A flashpoint coming in the Venezuela coup attempt?

My main focus of attention on Venezuela is whether the grim triad of Mike Pence, John Bolton, and the thoroughly creepy Elliott Abrams are going to get their regime change war or not.

Before getting into the more current news, I want to call attention to this long read from the longtime left journal Monthly Review: Ana Felicien, Christina Schiavoni and Liccia Romero, The Politics of Food in Venezuela 6/01/2018. It's from the middle of 2018, so it doesn't directly address the current coup attempt. But it has some historical background, including a description of how the development of the oil industry badly disrupted Venezuelan agriculture as early as the 1920s. It's a good antidote the comic-book version of conflict in Venezuela that the US mainstream media is giving us today. (The German and Austrian press reporting on it that I've seen has also often been painfully superficial.)

But, even as lazy as some of the mainstream press articles on the Venezuelan crisis may be, they are worth a close reading, especially the more important parts that are often buried deep in the articles. Ernesto Londoño, for instance, reported for the New York Times almost a week ago in U.S. Military Starts Flying Aid for Venezuela to Colombia 02/16/2019 (Spanish version here):

... the country’s large corps of generals and other high-ranking officers has so far refused to back a plan to oust Mr. Maduro and help opposition leaders convene a new election. ...

Once it became clear to opposition leaders that the military was siding with Mr. Maduro after Mr. Guaidó proclaimed himself the country’s rightful leader on Jan. 23, the opposition mounted a plan to get tens of millions of dollars worth of food and medicine into the country. [my emphasis]

Things have clearly not gone the way the coup planners in Washington and elsewhere expected. The ongoing stunt around humanitarian aid is clearly understood by Washington and pseudo-president Juan Guaidó as a political manuever, even a tripwire for outside military intervention.

But, as Londoño reports:

Rebecca Chavez, who served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Western Hemisphere during the Obama administration, said it was “very likely” that the American military would be drawn into the crisis in Venezuela as the power struggle between Mr. Maduro and Mr. Guaidó escalates.

But, she argued, “any unilateral military intervention in Venezuela would be a huge mistake.” If the American military does end up delivering aid, or takes part in a peacekeeping mission, Ms. Chavez said, it should be done as part of a coalition.

The recent election of conservative leaders in key Latin American nations, including Brazil, Colombia and Chile, makes that prospect more plausible than in past years. But so far, officials in Colombia and Brazil have signaled deep reservations about military missions in Venezuela. [my emphasis]

We‘re now into the fifth week of what may be the strangest coup attempt Latin America has ever seen. Brazil's fascist-minded President Jair Bolsonaro may be part of the (metaphorical) Nationalist International. But this shows a big problem with expecting “internationalism“ from rightwing nationalists.

Even if they are cynical and corrupt allies of the local oligarchies, they still have to think about their own national interests and their political base has to see them doing nationalist posturing. There are several obvious reasons an even half-sane Brazilian or Colombian government would be worried about this regime change operation. One is that it‘s run by Elliott Abrams. Bolsonaro may admire Abrams‘ passion for murderous savagery in politics. But the fact the Abrams is in charge guarantees that the result will be an awful mess.

Another is that up to three million refugees from Venezuela are already in Brazil and Colombia. Bolsonaro would be glad to demagogue against the refugees. But unlike Trump in the US or Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Brazil and Colombia already have real refugee problems, and an American invasion or civil war in Venezuela will magnify them. Also, the Trump-Pence Administration have been remarkably crass about the fact that Washington is running it. Even pro-American rightwing Latin American government have to worry about the precedent.

And why would Brazil or Colombia choose to kick off the invasion? They know that Trump will be quick to blame them if something goes wrong. And they would be credibly attacked politically for acting as US mercenaries.

Anthony Faiola and Rachelle Krygier reported yesterday (Venezuela braces for possible conflict ahead of opposition’s push to deliver humanitarian aid Washington Post 02/21/2019):

Maduro on Thursday ordered the closure of the border with Brazil and weighed sealing the border with Colombia, not far from this western metropolis, as his government scrambled to respond to the planned Saturday operation. Venezuela’s National Institute of Civil Aviation issued an order grounding private jet traffic nationwide. Commercial flights were still operating, though Air France said it would cancel flights to Caracas through Monday, given the heightened tensions.

In an apparent bid to counter international criticism of turning away the aid — provided by the United States and other countries advocating for Maduro’s ouster — Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, said the government on Thursday had sent the United Nations a list of medicines the country needed for “humanitarian assistance.” Maduro also announced that 7.5 tons of medical supplies had arrived Thursday from Russia and the Pan American Health Organization.

Maduro’s directives came as the U.S.-backed effort to topple his government is entering a critical and potentially more dangerous phase. [my emphasis]

And this is a pretty straightforward attempt by the Coup Triad (Pence, Bolton, Abrams) and Juan Guaidó to provoke a direct military conflict. And if they actually do send unarmed civilians to face off with the Venezuelan army, the ethics of that seem pretty questionable, to put it mildly. How many people will sign up to be human sacrifices to kick off Elliott Abrams' war with Venezuela?

Aljazeera reports on the border closure to Brazil, Maduro shuts Venezuela's border with Brazil amid aid standoff 02/22/2019:

And it really is a question worth asking. Why is the Maduro government, which Trump described in his speech this past week as a "dicatatorship" and a "socialist tyranny", allowing internal opponents to operate out in the open like this inside Venezuela?

Guaidó and his team in a caravan of 10 vans were headed Thursday toward San Cristobal, and ultimately to the Colombia border. Four buses traveling ahead of him with opposition lawmakers, journalists and volunteers were stopped in the state of Carabobo by national guardsmen throwing tear gas, said Roberto Campos, an opposition lawmaker who was on one of the buses.

Some of the lawmakers struggled with the guardsmen, who, Campos said, sought to take their IDs. A Guaidó spokesman confirmed that his vehicle was still making its way west.

The national guard used tear gas and tried to take their IDs, but didn't try to arrest them? A group headed to the border with the expressed purpose of staging a confrontation to justify foreign intervention?

I'm not suggesting that the Maduro government is angelic. Amnesty International says that it's about to put out a report on official abuses they have documented, Venezuela: Hunger, punishment and fear, the formula for repression used by authorities under Nicolás Maduro 02/20/2019. The article linked does not mention the government deliberately using hunger as a political weapon, despite the headline. It does mention that in some poor areas, "residents depend to a large extent on the currently limited state programs to distribute staple foods." The Monthly Review article linked at the top of this post contains a more detailed explanation of those programs and their background against the impact of the oil business on Venezuelan agriculture.

But back to the question why the government is letting the coup participants operate so openly, I don't have any specialized knowledge of the situation there. But it's hard for me to imagine that the government isn't calculating that the coup faction is discrediting itself with the Venezuelan public by their actions, which look from from afar like bumbling and desperate moves. (Obviously, whether the government is right in their estimate.) To be fair, Trump did call Maduro's government a "failed dictatorship." It does seem like a failure at the dictatorship game to allow an internationally back coup that is threatening to invite foreign invastion to run around and operate in public.