Biden's military strike in Syria and the Iran nuclear deal

The Biden-Harris Administration has not yet re-entered the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). I realize that diplomacy can be tricky. But the US left the agreement and imposed drastic sanctions on Iran even though Iran was observing its terms and the European allies were and are very supportive of the agreement.

Stephen Miles discusses the strikes in Biden’s Syria strikes: A perpetual cycle of endless war Responsible Statecraft 02/26/2021. He refences this Congressional Research Service report, Instances of Use of United States Armed Forces Abroad, 1798-2020. He notes, "The journey from the start of 1991’s Operation Desert Storm to the present ... will take you through more than 30 long pages of airstrikes, invasions, and other instances of trying to bomb our way to peace."

The US fights too many wars.

Miles emphasizes that the JCPOA is an example of the kind of foreign policy that can move toward winding down "an endless war" in Syria and Iraq:

It was not a comprehensive peace, few ever are. Rather, it was a step-by-step process, starting by constraining Iran’s nuclear program and eliminating the risk of nuclear proliferation, that could and should have been built upon with further progress on our countries’ numerous other challenges. Unfortunately, Donald Trump chose to walk away — despite his own administration’s recognition that the deal was working — and embark on a path of “maximum pressure.” That path brought the United States and Iran to the brink of all-out, direct war multiple times during his presidency and remains one of the key drivers of the instability and conflict so violently on display this week in Iraq and Syria.

Today, as President Biden assesses his next steps, he would do well to remember how we got here, and use this opportunity to quickly and sharply change course. He should, of course, begin by ending “maximum pressure” and rejoining the JCPOA, putting the United States and Iran firmly back on the path of diplomacy. That alone, of course will not be enough to undo the damage already done not just in the last four years but the last 30. To achieve that will require the president fulfilling another campaign promise: to truly end our endless wars in the Middle East.

That will be no small undertaking, and it will require questioning and rejecting the status quo thinking that led him to his first airstrikes. [my emphasis]

Trita Parsi talks about the more specific diplomatic considerations in getting the US back into the JCPOA before Iran decides its not worth the effort, Iran rejects meeting as Biden’s slow diplomacy hits predictable snag 02/28/2021, writing that "the Biden team should have done their utmost to avoid engaging in public fights over 'who goes first' [in public steps toward reconciliation]. This is the inevitable outcome: everything becomes more politically costly. Even before real talks have begun."

Kali Robinson gives us some background on the deal at its current state in What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal? Council on Foreign Relations 02/25/2021. He warns that their is an election clock ticking currently:

Iran has called for the United States to return to the deal but has said it is not willing to discuss expanding the accord further. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told CFR in September 2020 that Iran will “absolutely not” renegotiate and that the United States should compensate Iran for damages caused by sanctions, which he says amount to $1 trillion.

However, the prospects for new negotiations could dim come June 2021, when Iran is set to elect a new president. Many analysts say a conservative, hard-line candidate will likely replace President Rouhani, whose popularity has plummeted with the unraveling of the nuclear deal.

Robinson' piece also talks about what a burden US sanction are to Iran. The mainstream foreign policy conversations tend to portray economic sanctions and embargoes as a peaceful alternative to war. But they can do severe damage and the kind of sanctions imposed on Iran are definitely on a spectrum of confrontation that could quickly turn into actual war.

And the Biden-Harris Administration did call the Syria military strike a signal to Iran.