Armenia and Azerbaijan

They aren't yet calling it a war. But Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus region have been engaging in armed conflict with each other recently over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh is legally part of Azerbaijan but has been controlled by Armenia since 1994, though Armenia has not formally annexed it.

Source: Google Maps (Captions in red added by me)

Source: Wikipedia

Politico EU has a backgrounder on the conflict: Zia Weise et al, The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict explained 10/02/2020. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan were parts of the Russian Empire. Under the USSR, Armenia and Azerbaijan became Soviet republics, and the Nagorno-Karabkh territory was assigned to majority-Muslim Azerbaijan, though the area was mostly populated by Christian Armenians.

As Politico reports, some outside powers are very interested in the conflict:

The ongoing fighting has left more than 100 people dead — the most serious escalation in years.

The two former Soviet states have clashed over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-controlled enclave internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, for three decades. But the conflict is more than a Cold War-era relic. Both sides enjoy the support of powerful backers and with the South Caucasus occupying a strategic position in the global energy market, the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan could end up reverberating beyond the region. ...

The Nagorno-Karabakh clashes have the potential to draw in larger powers — in particular Russia and NATO member Turkey, two countries that already support opposing sides in Syria and Libya.

Turkey has long been a staunch supporter of Azerbaijan: Ankara and Baku share close cultural ties, given their shared Turkic heritage. Meanwhile, Turkey and Armenia have a long history of tensions, exacerbated by Ankara's refusal to recognize the 1915 Armenian genocide as well as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The latter prompted Turkey to seal its border with Armenia in 1993, which has remained shut ever since. The two countries do not have diplomatic relations.

Russia plays a more ambiguous role in the region, maintaining close economic ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan and supplying weapons to both. Its relationship with Yerevan is deeper, however — Armenia hosts a Russian military base and is part of the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union. [my emphasis]

Putin's government sees Armenia and Azerbaijan as part of its own "near abroad," which it sees aa a legitimate Russian sphere of influence.

The Guardian is reporting that Turkey is sending Syrian fighters to Azerbaijan to participate in the conflict with Armenia. Bethan McKernan in Istanbul, (Syrian recruit describes role of foreign fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh 10/02/2020)

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) its through its Minsk Group chaired by Russia, France, and the EU "has tried and failed to bring a resolution to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh after the cease-fire in the region in 1994." (Politico) The co-chairs on September 27 called for an immediate cease-fire. But tensions are still escalating. Aljazeera reports (Nagorno-Karabakh: Fresh fighting erupts dashing ceasefire efforts 10/03/2020):

On Friday, Armenia’s foreign ministry said it was prepared to work with international mediators France, Russia and the United States to reach a ceasefire with Azerbaijan. While the three countries called for an end to hostilities, Turkey has staunchly supported its ally Azerbaijan and has repeated that what it called Armenian “occupiers” must withdraw.

“Superficial demands for an immediate end to hostilities and a permanent ceasefire will not be useful this time,” Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, was quoted as saying by Turkish state-run Anadolu news agency.

Both Azerbaijan and Turkey have repeatedly denied the involvement of Turkish forces in the fighting, as well as assertions by Armenia, Russia and France that Syrian rebels are fighting on the Azeri side.

BBC News reports, Avoiding war in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict 10/02/2020:

James Palmer also has a background piece in Foreign Policy, Why Are Armenia and Azerbaijan Heading to War? 09/28/2020:

In order to keep a stronger position in negotiations and avoid allegations of aggression, Armenia has maintained Nagorno-Karabakh as a nominally independent republic rather than incorporating it into its own territory. Barely anyone recognizes the puppet state, officially called the Republic of Artsakh. Both the United States and Russia have played a significant role in the long-running but largely futile attempts at finding a permanent resolution to the issue. On the U.S. side, Armenian Americans are a moderately influential lobbying group, but Azerbaijan has invested heavily in ties with U.S. oil companies.

In theory, the two sides agreed the Madrid Principles in the mid-2000s: Armenia gives up the periphery of territory it occupies around Nagorno-Karabakh itself, displaced peoples return to their homes, both countries and outside powers guarantee the rights of the residents of the disputed region, and eventually the status of the territory is resolved. But Armenia has no desire to give up its de facto control, and Azerbaijan has no incentive to relinquish its claim—especially as nationalism plays a critical role in keeping leaders in power in both countries, where both publics heavily oppose compromise. It’s not the only frozen conflict in the region, where the Soviet collapse has left behind many disputed territories. [my emphasis]