Planned staged confrontation on the Colombia-Venezuela border today

The PBS Newshour actually did a report on Maduro supporters, Why Venezuela's Chavistas are fiercely loyal to Maduro, despite economic crisis 02/22/2019:

The American coup attempt in Venezuela is staging a confrontation today (Saturda) that the leaders apparently hope will provoke (or provide a figleaf excuse for) an American military intervention against the real existing government of Nicolás Maduro.

Alex Daugherty and Franco Ordoñez report (Keeping up momentum in Venezuela hinges on getting humanitarian aid in on Saturday Miami Herald 01/22/2019):

... none of Venezuela’s top military leaders have publicly backed [self-proclaimed "president" Juan] Guaidó’s interim government. Russia and China continue to recognize Maduro. India is buying more Venezuelan oil. Both supporters and critics of the decision to recognize Guaidó are worried about losing momentum for elections if Saturday comes and goes without a change in the status quo, as the full effect of U.S. oil sanctions on Maduro’s inner circle will take months, not weeks. ...

Diplomats from the region are growing concerned that momentum against Maduro is slowing.

“The thought was that when the United States recognized Guaidó that things would fall apart for Maduro,” said one South American diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity because the diplomat was not authorized to publicly discuss U.S. policy. “But that hasn’t happened yet.”

The thinking in the region was that the international pressure campaign would spur top leaders of the military to turn against Maduro and back Guaidó. But that hasn’t happened yet.

After the U.S. imposed financial sanctions on PDVSA, the Venezuelan oil company controlled by the government, “we were thinking this was a turning point,” said the diplomat. “But that was weeks ago.” [my emphasis]

This coup is clearly not unfolding as its backers hoped.

There was some violence on the Brazilian border Friday, with two people reportedly killed by Venezuelan security forces. Here's professional ghoul Elliott Abrams pretending like he actually cares about how many people get killed: "Donald Trump’s Venezuela envoy Elliott Abrams, who was also in Colombia, also blasted Maduro for the clashes along the Brazilian border. Abrams said the two Venezuelans 'were killed trying to get food and medicine for their families. It’s a crime and a disgrace.'" (Jim Wyss, Guaidó makes surprise visit to Colombia as Venezuelans demand aid and Maduro digs in Miami Herald 02/22/2019)

Anne Gearan and Carol Morello give attention to some considerations that should be obvious but don't seem to be aired in most of the news reports I've seen (Trump, in risky gambit, ratchets up pressure on Venezuela as tensions flare at the border Washington Post 02/22/2019):

Elliott Abrams and other State Department officials accompanied an airlift of U.S. humanitarian aid to the Colombian border in a provocative partnership with Maduro’s political rival as tensions rise over the internal power struggle in Venezuela. The Trump administration has not said whether it will attempt to deliver the aid by force Saturday, the day when opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who is supported by the Trump administration, has said the relief supplies will cross into Venezuela.

Trump has repeatedly said that military action is an option, including in remarks Monday to Venezuelan exiles in Miami, setting up a paradox for a president who has argued that the United States wastes money and lives when playing global policeman. ...

Having leaned so heavily into the conflict, Trump risks looking weak or ineffective at home and abroad if the Maduro regime survives in the face of U.S. opposition.

The Trump administration emboldened Guaidó to declare himself Venezuela’s rightful leader last month and has helped rally international diplomatic support behind him. The White House has not said what it will do if Guaidó’s movement collapses in chaos or a bloodbath. [my emphasis]

David Smilde writes in the WOLA blog about the humanitarian aid gambit by the coup leaders (Venezuela Weekly: Battle of the Bands on the Border 2/19/2019):

AN [National Assembly] Deputy Miguel Pizarro who is coordinating the operation has said that it is the Maduro government that is politicizing the aid. The opposition would be quite happy if they could bring it in without confrontation. Yet, aid organizations such as Caritas have made clear that they would only participate in distribution of the aid if it fulfills international standards. The United Nations has also warned about politicization of humanitarian aid. Any efforts or operations on the border that appear like they are intentionally putting people in harm’s way, could generate a backlash.

• It is not completely true that Maduro has blocked all aid. He recently accepted $9 million in health and nutritional aid from the United Nations. There have also been a number of groups getting aid into the country under the radar.

Smilde also makes some points about Trump's major Venezuelan speech this week that need to be kept in mind in relation to the American-directed Venezula regime change policy:

The speech made clear that while in Afghanistan and Syria, Trump’s “America first” vision is holding sway, in Latin America policy it is his neoconservative advisors that are in charge. He represented the push for a transition in Venezuela as just the first step in an effort to free Cuba and Nicaragua as well. When that happens, he said, “this will become the first free hemisphere in all of human history.”

He also mentioned socialism from beginning to end in the speech, repeatedly tying the situation in Venezuela to those who want to install socialism in the United States, implicitly referring to some left democrats who have increasingly adopted the term for their politics.

The centrality that Venezuela has taken in his discourse, and his insertion of Venezuela into broader policy goals for the region, suggest it is unlikely Trump will put Venezuela on the back burner. [my emphasis]

All of which adds up to this: The regime change operation of the Trump-Pence Administration in Venezuela is a high-risk operation that's stalled coming out of the gate. It could lead to a serious war if the US intervenes, which would have major consequences for regional peace, refugee inflows into Brazil and Colombia, and deadly consequences for the people of Venezuela. A foreign policy of going in and breaking things is not a good foreign policy. And invading another country just because you can is literally a crime under international law.