months of the war (with no end in sight), it has continued to supply Israel with military supplies despite the appalling behavior of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), which raises a real question of whether normal military discipline is seriously breaking down. (3)

Alon Pinkas comments on Iran’s possible reactions to the Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed a general of the Iranian Quds Force, Mohammad Reza Zahedi. He frames two broad views of the situation, the first of them being the view of Benjamin Natanyahu’s government:

The first is that Israel did the right and imperative thing. It has finally and justifiably decided to breach Iran's zone of immunity and shield of impunity, shattering Iran's self-perceived deterrence. This is a form of strategic proportionality: Iran, not its proxies, must be held accountable for its audacious sponsorship of terrorism, destabilization of the Middle East, and active support of Hezbollah and the Yemenite Houthis.

Israel has until now abided by the tacit and informal rules of the covert "shadow war," but no more. The attack on an annex building of the Iranian consulate hosting Quds Force commanders in charge of operations in Syria and Lebanon was a direct and explicit hit on Iran.

The second is that given the context and circumstances of the ongoing war in Gaza, this was a reckless act of premeditated escalation that could not only lead to a significant expansion of the war, but also involve the United States (depending on Iran's scale and timing of retaliation).

This presents the Americans with a precarious dilemma about how to de-escalate – a challenge it had hoped would no longer be relevant. It is. (4)

Here we have a case where not only major lobbying efforts by groups like AIPAC and the Christian Zionist CUFI (Christians United For Israel) are affecting the Administration’s high-risk, effectively unconditional support for Netanyahu’s war policies. It also seems to be affected by Biden’s own view, which much of the foreign policy establishment in and out of government accepts, that backing Israel is always the right thing to do – or at least the politically safest.

Bad assumptions based on “groupthink” have had very negative results for US foreign policy on more than one occasion. (5) And the current situation of US policy on Israel is certainly having damaging results. That are likely to get far more damaging, because Netanyahu clearly has a stake in not only prolonging the war, but in getting Biden replaced in the White House by Donald Trump next year.

Trump meanwhile is carrying on over the issue with his usual supply of bluster and demagoguery and fantasies of an easy fix. Trump knows and cares so little about foreign policy that as President he could only blunder around further. But extracting the US from its current political and international trap with Israel is a complicated foreign policy challenge that Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders know that Trump isn’t remotely capable of executing even if he wanted to. They also know that Trump doesn’t want to displease the core Republican voting block of Christian Zionists who demand unconditional support of Israel. And they know that Trump can be bribed not only in legal ways but the in old-fashioned ones as well.

Trump’s core political talent is perceptive demagoguery, to he can be expected to make vague references to magic solutions to bring about peace in the current war to appeal to conservative voters who are simultaneously generally hawkish but also operating on the idea that there are quick-and-easy military solutions to As Krystal Ball recently observed, Trump “is a purely transactional character” in his foreign policy thinking. (6)

Cenk Uygur recently expressed his dismay over the situation this way (7):

Notes:

(1) How far could it escalate? Iran vows retaliation after Damascus consulate attack. FRANCE English YouTube channel 04/02/2024. (Accessed: 2024-03-04). (So far as I’m aware, the perpetrator of the attack on the Jewish community center AMIA in Buenos Aires 30 years ago has never been clearly established; the FRANCE 24 report says that Iran was behind it.)

(2) Rozen, Laura (2024): White House “outraged” at Israel’s killing of 7 aid workers. Diplomatic 04/02/2024. <https://diplomatic.substack.com/p/white-house-outraged-at-israels-killing> (Accessed: 2024-03-04).

(3) Kubovich, Yaniv (2024): Israeli Army Sources: Gaza Aid Workers Killed Because 'IDF Officers on the Ground Do What They Want'. Haaretz 04/02/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-02/ty-article/.premium/idf-sources-gaza-aid-workers-killed-because-officers-on-the-ground-do-what-they-want/0000018e-a06e-d9c2-afbe-a8fe319b0000> (Accessed: 2024-03-04).

(4) Pinkas, Alon (2024): Israel Moves From 'Shadow War' to Direct and Explicit Hit on Iran. Haaretz 04/02/2024. <https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-02/ty-article/.premium/assassinations-leave-u-s-with-dilemma-on-how-to-de-escalate-israel-iran-shadow-war/0000018e-9ebe-d9c2-afbe-befe4fbd0000> (Accessed: 2024-03-04).

(5) Janis, Irving l. (1982): Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes, Second Edition. Boston: Houghton Mifflin

(6) Israelis MELTDOWN Over Trump Peace Call. Breaking Points YouTube channel 04/02/2024. <https://youtu.be/q1TAp52XZGI?si=mg8lx98isr07-vgZ> (Accessed: 2024-03-04).

(7) Uygur, Cenk (2024): Twitter/X 04/02/2024. <https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1775258190487384522> (Accessed: 2024-03-04).